Member Info for oogleflugal

NB. If you have Lions Trust or Premier Miton, you've definitely got them. About 45% owned by Trusts, directors and family. Premier tend to be a bit impatient so hoping they don't try and sell anymore as they can hit a lot of small companies in the goolies unless they offload to another trust. Lions Trust are more into pensions so a bit more patient I hope. Bit of a mixed day. Feds next meeting not till Jan 25th. so think we will be seesawing around again fro a couple of weeks but seems a pretty good chance US rates will rise possibly sooner than March. Just as it was looking like lift off...

Morning all . Hawkish Fed withdrawing stimulus is the new mix in this compost of inflation, supply chain, and general confusion. The Japanese play isn't turning out quite how I hoped. Another long trade! On the bright side CNC seems to have overcome chip shortage . They make specialist semi conductor boards mostly for security services. Another one of these tiny British companies that play a rather enormous role in counties defence systems. Questions about growth but potential in 5g and Ai. Probably my oldest stock having traded for about 20 years, nut now a rather larger and probably more permanent holding for the foreseeable as long as they keep paying 3.5% div and rising annually. Not many stock you can say that about these days. People get impatient with it which being small makes it illiquid at times. A lot of retirements and the death of the founder havn't helped. Pretty impressive new team has been assembled and they have negotiated a difficult year with all these supply chain problems admirably. Not a quick bucker but the 20 year graph says it all really for the patient.

DJ. Just been reading up on Avon by Scot on Stockopedia and Naked trader who was bragging about how much he had invested in and now trying to say he hasn't lost that much. Really not sure about this guy. He has a huge following and has written several books about trading, Why would you do that if making millions on the stock market.

P. Scot is more of an accountant but is just beginning to understand his own fallibility for the second time. I and he have been looking at it as a possible new investor and can't say either are tempted yet. Avon is complicated not least by the director purchases at 20 and 30 quid. Do they actually know what's going on? They have on going supply chain issues that could further disrupt. The body armour failure was perhaps bad luck , but thats why products are tested to destruction. Some brokers seem to think its recoverable but likely to take time. Its a big knock. Depends a lot on your timescale and could there still some bad news to come with supply chain problems.

Not an enviable decision to make. Could your money make back some of the loss or even all of it elsewhere. Can you set it off against taxable gains this year or next? You would need to be fairly sure you are not going to compound losses in another investment. It does look as though the market is on the up. You could sell half the holding and see how that goes. Its particularly difficult to make these decisions when the whole market has been in a down trend. Have been in the same quandary myself with some smaller stocks. Easy decision for me because there has been zero liquidity in them! but also I think given a better risk appetite now appearing they should recover a fair bit. There are no crystal balls I'm afraid, all we can do is offer aspects to look at which you probably already have and relate it to your overall positions somehow. Good luck

I think you are right T on the over exuberance of travel stock. I took decent profits on Saga and BRWm this morning to kick off the new year. CIR and ATM going well and other stock showing signs of life. Over 200,000 new UK Covid cases today as expected but hard to see how we can have any realistic travel plans . Having said that we are beginning to look at a possible trip to India in June . Never been, and last aborted trip having got halfway there hitch hiking in 1972. That was fun!

Good morning all . Thanks for your replies to research areas. Seems we do fairly similar things. Pretty keen start on the markets.

