Member Info for oogleflugal

Morning all. the madness continues. Today Javid is saying no need to cancel Christmas parties. Unfortunately much of the damage has already been done.business can't plan for every knee jerk reaction of this government. Restaurants holiday/travel are unsurprisingly seeing huge cancellations and travel deferrals. The market has gleefully bounced. Not because of positive news on vaccines or slower COVID rates but because of Javid's decided its ok to party whatever.Maybe some will get rebooked and then probably cancelled again next week on new media hysteria. Furlough is now gone ,so this gets a whole lot more serious. Optimistically, it should blow over in a few months rather than a few hours. Shall we pull the crackers now just in case?

T the actual words on share cast are 'Moderna boss casts doubts on efficacy of vaccines.' Thats obvious as they a have been testing them for a while but I think its too early to say for sure. I have read other reports that say they are pretty sure some vaccines will provide protections while other say the can tweak and be ready to roll within 6-12 weeks. What is clear is corona Vitus is rampant and probably higher than even uk figures are recording. Either we will reach herd immunity before new vaccines can be delivered or the other one whatever that is! Best wishes. stay strong and remember it is all bull****e anyway

morning all. Good to see all is calm here with the Red Brigade. I do remember Astra saying that it was quite likely that a mutation would eventually evade the vaccine but that having built the footprint it would be simple to tweak. Obviously the media doesn't remember any of that. Has Boris ever heard of diplomacy? He should be sectioned. We don't need a buffoon for PM on top of everything else. Baked beans for Christmas anyone?

Apologies for the ramble T. Its been a long slow decline since June.So a lot of pent up frustration as you say. I guess the signs have been there and many made the switch back to the large caps which has been a smart move in some cases but far from all. Old stalwarts, Reckits and Unilever have struggled. Supermarkets have done well despite stiff competition. Idl set to open 1100 new stores in Uk over next 3/4 years, while the big boys have been trying to offload stores. Many industrials are having to make big changes both in business direction and for climate change targets. Thanksgiving today so no US input. GL

Morning all/ T Think we are entitled to a moan. Saga hit year high towards the end of June at £4.60. Obviously people thought Covid was over. As NB points out Evergrande sent shockwaves around the world but before that Evergreen started the supply chain debacle by blocking the Suez. We have seen the end of lock down and the mega boost to online shopping. Not that is gone away but it has dramatically reduced and that makes growth charts look like they have fallen off a cliff. The disruption in travel and total lack of plan in Europe to fight Covid. The end of Merkel era. First female prime minister in Sweden celebrates by resigning within hours of taking office. Stock that report in line trading gets thumbs down, only evidence of substantial growth sees any kind of uplift. Energy crisis and inflation both have impacted . Yet the footsie somehow is over 7000. Feels like a crash has already happened. I've got about 4 stock up substantially which I'm feeling maybe I should have sold but it counterbalances some of my worst performers which are pretty bad. I do feel most of my stocks have good balance sheets are well financed, cash generating and balances that make up between 20 to even 50% of market cap. Glad I sat on my hands yesterday and can't see that situation changing until the new year or March/April. Sagas two cruise ships must be pulling in 10 million a month at even half capacity. Don't know how many trips they are currently doing though. Obviously the Rhine river cruises won't be doings well but they too have been operational. Don't think the market is seeing further than the end of the bow there. Apart from that the government has all the characteristics of some shambles of some monolithic sloth and of course Brexit is continuing to undermine business. travel. and immigration. Amazing that its taken 35 drownings to wake up the French and British governments up for a day anyway.

Morning all. Trying really hard to sit on hands again. Temptation is enormous to buy at the moment. The fact is of my three last 'bargain' purchases two are down and only 1 up after enormous fall. Let the trend be your friend and its a right barsteward at the moment! Even Sir Roger's million buy hasn't halted the decline in Saga. They have two ships sailing with 800 passengers (full complement under current restrictions). They only hold 999. which was one of their advantages over the bigger ships in current climate that hold 3-6000 passengers. Travel arm must be doing better than just paying for itself now. Never seen so many adverts for cruises on tele. Apparently quite a few deferrals due to upsurge in COVID. We had Moderna top up jab yesterday after the interview with AstraZenica CEO explaining how vaccines work on 'Tcells' and advising everyone to get jabbed again. What he didn't say was Astra's vaccine is not available for top up which caused some consternation amongst a few in in the queue. I know they say dont mix grape and grain but who knows what goes in the vein, or is it the muscle? That didn't rhyme quite so well. GL

Will be great to have you back S. We need someone with deep pockets to get the market moving again! T meant to watch Wales game after. Will try and watch it sometime . Never watched so much over the last three weeks. It was the first time 3 northern hemisphere teams have beaten 3 southern hemisphere teams on same day since 2002. Most remarkable to me was it was 1973 the last time the French beat the All Blacks on home turf. At one stage it looked like that win was slipping away too.

