Member Info for optimist13

What a difference a few months make. On the 15 July Simon Morris had this to say about liquidity: " Liquidity remains a critical issue for the Group." Then on the 30 September after announcing a profit of £2m, albeit on the back of exchange rate gains, he had this to say: "The funding position of the Group remains very tight, but stable. " I have taken a lot of comfort from the use of the word stable with regard to the financial position and the fact that the working capital position at EdS is easing...code for an increase in the repatriation of funds. Let's see what next week brings.

Looks like the MM's attempt to get some cheap shares is not working. Have had to move the bid up on one buy. They clearly do not have any shares in the locker. Feeling positive and expect to see an update from the administrators of Sterling Trust on Monday, one day prior to the expiry of their current agreement with creditors.

I see money is moving from the impatient to the patient. The next two weeks could prove to be game changing for anyone lucky enough to be buying at today's share price.

Can't be long now. The administrators for Sterling Trust will have to give an update by Tuesday at the latest, and I wonder if Rurelec will make an asset sale announcement to coincide with it. I see the value of Sterling is down by over 10% against the Peso since the half year results were compiled at the end of June. This in itself will improve revenues, profit and NAV when converted into Sterling. It is also down by circa 14% against the US Dollar which will have a significant impact of the repatriation of funds w from Argentina as the loans are 'dollar' contracts.

Can't have that much stock left now as they have moved both the offer and the bid on two buys.

Leicesterboy - as I said yesterday, the Administrators for Sterling Trust will have to announce some sort of update by the 18th of this month, so the clock is definitely ticking. Add to that the requirement for Rurelec to pay back the short term loan at the end of the month and I think it is an odds on certainty that an asset sale will be confirmed very shortly. For me it is just a question of how much per share the Sterling block of shares is sold for, and to who. Given the positive developments of late, I anticipate a sale price of between 4.00p and 5.00p....but that is pure speculation on my part. Whatever the price, I am sure it will be a lot more than the share price today.

Missed this report from last month, but worth a read: http://www.gtreview.com/news/americas/us-exim-resumes-argentina-business/ Extract: The US Export-Import Bank (US Exim) has reopened financing lines for exports to Argentina after 15 years of interruption. From September 21, the bank is be able to offer financing of up to seven years to both public and private sector companies in the country, and will also consider supporting longer-termed, structured financing. This follows a US government interagency evaluation of country prospects, which found that Argentina’s improved economic and financial environment had led to better repayment prospects. “As a credit insurer, we’re seeing a lot more transactions in Argentina, both from exporters and from banks who are financing various trade transactions, largely from the US but also some from London. So there is demand in the market,” Jim Thomas, head of credit and political risk at Everest Specialty Underwriters, tells GTR. “The appetite for Argentina risk is developing, but maybe not to the point where the desire to underwrite Argentina risk is commensurate with the actual demand, which is where I think US Exim will come in and bring a great deal of benefit and utility to the market,” he adds. While US Exim is still blocked from approving transactions of over US$10mn due to the lack of a complete quorum, this reopening will send a positive message to the market about Argentinean prospects. There’s a lot of pent-up demand from US exporters and banks to do business in Argentina. Jim Thomas, Everest Specialty Underwriters The bank identifies aircraft, helicopters, satellites and farm, power, and medical equipment as the most promising sectors for US involvement in the country. It also hopes to capitalise on Argentina’s recent focus on promoting renewable energy.

Good volume again today so far with over 3m shares traded.

Just found the confirmation I was looking for. Revised date for automatic end of administration is the 18 October - see link. Expect an update very soon. https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/document-api-images-prod/docs/m2gyetrblPGyp95S5yZ1Q7NSPaZbndp2tNcSeKM677o/application-pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=ASIAJIOPP277JQEAFWTQ&Expires=1476094831&Signature=Lx4XF4u5%2BT3qlyMaXOSvo5wpsrE%3D&x-amz-security-token=FQoDYXdzEEEaDEo4E2x0w23qxyZTEiKcA1f3gt7%2BvTiLdVwtJE%2Fv9X49V004Mg7vsf1NoHijGOxNXmZPEmQr8fFsjNtgcIEKf1MibdHHOeDahYBWJ8M3jWRQ3xpVQo4%2Bas%2BhMznsJj6Kz5UmSn4A7grBmtHAp0BIHGTmosgpcq913nqwBiUes2wQ5ReyCGJmgH8%2FLLxFcgRFW3tv6huGyfy9APINn5UCH8Vt5OsghBftI7G5NjGWQ%2FyGNHsFl9hsPXaJ3Cd2o9eBfjjfg4qQmyXyKKzJaYHSSxBZzv9XRmOBKv4gNLuC922Kqh2ebgxQN%2BQqGdQHZbEGmE05eWkcdPnDDxe06SCUCPwrXA1Aq3i0lWte8Z4v7vCMOJs4yaIHowLlYpNpYw%2FmyNGWTX9mOXYldc9PQqYb%2B8sSLqn3PD3KGyjuRzKqJ8ID55%2FQqIySY0LGQH2xxLgP0QfF9RQSN2LgM3TbcPWr9ELff0LhW3KaPwsPBJQDfhnwPl8rgt%2BJ1JK4d1QV5d%2FvZDOI5UDAgvxfwkFHKUzTy7MggSQL1RyUJpqxr94qZjuEPHM3Au7TBu5fqnQo1ZftvwU%3D