Sources of information and update on Stocko. I went up 100 places on new years eve thanks to a little spurt from Saga so actually finished 1180th out of about 4000. Although I am not that confident in Stockopedia's figures. Worked out was actually up about 15%. No matter its been interesting with the analysis of our picks with a a yearly graph performance showing we nearly all had a general rise to about June and a big slide down the snake in September of varying degrees. I think the worst punter was down 70% over 5 picks. and even one guy having picked stock rated by stockopedia at an average of 82 out of 100, showed a fall of 35%. My ratings of stock averaged about 45. So my feelings on that information is they need to get a new computer its complete bunkum.
There is a lot of useful information and they do have some useful contributions from people in the industry, fund managers and freelance journalists. Probably won't renew subscription. Where else can you look? Pi World does really good interviews with small cap directors and fund managers via podcasts . Director talk also do the same and you tube also have endless interviews. I have various email free subscriptions from Edison, Ballie Gifford etc. I delete most of them before I read them. I get about 1 interesting article out of about 100. Avoid mags, papers and tip sheets. Every time a share gets tipped it goes up for about two days and then gets sold off. Piers Morgan demonstrated how that worked when he edited the Daily Mirror, if he actually did ever edit anything. So even Paul Scot has admitted he needs to alter his buy and hold strategy. I can guarantee what ever strategy you use one year won't work the next. I traded too much in 2020 and not enough in 2021. So easy with hind sight. I guess we're a bit like farmers, never truly satisfied whatever the result. There I go with the first post of the year way over length! Would be interested to hear how any of you guys gather information on potential investments. Happy hunting

Good morning all. Looks like I won't be going on a free trip for two to New York for the winner of this years Stocko challenge. I will finish about 1200 and something for my 5 top stock picks which gave me an average gain of 9.9%. Fortunately I sold them all making a much bigger gain in the Spring. It runs from Jan 1-Dec 31). The winner is running away with over 700% gain in stocks that are rated from 0 to about 20 out of 100. Many are Australian minerals with not a single British stock in sight. In fact most of the top picks are companies I've never heard of with very low stockopedia ratings. You have to speculate to accumulate and at the bottom of the tables nursing massive losses in the 4000s are similar sounding companies with similar ratings as one would expectt. Also a fair few in the 20% gain area for investor picks of supermarkets, insurance and energy discovery stocks. Retail picks obviously didn't do at all well this year. It has undeniably been a year for the FTSE 100 crawling to 7,400. That doesn't account for the worst performers exiting the 100 and the best entering the 100. So in my view that is a totally false figure which despite that , over 21 years a gain of about 5%. In the words of Frankie Boyle 'Its manipulation of manipulation'.
Look forward to chipping away at the coal face with you all next year! Good luck, Good health, and a Happy New Year O

Thank you all for your company and good humour over this testing year. May my posts be shorter and our rising trends be longer. S don't venture too far in your vintage automobiles. I think the emergency service wait times maybe a bit stretched! Merry Christmas everyone O

Afternoon. all. Long walk this morning along a misty deserted coast. Not even many golfers out today. So Smokey really enjoyed his run. Dow expected to rise for 3rd successive day following on the Asian tentative climb. Seems to be a lot more relaxed about COVID although the share volume of patients is a concern still. My eldest son is not sure if he had it having had about four tests. 1 inconclusive, 1 positive and 2 negatives. Just drip feeding a bit more in each day now.

Dow seems happy. Asia held its ground and so did the FTSE. Mcro and Saga rebounding well from sustained sell off. Hope it continues. Omicron is not the only drag on the market though. Economic stimulation is finished apparently. Rishi has come up with £1.6 billion to help hospitality who have had the rug pulled from under them. Its a very mixed bag. Hopefully we are set fair for Christmas but should all kick off again in the New Year. Guess the markets will be open most of next week. Not a lie about the short term. Longer term I am really excited about my holdings. Trouble is it could take some of them a couple of years at least to reach full potential.

DJ. Yes the great tax swindle. You need a form which you can find online I guess. Should make a list of foreign dividend companies. Also capital gains tax exemption could apply. IAG, Spanish tax rules apply. Ferexpo, Swiss Tax rules apply. Seems to depend on where the headquarters are based and in which country they opt to pay tax. Its quite ridiculous. I think its more trouble than its worth to be honest, except in the case of Ferrexpo I think I lost over 35% of £400!

Seems my last post didn't make it. Well done NB and others on GGP. Basically I said when the market moves you have to react to it, having said I wouldn't buy till the Spring. So I bought back Saga just below my sell price as well as a few other things. Still a bit in the tank for New Year dip.