Morning all. market still very tetchy. Good news is more or less ignored and any trips gets stock absolutely whacked. Covid case records in Europe and the demonstrations against the smallest inconvenience like wearing a mask in public places are completely over the top. It almost seems like some people are just looking for an excuse to rebel. The way it gets reported doesn't help.
The German numbers are large but still smaller than us. When I see numbers in poorer European countries like Hungry, Bulgaria and Lithuania at nearly twice the rate per capita of the rich European countries it does make you wonder what the game is here. India has one of the lowest rates per capita in the world. That is simply not credible.
I'm still not seeing evidence of supply chains being sorted yet particularly in the manufacture of chips. This whole situation looks suspiciously deliberately engineered to me.
Everyone raving about the French performance against the All Blacks. It was impressive. I think Ireland won a more consistant match against the All Blacks last weekend.
The real titans for me were the way England managed to turn the tide on South Africa at a point where it looked like they were going to be completely overwhelmed physically. Their best performance in years, partly thanks to Farrel being immobile I feel as good a player as he has been. Smith must be our most reliable kicker now. and has given oppositions something different to calculate. And what can you say about Lewis! He definitely wants another one

Hi all. G4M the latest victim of this vicious market, Another one the made huge gains during and because of the pandemic. Edmund Shing of Paris bas released some sailing news on how much online retailers, clothes video games etc improved revenue through lockdown, Averaging a five fold increase. So hardly surprising that we re now seeing some pull back, although Brexit and supply chain also blamed.
I watched a webinar presentation of one of my stocks MWE on Monday. Am excellent presentation with anew phase in growth expected next year. The shares ended the session down slightly. IC release a a buy recommendation and the shares shot up 7% today. Just about sums up this market. A lot of pent up buyers waiting to be pointed in a promising direction. Still plenty of nervousness and low volumes

possibly ETFs Topdog? Have held investment trusts and ETFs. There are a lot of them and ETFs are increasingly popular. ETFs are very specific. Good if you want to specialise in a particular sector like metals, copper,gold, silver, food, cybersecurity, etc. Investment trusts tend to have a wide range across sectors.
Yes NB great some great performances. Enjoyed watching Georgia run a couple of tries in against France and finally Hamilton pulls all the stops out to win in Brazil to keep the championship alive. Just incredible

Morning all. NB there so made red herrings out there its hard to know what to take notice of or to ignore. Part of the equation is the capital size of a stock, liquidity and ownership of stock. LSE is doubly confusing because they don't publish every trade and they get buys and sells muddled up. Then there are late reported trades as well as deliberately hidden orders. Sometimes I have seen a lot of big trades in relatively small cap companies and the sp doesn't move. Then there are huge moves on either small volumes or even no trades at all.
Director sells can be confusing as they don't need to give reason of which there are many. Divorce, tax obligations, family reasons, health and not least because they know their company is in trouble. The last one probably is actually the least common thankfully.
With the unfortunate AVON directors were buying in only 2 months ago but the company seems to have hit a catastrophic manufacturing malfunction. One of Naked Trader's largest holdings. Notice he hasn't made much comment about that yet.
'Skin in the game' is a strong motivation for many investors but that is far from foolproof as I have discovered to my cost with SWG where directors are heavily committed at nearly twice the current share price.
Whilst momentum is an important factor particularly in short term trading, the most important factor is probably conviction trading in the longer term. It is nearly impossible to get the most advantageous trade whether selling or buying, after all why is someone buying or selling a stock to you? I have watched many professional interviews, The common theme is balance and diversification. Very few hold more than 10% in one holding at book cost. Looking back in may last 2 years of trading I took some unnecessarily large risks which luckily for me worked in a few cases but not all. On reflection I could have had mor conviction in the stocks I was buying and held much longer. I feel I've probably made a lot of paper work and achieved less. On the other hand it takes time and experience to real get to know an ever expanding market.
On the rugby front well done Eddie Jones and his troops. It was plain to see how tired and exhausted the old team was by the end of the last six nations. So this reinvigorated team looks very promising, with at last a proper full back in Steward, but many other stunning new finds too as well as some reliable old faces. Itoji old? Seems like he has been playing forever and probably needs to.

