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The wording of these reassurances about the debt package is not much different from that of the reassurances in 2020-21 about the previous one. That one went on so long that Angus had little choice but to accept the final terms, which were among the main causes of the company’s present predicament. The longer they go on, the worse Angus’s bargaining position will get.

What’s the betting now on a placing to tide them over the extended discussions which are still underway?

Nevergonnaretire: it seems to me that nothing whatever has changed. All that’s happened is the passage of time and the gradual, inevitable realisation on the part of investors that Vast is hanging by a thread. If that.

Arkush: dead cats don’t jump. If you drop one from a height, it will land with a thump and bounce half an inch or so before smartly falling back to the ground. It only happens once.

Before they get the Accounts out, this Global Re-financing has to be finalised and the terms published. This is by far the most important next step for Angus. From its proceeds they have to pay the following:

The Mercuria loan balance

The Bridging loan balance. Plus fees on arranging the above.

Mr. Forrest’s outstanding payment for his SEL shares

A substantial payment to Mercuria for giving up their very lucrative remaining monthly forward contracts

An 8% of turnover ongoing royalty to Mercuria as soon as the debt is repaid.

New forward contracts in Trafigura’s favour over future production. There will be further arrangement fees for settling all this.

I can’t see what will be left for growth or to cover working capital needs, or the new compressor, or the new well. Angus’s running costs appear to be pretty high. The gas price may be higher than predicted by the earlier CPR but the gas flow is lower. The field appears to be depleting as predicted. Costs will continue to rise to compensate and production will continue to decline. Any shortfalls will have to be met by further calls on shareholders. Placings. If the Global Re-Financing is agreed, it will be interesting to see what the auditors have to say about going concern status. The oil “assets” are a red herring. It’s not even clear that a £20mm. re-financing to a company in this position will be seen as a good risk. The people involved in the Aleph consortium must be hoping it will.

Of course, it’s possible in the circumstances that the existing lenders will give Angus a further grace period. But the added costs of the fees on this option will make the effective interest rate extremely high. There are good reasons why the share price is at an all-time low.

Yes, HITS. Though I’m not sure they're desperate, they clearly haven’t sold yet, so haven’t got a loss. Give it a few days.

Ah, thanks everyone. I was being obtuse then.

Thanks Singhie. It’s the mmscfd figure that I’m interested in. But what is 0.2101?

Mirador: thanks for replying. It’s the figures themselves that I don’t understand. 7.1759mmscfd is the latest daily output figure from Singhie. How does the 0.2101 correspond? Am I being obtuse?

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Asimpleinvestor: re Mercuria having already agreed repayment terms, are you referring to the $50,000 from each sale of Baita Plai concentrate? If so, it’s going to take a very long time. The two lenders shared a very generous fee for agreeing the extension, as outlined in the 6 November RNS. I dare say the lenders would be prepared to accept similar fees every quarter, it’s a very lucrative form of lending when added to the loan interest, but how are Vast going to be able to afford it? The parcel of diamonds, the only potential source of money sufficient to repay the loans, appears as elusive as ever. Vast can’t raise equity capital with its share price where it is. Sooner or later, probably sooner, Vast’s position will meet the insolvency criteria.

SillyButtons: yes, the hedges seem to be one of the items still under discussion. The Global Re-financing is not, as they claimed earlier, in the documentation stage, it’s at probably the most difficult stage of detailed negotiation. The original Senior Loan took from November 2020 to May 2021 to negotiate. This may be harder, since there are hard nosed entities on opposite sides of the table vs. just the one in 2020/21. Though there’s still only the the one entity bending forward over the end of the table.

Mercuria will be weighing the risk in keeping the loan in place for another year or two, plus the risk of the spot price for gas falling below the forward contract prices, plus the early gains to be had from the royalty against what? Another year of decent interest on their loan and the chance that gas prices will take off again. If they can exact a good price for settling the forward contracts early, I should think they’ll be happy. I suppose it will depend on their view of gas prices and therefore what they expect from the hedges, against early royalty payments while production remains at reasonable levels. There’s scope for quite a lot of negotiating in all this.

SillyButtons: I think we’ll have to await the finalised agreement. It’s not at all clear currently, is it? It’s odd that they’re still negotiating the terms, when just a day or two they were finalising the documentation. It seems there’s still some way to go before there’s a completed loan agreement. Mercuria will want their pound of flesh. There’s been no discussion of their royalty either, has there?

Oh dear. They’re on the website page now.

Brockam! A new compressor, and a new well next year. But look at the comments on the hedges! Investors will be forgiven for wondering where is the upside in this. But it appears that Angus have no choice, they have to arrange the re-financing. Anything could happen here in the next four weeks.

Oktane: I think it’s quite likely that that’s the intention. With a huge rescue placing at a much lower price, someone may be able to acquire this very cheaply in the near future. Getting Mercuria out of the equation will be expensive, and Angus won’t be able to get a massive placing away at the current price. Low priced shares may be placed with existing large shareholders, requiring a bid. I hope this isn’t the case, long term investors here don’t deserve another, final, kick in the teeth. It’s a possibility though, isn’t it?

PompeyMagnus: if this is true, it must have been someone very close to Mr. Mugabe. You can’t just walk into the Reserve Bank and pinch something from the vault. In any case, the RBZ is probably immune to prosecution in such a case. If they’re not there, it’s hard to see what Vast can do. If they are there, it’s hard to see how Vast can get them out. They’ve got four weeks.

,..and I’m not sure of the relevance of tomorrow’s opening. They’re answering the questions tomorrow and posting them on Monday.

Ocelot: so basically you’re saying that, in common with a late President of the USA, the CEO can’t walk and chew gum at the same time. Or delegate a simple job to an underling.

So the £12mm loan taken in September 2020 that they didn’t need is to be paid down by the £20mm loan that will make them debt-free?

If they’ve got as far as documentation, this implies that terms have been agreed and are now merely being written up. In which case, why not just answer the investor question (there must be one) on progress in the loan negotiations? For anyone who’s got a grip on this business, the answers to investor questions shouldn’t take more than fifteen minutes to dictate. But maybe the use of the term “documenting” is a verbal infelicity. The new CEO hasn’t got a Cambridge MA in English, as his predecessor did.

Asimpleinvestor: doesn’t the Companies Act preclude new issues of shares at a price below the nominal price?