Member Info for OofyProsser

WG818: the previous management (there’s been a complete clear-out, really, apart from Carlos) was derisive in discussing the skills of Wingas and its predecessors in title at Saltfleetby as to mapping and interpreting seismic and in drilling wells. Then they do one of their own, dismissing the cautionary advice of better-informed observers, to whom they referred as Martians, and it took several times as long, at several times the expense, as they, the management, had confidently predicted. I agree with you, Wingas got it right. No one is interested, apparently, in asking the management what that sidetrack cost. A sensible shareholder would be very interested in that information. The ex-Wimgas management were probably cheering on Lord Lucan when the gas price got up briefly to 800p but the amusing but hapless Earl missed it by a few months and shareholders have been paying the price ever since.

Lots of small investors here are impressed with the gross turnover figures being bandied about. After the royalty, and, much more importantly, the purchase of further capital equipment at Saltfleetby, the gradually dwindling gas flow won’t get near the cost of the planned investment. Unless, of course, the gas price takes another big hike upwards. It’s just a gamble, isn’t it? The supporters here would be more honest, really, if they made it clear that this is the whole of the investment case for Angus.

HITS: yes, there’s little mention here of falling quarterly production or the fact that, while forward contract volumes start to fall off soon, the contractual price has reduced for the next six months to 36.5p (is it?). I seem to recall Lord Lucan ages ago referring to Angus’s prospective operating breakeven as being in the mid-20s - that was before they took the £12mm. loan, if memory serves. In order just to maintain current production levels (which at about 7mmscfd seem to me to be way below earlier expectations for three wells and two compressors) they are planning to drill more wells. Those had better find gas, and at quantities that justify the cost of the drills. I’m not convinced that their experience in the drilling of the sidetrack (which seems to have been done by completely different personnel at Angus) is going to prove of huge use, given the heavily faulted nature of the field. Certainly, Wingas didn’t fancy it.

The overdue loans haven’t gone away. According to Vast itself, there’s still only one way they can be repaid (from the proceeds of the sale of the parcel of diamonds allegedly still on a shelf at the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe). Vast still exists day to day through the forbearance of its lenders. Yes, there’s going to be another placing soon but no, it won’t be enough to do more than keep the lights on and salaries paid for another few months. Yes, Vast has assets but if it can’t run them at a profit nor sell part of them to repay debt, its only option is share issue after share issue.

Re David Jones’s purchases: if Peter Tork, Laurence Naismith and Micky Dolenz should appear on the share register, will that constitute a concert party?

Ilovewhelks: it’s not about talk at all. It’s about gas flow, the gas price, the depletion rate, the cost of replacing the depleted gas, the cost of drilling new wells and the availability of kit, plant downtime and the details of the new hedge contracts, which have not been revealed, and the terms of the Trafigura offtake agreement. Among other things. In other words, numbers. Angus can’t afford meaningful acquisitions with their current cash and cash flow. You’ve got to hope that the new Board is good at identifying available bargain assets that everyone else has overlooked. And/or that the gas price will be a good deal higher as we go into the Spring and Summer.

The thing about buying cheap-looking assets is that if they’re cheap to Angus, they’ll be far cheaper to a larger company with access to lower-priced debt. That was the trouble with Saltfleetby. No one who could afford it wanted it. Angus had to borrow at rates that gave all the profit on it to its lenders. If you want to stump up yet more money in share placings to allow the Board to do it all again, good luck to you. AIM relies on a reasonably fast turnover of subscribers. Suspension of disbelief lasts only as long as you have money left to invest.

WG818: I think Mr. Zielicki, as a last-minute replacement for Carlos, was unprepared. You’d have to be a really thick mug to be impressed with his references to the “profit” on the write-back of the previous year’s paper losses on the hedge contracts. I couldn’t decide whether he himself believed this was real money that Angus could draw on or whether he was dim enough to believe investors could be persuaded that this was the case. I thought he was hopeless and he expressed himself, haltingly, in terminology one would expect of a below-average articulacy Home Economics graduate of one of the new “Universities”. Sort of. I doubt we’ll see a repeat performance from him.

HITS: you are too kind. But I differ with you on the subject of your comparison of the new Pen Holder with his predecessor. The new one is dull, grey and an outstanding Company Man who must be pretty poor company at a dinner party . His predecessor, by contrast, was amusing and leery. His performances when interviewed by Katy were particularly entertaining.

Otherwise, I take your point. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss. I’d rather spend an evening st the Club with the old one than the new one, that’s all.