Morning all. I think avoid following anyone is good. I often feel if I did the opposite of what I say I might make a lot more money. Even the experts on Stockopedia writing professionally and Naked Trader say please don't follow my trades. This is basically because the market is so completely irrational. You can never really tell what is happening short term especially if the market reacts to daily news as it often does. NT does seem to have done suspiciously well, always seemingly being stock at the bottom, but does use a mixture of shorts to cover. PS on Stockopedia uses shorts as well , these are traders with portfolios of at least a million I think. Paul is pretty open about having had a bad run on shorts and stocks, which can be a painful combination when they both go wrong. Even good stocks fall in a bad market. I'm not too sure where we are currently. I think Bloomberg described it as 'a market waiting for a reason to invest.' Certainly the current guesswork surrounds inflation, how deep and for how long? In theory when supply chains improve that logically would have implications on restraining inflation. At the moment apparently year old cars are selling at a 30% premium to brand new cars, because you can't actually buy one because they can't source key components to make new cars. Otherwise that wouldn't make sense at all. This a situation of the world unlocking down, the UK's messy divorce and climate change deniers like Lord Lawson being found out. Currently unavailable for comment, this brexiteer still hiding in his chateau in France.

Morning all . And good to see you back M. Not sure you could have done much since the summer. I managed engage in emails with some of the directors of stock I own. Its not easy to get a lot out of them as its its difficult for them to say anything that might land them in the mire if it were deemed price sensitive. Clearly AIM has been indiscriminately sold off with few exceptions. Anic and Cnc being 2 fortunately for me. Whilst strangely the big index has held pretty firm partly thanks M&A activity and obviously the oil sector. How its that pumps are now selling diesel at £1.51. The last time fuel was that price oil was trading at about $140 a barrel., currently about 80% below that now.
Yes T sorry about Dark it could go absolutely anywhere. Its great if you guess right. M&S! Last sold just under a pound. Now they have massive debt and sold down a load of assets. Talking of debt, I did have a little chat with a nice lady at investor relations for Saga. She apologised for not answering me for a couple of weeks as she had been on holiday. Naturally I had to enquire if it was a cruise. Unfortunately not this time but she did go out on Spirit of Discovery on a UK cruise this summer and 'it blew her mind." Is that what all these old codgers get up to! Sh is looking to book another cruise this winter. I better introduce her to Paul from stockopedia because he has also booked a cruise despite seeing his PF dramatically shrink.
Saga has been a bit disappointing compared to Carnival. I can't see why Bookings exceed pre pandemic levels and they nabbed Tesco's chief insurance exec to take over from the lady he had to quit Saga in January for personal reasons. I should think they took their time to get a very good candidate to replace her. So have bought a few more while dangling around the £3 mark even though I didn't get any very helpful information about updating major share holders. Basically there are'nt any apart from sir Roger and a few left over stragglers from pre-placing which I find a tad strange. They went from a 55 million loss last year to .7millio profit this year which I find pretty impressive under their operating circumstances, Just 2 news hips will be pulling in 80 to 100 million year when fully operational. They do however have 500 million loan on ships, which are down as 700 million of assets on the books and bonds of 400 million, ouch! The insurance arm is comfortably holding them above water, so this could be a quick turn round if no hiccups. Any thoughts T? GL all

The major thing about online is there were a lot of young people stuck at home, living comfortably on furlough with not a lot to do but shop online. Its quite obvious really whats happened since. I think all these companies that have expanded off that, packaging, delivery etc could be given a wide berth. Although having said that Ebay and gumtree are set to make a killing off recycling all the stuff that was bought online!