Whilst the notification of administration for Sterling Trust was the 29 October 2015, the actual appointment was the 19 October 2015, and the administrators expected to complete the whole process within a 12 month period. Authority will need to be obtained from the creditors of Sterling Trust for an extension to the agreement and I would expect an update will be given prior to the 19 October. The price the Sterling Trust shares are sold for will be a key determinant of the short term share price, but given the recent improvement in sentiment coming from Rurelec, I would imagine that a price of circa 5.00p per share would be attractive to any party looking to achieve control over a company with revenues and profit in a location that has now become a lot more sought after, and at a significant discount to net assets. All IMHO, please DYOR.

Just re-reading the details of the Administration process for Sterling Trust and I see the anniversary date from their appointment is the 29 October 2016. Given that the 53% holding in Rurelec is the only real asset left in the company following the de-listing of IPSA, it will be interesting to hear what they have to say when seeking an extension to their appointment. This month could prove to be quite pivotal for the company

NMH19 - the company have given the pre-impaired value of the loan book and interest in the interim report. I have added to that figure the impairment on the asset itself which is also in the accounts. Add these together and you come to a NAV in excess of 10p. EdS is performing well and as the company have stated, the working capital requirements in Argentina have begun to ease. It was the the constraints on the working capital which prevented/slowed the repayment of loans/interest to Rurelec. Whilst the general outlook for business in Argentina is now much brighter, an added benefit for Rurelec is the continued depreciation of Sterling against both the US Dollar and Argentinian Peso. The bulk of the loans to EdS are in US Dollars and the revenues are in Pesos.

bbr391 - not sure what you mean by arbitration money. For me, the recovery in the share price will begin once the asset sale in Peru is confirmed and further news on the repatriation of increased funds from Argentina. An added bonus will certainly be if a deal is done on the outstanding £37.5m outstanding borrowings and interest due from EdS/PEL. Worth remembering that our NAV is 10p+ if you add back the impairments from Argentina.

strong finish to the day.....16.23...up 32.73%..........bring it on.

Another step in the right direction: http://en.mercopress.com/2016/10/06/argentina-forecasted-to-grow-2.7-in-2017-but-his-year-is-of-contraction-and-costly-reforms-says-imf

I should add that my reason for thinking that there could be a potential dividend payment stems from the mention of the pre-impaired valuation of the outstanding loans and interest to EdS/PEL. I was intrigued by the mention of this in the accounts, but then remembered that the company has previously considered selling off the loan book. Let's face it, Rurelec are not a bank. I don't know what discount would be applied to the loan book on a sale, but with the rates of interest currently being charged on the loans, one would expect that it would not have to be that large. £37.5m is a huge amount of money compared to the current mkt cap of the company. As I keep saying, the current share price falls way short of the current value of the assets and once confirmation is received on the asset sale in Peru and further news is released on the repatriation of funds from Argentina, then we are looking at a completely different ball game. All IMHO, DYOR.

jeddicat - there was one other item in the accounts which I did not mention yesterday which adds to my view of impending news, and this was contained in the notes to the accounts. I refer to note 5 which states: 5. Other Reserve The Capital Reduction that took place during December 2014 resulted in the creation of a non-distributable reserve. The condition for this reserve to become distributable is for the outstanding creditors in December 2014 to be settled. At the date of approval of these accounts there are some £1.6 million of these creditors outstanding. The Board of Directors consider that these amounts will be settled in the short term and therefore the £45 million remains within the Other Reserve, which is non-distributable until these settlements have occurred. I take two things from this, one is the reference to the short term, bearing in mind the accounts are to the end of June, and secondly, the company could be looking to pay out a dividend.

On the rise again. Surprised anyone selling with company making news imminent.

jeddicat - I have only ever referred to what has been stated in the half year report, which IMHO is more bullish than previous releases. With respect to the assets in Peru, the company have stated that "interest has been shown by a number of potential purchasers" and "given the progress on the sale of the Group's assets". I take this to mean they are at an advanced stage, and given that the short term loan is due for repayment at the end of the month, I conclude that the asset sale announcement is imminent. I am not expecting to see an RNS this week, but I do believe we will have a news release before the end of the month. However, that is not to say it will not land this week. Very comfortable with my investment here and with the probability of higher payments coming from Argentina, the picture is looking a whole lot brighter.

Well, by my calculations the share price is now only at an 85% discount to the net asset value if you add back the impairment charges for EdS. I am not a chartist, but it would appear we are now in blue sky territory, having broken through the recent upper band. Still a long way to go before we see anything like fair value.