Member Info for onsolidground

WPP's Q3 update out this morning reads ok and with a strong start to Q4 and some decent business wins.

I think we are following that sentiment this a.m.

dyor

Just looking at todays trades on advfn and it looks like somebody was picking up stock today and probably closing their position, but with somebody still manipulating it in the to keep it in the background to keep it in check and reduce for the Uncrossing auction. It's always the last one in that carries the most risk

Seems to be in pretty good shape and probably the best I have known it which makes the Iast few days movements bizarre to say the least and I also have to agree it looks Oversold (Under £250 Market Cap and with £230M cash on the balance sheet) and with so much work ongoing in over 100 negotiations. Always the risk that one or more of those translates into a capacity reservation and in any case there must be an update due in early December if last years Calender is anything to go by.

I'm adding in stages and at strategic points and might look to a few more tomorrow.

Here's that reminder from August at just how busy ITM were with negotiations.

https://youtu.be/qKPPXHR6LqI?t=1191

Must be getting close or Mr Billionaire says thank you very much, here have this offer.

One might be forgiven for thinking DLAR hasn't agreed the sale of one of its divisions.

But it has.

Share price was at this level whilst talks / negotiations were ongoing and without any certainty of a sale.

Incredible really.

Roughly 50p a bar though |Yorek can't be bad and a free click collect over £45 so cheaper than a normal chocolate bar tbf. The way my family consume them they won't see out the month. MP Shaker thrown in for free.

It's only the 2nd positive I've seen come out of the rebrand, other than Nutrition's return to growth in September.

Everybody likes a bargain. Enjoy.

Back into holiday mode.

Excellent Warehouse Clearance deal just been brought to my attention by my good lady.

£5 a Box for 12 bars using a discount code + postage. Can buy Annual postage if intending further purchases. Free MyProtein shaker also to claim if you spend over £20 I see.

https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/crispy-layered-protein-bar-white-chocolate-peanut-chocolate-caramel-12x58g-w-code-free-gift-4435974

Just about to get several boxes myself and adding a bit of revenue to both Reaminco / Newco.

No amount of talking decides what's written in the stars and sometimes it's better just to stick to quieter bulletin boards, keep your own counsel, digest the information in quiet time off bulletin board and go with your gut. One winner for me today. One for Mike Ashley.

Now there was SALT, an innovative low sodium slat producer, right up there with any healthy eating agenda and just about 2 weeks ago the share price had criminally dropped from the 140's and flying high to a low 30p. Some nice multiple contracts then announced just after only identifying it as an absolute bargain, then a load of patent announcements get RNS'd swiftly after and it hardly moved. Then today up she goes - over 50% on the day. Plenty others out there of a similar ilk and a few more pennies tucked into a few of those as well. dyor.

And then there you go N.Brown Group plc, another one which Mike Ashley is partnered with and invested in to the tune of 20.83% - and which has just detailed plans to go private today - and a 43% rise on the day.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/17/fashion-retailer-n-brown-agrees-191m-takeover-founding-alliance-family-member

I am seriously of the opinion that the market is so hell bent on trying to keep THG's price suppressed that it is seriously overlooking some big players and strategic action that is going on at the moment and which might just pop the share price materially upwards over the next few weeks and months.

You're money and it's you that's decides where you plant those acorns.

Couple of weeks holiday for me now and don't intend to comment any further here unless any material announcements are made.

Enjoy.

Glad I spied the well overdone drops in this one.

Brilliant day and hopefully the start of more to come.

Can Matt buy into Selkirk?

Would be down to Kelso / Selkirk Board whom they let in on the Placing. Same as Matt did with the THG placing.

Further comments.

Hasn't MM already enough to stump up keeping Funds available in reserve to be the fallback in scooping up any of the THG Ingenuity shares that people elect not to have.

Even if he could buy in the open market would the time window not be too short to gain sufficient shares to exercise any influence. Personally I suspect he would need to go for the whole company and at a premium.

More importantly though would people not then scream blatant Conflict of Interest if any Selkirk bid was at a better price and or with a lesser or indeed negligible debt aspect and MM was trying to play silly Pacman defence.

Happy to sit back now and ride it out folks.

Yorek, I get your thinking.

Could it be a Kelso bid incoming as it certainly reads that way or has MM conjured up an elaborate plan and is in bed with Kelso with a reverse takeover into Selkirk Group ultimately on the cards when the placing completes?

The two things lingering in my mind with the latter suggestion though are this

1. That the acquisition capital of up to £1 Billion mentioned wouldn't be required for any reverse takeover?

2. Only on the run up to the recent AGM a few months back Kelso were publicly anti THG and stated their intention to vote against the Chairman's re-election. It would mark a dramatic turnaround in short order. "My dogs got more than them!!)

Might this mornings RNS and the way it is written, also not serve to tempt in rival Private Equity bids? That could be another thought.

Happy to let it all play out on THG, Kelso and NCC. Something's coming to the boil imvho.

Good Morning Yorek,

You know my views on Kelso and the timely setting up of Selkirk Group prior to this morning's RNS as its in my posting history and I've also highlighted the Betaville post on Kelso's interest in a sizeable part of NCC. The.Italian seemed to think that Kelso might be bidding for Escode an NCC company.