Have watched a bitt more. Interesting that Paul says he is not tempted buy more ASC ash is price even though he sold a third of his holding. I think it will be a tough climb back. Clearly a lot of stock had an abnormal lift from the lockdowns which has not only not continued but substantially declined. If I was looking in the retail direction I would probably go with ABF and Primark, who have acknowledge the headwind of inflation but have the scale t roll out a global strategy. Still going to be hard going I suspect al though nearly up 7% on special div news, might be tempted if it falls back after that reaction. I owned a few when they were £3.00 back in the day! Paul has 40 to 50 stocks so more diversified than I realised. That gives him a reasonable chance to counter falls in big holdings like ASC and Boo, but I think it also slows any chance of meaningful gains. I'm down to 15 at the moment with about 20% cash. Growth is likely to be much more pedestrian for the next 16 months I feel .

Morning all. Suffering man flu last few days . Absolutely pole axed. Yes T I did watch some of the interview with PS. I quite admire him he is one of those made a lot lost a lot made it back again investors. He literally borrowed and scraped what he could together to get back on his feet. Looks like he is on a bit of a downward trend again. Trouble is he is quite dismissive of some very good stock as well as being a bit over confident on others especially Boo. I hold CNIC and WHR which have been really great investments for me and he was pretty sniffy about them.He has a huge following on Stockopedia and I suspect many follow him blindly. I tend to avoid stocks that I have consistently failed at. Boo being one of them. They are too wound up in social and financial credibility for me and shares just seem to move on media speculation. How's Dark going . I see Peel Hunt trash them and they crash and Bereberg say they are great and they fly again. These aren't the sort of stock like that are priced mainly on manipulation it seems.
About half my stock are doing very well with one or two doing really badly . I honestly can't explain it so I will just sit it out. Paul was absolutely right about being able to buy more or less anything and it went up two years ago. My accountant has just finalised my tax return and offset nearly all my losses from the financial crash in 09/10 . That's on my second year back in stock trading. So after a rather expensive divorce I'm hoping things have turned a corner. Trouble is you never know whats round the next one! I wish I could say I had learnt something from all this but it doesn't seem to get any easier. The fact is you have to speculate to accumulate and there seem to be increasing unpredictables. I'm sure investing was a lot more straight forward in the nineties. I find its easy to get trapped in the same stock allthe time and I feel its important to keep an eye out for new investments. My second best performing stock is now Anic, very speculative but up about 40% now. Hoping this is the next Musk/Bozo situation. I can't read this market any more, (the inflation card is the next potential problem) so just going to try and be patient and hope my under performers catch up with the good stock and that they keep going up too. GL all

Afternoon chaps. One dodgy market at the moment. More irrational than ever. The main thing that put me off Dark is Michael Lynch ex Autonomy boss ( sold to HP )and co founder of Dark. Autonomy used to trade exactly like Dark, a frigging bucking bronco of a stock. USA don't like getting stung so one Autonomy ex director is in US serving time and I believe there is still an extradition order for Mr Lynch. In theory Dark is conglomerate of Cambridge mathematicians. I imagine them all beavering away in the depths of Mr Lynch's castle never to see daylight again. Just the name suggests they are operating from the other side in some sci-fi black arts movie. Hope I haven't put you off T. I know you are supposed to make money in a volatile market anyone for purple bricks? Thats been a slow death. We have estate agents ringing all the time with clients desperate to buy . Nothing left to sell on the housing markets because the developers are happy sitting on land banks watching the price shoot up apart from having no materials to build with anyway. I thought I was making progress but that all came to an abrupt end except for Anic and its futuristic meat which has just invested 8 million in futuristic eggs, hopefully golden . GL

EQT up 25% on absolutely no news other than possibly a tenuous connection with COP26. Along with CNIC reaching new highs today has repaired some of the damage inflicted on my PF over the summer. Patchy progress but someway to go still to get back to over all highs. Hope you guys have seen some progress too.

Morning all from bright and sunny Deal. Thanks for the ditty V. We were only just discussing how often we used to eat kippers compared to now. My brother used to manage a smokerie. I dont know if it was that that put me off, but we dont eat smoked anything anymore, his house did have a bit of a damp bonfire smell about it. Fish is about the only meat we eat now mainly thanks to our fantastic monger in Broadstairs . Better start to the week . GL all

ps I don't know any jelly fish spineless or otherwise! Did have a few of the blue (moon?) variety passing through over the summer. Kept my distance. I do wonder about the sense of my posts sometimes :)