Organic growth means growth from your existing assets. Saltfleetby is an increasingly depleted asset which will swallow up all their earnings merely to stand still for a few more months at a time. Inorganic growth, meaning growth by buying assets, will only be affordable through major new share issues or unaffordable debt and shareholders will be relying on Mr. Herbert’s and Mr. Zielicki’s competence in identifying undervalued acquisition targets. Good luck with that. Saltfleetby is Angus’s only source of cash flow and its earnings are all going to go on maintaining an otherwise dwindling gas flow and paying off loan interest and capital. All their hopes of staying in business are predicated on a significantly higher gas price.

It doesn’t really matter what impression they made in the presentation, though I thought it was a rather dull Panglossian puff piece. The underlying fact is that unless Angus quickly makes a good deal more from Saltfleetby than it's currently making, its shareholders are on a hiding to nothing.

Ross Pearson was with Star Energy (mkt cap. £12mm) until December 2023. He appears to have jumped out of the fire into the frying pan.

Yes, Bubblepoint. And the only new info was that geothermal is back on the stove. Miles back. Mr. Herbert was OK, he’d probably written the presentation but Comrade Zielicki, drafted in presumably to speak for Carlos, seemed not to have thought much about it, sort of, in advance. The new management has reversed course on dilution. Any new spending once the small loan surplus is exhausted will be paid for in shares. Then off they’ll go, chasing more unicorns round Poundland for all they’re worth - you saw the pictures, now here’s the bill. By the way, we may need a share consolidation when the price reaches 0.22p. Well, if you want a market cap. of £100mm.+, you’ll have to pay for it, won’t you?

I didn’t take part but did the Directors who said the shares were worth 5x their current value say how many they were buying?

Schadenfreude.

Ocelot: that purchase of 10% of the outstanding shares on behalf of the EBT, in order to get the recent resolutions through, was a paper transaction. It was financed by a loan from the trustees. What are the chances they’ll be cancelled in the event of insolvency?

Asimpleinvestor: yes, quite. I dare say they’ve tried to raise money through asset sales but been given the horse’s laugh wherever they’ve pitched up. They’re in an extremely miserable situation, other than that the owners of the company are continuing to pay their generous salaries and emoluments.

Bubblepoint: I haven’t noticed an improvement under the new management. It still seems that it’s being groomed either for a very cheap takeover or the even cheaper exercise of their loan covenants. Tomorrow evening’s presentation should be interesting. I wonder if anyone will have asked what the total cost of the sidetrack was, or what are the terms of the Trafigura offtake agreement and the replacement for the Mercuria forward contracts. Or why it has been unnecessary for the apparent concert party of Aleph, Kemexon, Knowe etc. to make a formal bid for Angus.

Dear oh dear, GSA Capital Partners really don’t fancy the prospects here very much, do they?odd that they’re involved, really, it’s a tiny position by their standards. Possibly a fund manager having some fun on his personal account.

WG818: well done! Yes, now we’re left with a board, with one exception, with Russian connections. How long will the exception remain? He knows the detail of what’s happened here, so it may well be expedient to retain him.

Ocelot: very amusing. The Earl of Clanwilliam can take great satisfaction from the debt-ridden balance sheet, the management’s decline into Trappist silence, the lateness of and over-spending on everything they've attempted, the huge increase in shares in issue - with more to come - and the all- time low share price. Good stuff. It didn’t take him long to get the hang of AIM, did it?

Stockportedd: what would Vast use for money to do any of these things? And if any of these assets had a positive value, why have they not sold something/farmed it out. Vast themselves have said they’re reliant on the parcel of diamonds just for repayment of their long-overdue debt. Where they’ll get cash to invest in its absence is not clear, they’re living hand to mouth as it is.

Do you seriously believe they’re going to get the parcel of diamonds? And if they do, will they be the same diamonds they deposited more than ten years ago? I should have thought these considerations should be at the forefront in any investor’s analysis of the investment case here. Call it deramping if you like - it’s you who’s losing money in this. My view hasn’t changed since I first looked at it a couple of years ago, when the share price was at 0.30p (pre-consolidation).

It appears that GSA Capital are not expecting good news on the parcel of diamonds front in the near term.

HITS: he’s been a stockbroker and promoter. Always on the sell side. In other words, he works for the companies he’s promoting, not for investors. That’s all you need to know about Malcy. His interviews with The Earl of Lucan were just embarrassing. I’d rather see Mrs. Merton interview these AIM CEOs.