So this mornings RNS from Kelso what does it add or take away.

It says that Kelso have already got substantial Private Equity backers in place (Belerion) behind Selkirk Group of up to £1 Billion and that they have formulated Selkirk's Board, Even says the sectors that they are targeting and reading between the lines they are not hanging about. Also interestingly it mentions the Enterprise Value of the company that they are looking to invest in. Where have we heard that term recently before?

So my overall gut feel is that there is imminent takeover activity coming off Kelso/ Selkirk Group and todays RNS does nothing to dispel the fact that it could actually end up being a Rival offer for THG Ingenuity. Why?

+ Iain Mac onto the Selkirk Board. Previous Director at THG who stepped aside after a low shareholder vote in the 2023 AGM. Was still retained in a working capacity.

+ Angus Monro Ex- THG Director also onto the Kelso Board.

+ Belerion Capital - previous bidders for THG whole along with King Street.

+ The timing of Kelso setting up the SPAC coinciding with the THG placing.

+ The creation of Selkirk Group and Independent Board could take it outside any Matt Moulding Pacman defensive actions.

So what's it going to be NCC, or THG Ingenuity, or Another?

It's your money, your choice.

Seems a logical question given the below.

From Betaville.

"Friday 27th September.3.57p.m.

Kelso Group Holdings, the activist Investor, is said to have submitted a takeover approach for a sizeable part of the NCC Group, a London-based cyber security group."

https://www.betaville.co.uk/

and then this RNS from Kelso this morning on Selkirk Group, a new SPAC that they have created on the 24th September.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KLSO/update-on-kelso-investments/16718634

Strange also that the reductions coincided with the date the Placing shares were added to successful participant's accounts.

Pleasing to see but something doesn't quite add up for me.

I don't think there were enough shares traded all day yesterday to enable both those positions to reduce on the same day by the amounts stated imo. Not if you factor in normal other business of some buying and some selling on top.

Total volume for yesterday was only 5,908,567

So did they hold back on notifying from earlier in the week or were they actually granted them in the Placing? The 90 day lock-in I'm suspecting would only apply to selling the placing shares - not gaining them via the placing and handing them back. Have some of the placing shares slipped through the net - perhaps amidst the extra £20Mill or so that was oversubscribed? Or has a friendly institution somehow got involved?

It's a weird one.

Any ideas?

Was forecast to fall to 1.9% and it exceeded that.

First time it has fallen below the BofE 2% target since 2021.

Another interest rate cut for definite on the cards, possibly 0.5%, on the 7th November at next MPC meeting.

No brainer for a cut, its just how much they decide.

Interest rates defo heading in the right direction now for 1. Putting more in peoples pockets for disposable income and also 2. if it just so happens you were looking to renegotiate any debt or take on any new debt (Newco and Remainco)

Imvho

Yes 1pencil. Was forecast to fall to 1.9% and it exceeded that.

First time it has fallen below the BofE 2% target since 2021.

Another interest rate cut for definite on the cards, possibly 0.5% on the 7th November.

No reason why not given the pain and suffering Bailey and Co have inflicted on many in recent years.

No brainer for a cut.

Imvho

Par for the course these days seems to be the market dropping company share prices in results days, irrespective of whats written and especially if the share had risen into the results.

Today Bellway went up. The market liked the numbers.

I don't think if a better rival offer came in that the BoD would get away with not putting it to shareholders.

We have an Active Investor on board and other publicly vocal ones (OVMK and Cookson) and several large holders who seemingly haven't participated in the placing and any one of which would be capable of mounting a legal challenge or seeking a judicial review.

Comfort yourself with the fact that the exact same shorters are feeling the need to sell more shares to try and drop it under the placing price, probably trying to target todays new recipients of the placing shares. Sometimes the short and distort create opportunities which otherwise wouldn't exist and it's up to you if you follow your gut on a Sum of Parts valuation higher than this, or not.

Interesting somebody raised this for I have a demerger question on it.

At the time this sponsorship was announced it wasn't just announced for the benefit of THG Nutrition / MyProtein.

It was also from memory expounded as a two-fold business benefit for THG Ingenuity. Firstly THG Ingenuity was picking up and handling the ecommerce business of the William F1 Team. Secondly it was also meant to get them access into the C-Suite of Tier 1 of other F1 clients to network and secure and win further business deals.

My question - and a point I will be looking out for in any circular - is what is the split in Williams sponsorship money that falls to My Protein on demerger and what proportion on demerger will fall to THG Ingenuity.

As THG Beauty (1/3 of the Group) is not involved would it be a straight 50 / 50 split or should it be more weighted to THG Ingenuity or otherwise?

Might save Remainco £5M - £15M, maybe more given how much these sponsorship deals cost in prime positions on the F1 car, drivers racing suit, helmet and all other Race Team livery (mechanics, hospitality suites etc).

https://www.thg.com/news/williams-racing-announces-multi-year-partnership-with-thg

Valid question. What's peoples thoughts?

Todays deal is worth more than 15%.

This is being played. Pure and simple.