DJ. Well advised not to invest in areas you are not sure about. For me its about diversification rather than bravery. There are a whole load of extra risks to factor in investing abroad, currency, geopolitics etc. It also presents unique possibilities. Japan have had a torrid time since the 1980's, but since 2000 they have been a steady rise, largely to do with robotics and Ai, but because of that other areas of business have rebounded too. I only invest in Japanese investment trusts who generally have some Japanese management too. Investing abroad does require careful investigation and its taken me a long time to consider. There are also many uk listings that are basically foreign companies. That is because the London Stock exchange is still one of the leading global houses. I'm probably about 15% invested abroad but all on uk stock exchange including exposure to South Africa , Namibia, Israel, USA, Holland, and Japan. Even considered a JP Morgan trust in Russia JRS which has just settled back to the price I first looked at in the spring. Wont be doing that one though, that is an unnecessary risk for my liking

I've taken a few positions in Japan Trusts again for the first time since the summer. The market here doesn't seem to have caught up with The Nikkei rebound so hoping for some advantageous NAV values later on. I'm all for optimism too T! Nothing to gain without risk

Thats a pretty sound take T. I would agree totally with you synopsis. GL all

Morning all. Looks like a rally is on the cards. Asia has rebounded strongly. Stockopedia guy is ranting about buying first thing and taking leveraged positions. USA rebounded strongly apparently, by which he means it was only down 400 points recovering from being 700 down at one stage. I think he's taken leave of his senses and not what I would expect from a supposedly professional viewpoint. The herd will follow and fingers will get burned and Stockopedia putting up their prices next year. Best of luck with that.
The good news is Omicron doesn't appear to have increased and deaths reported were 44 if correctly reported yesterday. I do wonder how accurate the numbers reported abroad are compared to the UK. I think it it is important to look at the annual reported deaths over the years in each country to get a better picture of what is actually happening.
The other important thing to remember that seems to have escaped Paul this morning is the number of increased profit warnings that he has been reporting on himself. Omicron is far from the only factor in market turmoil. It will however be good ro see some sort of relief bounce, GL

I did a Christmas morning bake for six years when I had my mcro bakery running. Actually I very much enjoyed that. After baking stuff for the restaurant, in went the turkey and we all went down the pub with our goods for a beer. Quite miss that! Not quite meals on wheels. Speaking of MCRO, just noticed big director purchase, should put a smile on T's face.

Good to hear M on both fronts. We used to have an 'act local, think global' mantra 20 years ago. Its got to happen with all this trade war nonsense, never mind carbon foot print. Horrible to hear about this octopus farm idea in Spain when we are so close to bringing lab grown sea food to market next year from Bluenalu. Its actually Tuna they grow now, but any species of fish meat will eventually be possible.

Bag luck M. Hope he makes a speedy recovery. The futse made some kind of recovery, so not as bad as it might have been. Dow still flailing around another 1.5% drop. Be interesting to see how that goes later. Different forces at work here so difficult to say which is the biggest drag, COVID, inflation rate rise in march for USA, or supply chain disruption till 2023. Some one in the trade reckons the container and shipping costs has added about $400-$500 on a new sofa! GL

Morning all. The final stretch to Christmas. Japan takes the biggest hit so far somewhat surprisingly. The one place I was thinking I put some money, so glad I held off there. Unfortunately this is increasingly the case with my holding off. I will miss out at some stage. The trouble is in a volatile market is judging when the trend has changed. I think the trick is to start drip feeding just before the bottom which I would guess might be late January /early February. That could change over night either way.
I see Brian May has paid he price having been isolating for 20 months. Goes out for a select private dinner and eight of them down with Covid. He seems to have it quite bad, not sure which strain. Best wishes to him and anyone else who gets it.
Happing Xmas shopping T and anyone else venturing out. Do take the utmost care . BW O