I reduced my holding. I think there are better opportunities out there. Still holding 86k shares - average 46p. Invested my money in Novacyt, great company. I wish i could sell TLW and invest every single penny in it.
According to 09 December 2019 RNS, 2020 Group production was forecasted to average between 70,000 and 80,000 bopd. Group production for the following three years was expected to average around 70,000 bopd.
What is the reason behind decrease in the production forecast?
Do you think in the next 6 to 12 months tlw will reach £1? or Do you think that it will take at least 2-3 years to reach that level?
I am not in hurry to sell but just wondering is there any chance to reach £1
Thanks,
Onlyprofit
Average now 33p
Total shares 158k.
"Brent oil at $42+/barrel"
Hoping for a blue day today.
Slift,
Thanks for the dates. Much appreciated. How confident are you that TLW will survive?
Am i right to say RBL re-determination in Jan 2021 is the first hurdle in the short term TLW needs to clear ?
My average 35p. Total shares 140k.
I topped up too early on Friday. Bought more on Friday at 18.37 :-(
Total share 140k - average 35p.
Sell: Tullow Oil (TLW)
Though we expect some clemency from lenders, questions around solvency are unlikely to fade soon, writes Alex Newman.
This year has at times borne witness to some massive examples of equity destruction, though few more spectacular than Tullow Oil. After booking impairments totalling $2bn (£1.55bn) at its full-year results in March, the oil producer was forced to write-off a further $941m from the value of its exploration assets in its interim figures, alongside $418m in property, plant and equipment.
The result is a balance sheet in which liabilities exceed assets by $138m. Scrambling for positives, management reassured investors that good well production from Ghana, unchanged capital expenditure plans and hedges to sell 60 per cent of production for at least $57 per barrel until December would mean breaking even on a free cash flow-basis.
That still requires two caveats: that working capital movements stay favourable and oil prices climb by $15 per barrel over two years. Recent history suggests neither assumption can be guaranteed, particularly with the global supply of liquid fuels once again rising into what looks like a wavering economic recovery.
Compounding the uncertainties is the group’s debt pile. Investor attention is once again drawn to the risks involved in securing amendments or waivers to covenants on the reserves-based lending facility. Failure of upcoming leverage tests in December and June is now expected, even after factoring in the $575m Ugandan asset sale.
Consensus forecasts are for adjusted losses of 4.77 cents per share this year, and 3.76 cents in 2021.
Tullow Oil shambles to a funereal beat these days. High debt and persistent operating losses since 2013 have darkened the mood of long-grieving shareholders. Rahul Dhir, the new chief executive, has a mandate to breathe new life into the Africa-focused oil company. His experience as a deal-doer should help him sell assets while cutting costs, securing Tullow’s survival. But the continuing business may prove to be a zombie: one of a growing legion of corporates stuck in a financial twilight zone following Covid-19. Unable to grow or generate good returns, they will simply tie up capital. Wednesday’s first-half results hinted at the alternative — ignominious collapse. Most of the key data were already announced. What rattled markets, sending shares down 10 per cent, was buried deep in the statement. Here, Tullow flagged issues over future liquidity, a benchmark of creditworthiness for banks that have lent $1.5bn against its oil reserves. There are doubts that next year’s cash flow will meet targets. A glance at the capital structure reveals what Mr Dhir faces. Net debt now exceeds trailing ebitdax (a measure of cash earnings before exploration expenses) by three times. Next year, repayment of a $300m convertible bond falls due. Tullow should be able to cover that with proceeds from the sale of its Uganda oil assets. Senior bonds worth $600m start coming due in 2022. Bondholders understandably fear a default. The price of Tullow’s 2025 senior bond on the day fell more than 5 points to about 52 cents on the dollar. But the bulk of Tullow’s liabilities are loans. Banks are less prone to revolt than bondholders. Defaults and loan write-offs do banker CVs no good. They may be amenable to raising the current debt covenant of 3.5 times net debt to trailing ebitdax to Tullow’s suggested 4.5 times. That would extend Tullow’s life — if you could call it that. The explorer would then zombify, meeting interest payments but not much else. Tullow could remain on the hook to banks for years. Watch out for other businesses set to share this grim fate
I will pay off my mortgage if tullow reaches £1. Come on tullow i want mortgage free life.
Neon: Thank you very much for your comment. Much appreciated.
I have two questions:
1. What are the chances of SP to reach 50p in near future? Or by the end of this year?
2. How long it will take SP to reach £1? One year, two or three?
Please give your opinion.
Thanks
I have invested 50K in TLW. My average is 50p. My last trade was 10K at 37p. I am a bit nervous as SP is not moving and daily SP is going down. Hoping for good update tomorrow. Finger cross !
Market is up, share price down. Any reason? Expert opinion please.
I have invested 50k in TLW. I bought in trenches and my average is 46p. It seems like TLW is not going anywhere. Everyday it is down and not moving at all.