Member Info for OliG

14cr, I was acutely aware of points 1 and 2, which were the reasons I invested here in March. But, I really hadn't appreciated your point 3 and must admit I didn't understand why Customer Trading Performance was so high ($82m) in Q1, so many thanks for the explanation. Your explanation makes perfect sense.
I must admit the more I learn about this company the more I like it. It's a very comforting holding in these turbulent times. It appears the volatility in Bitcoin has returned to add to the volatility in oil, equities and currency. Q2 is shaping up nicely.

Thanks for the analysis. It will be very interesting to see how Q2 turns out. There are so many variables I gave up trying to do a forecast. Probably even more interesting than Q2 will be Q4, assuming that represents a more sustainable level. I wonder whether Plus are considering an acquisition that will provide more stable earnings.

14cr how have you arrived at revenue of $1.3b for 2020?

Don't get too excited this is just old news (last Accounts) and doesn't refer to the current tests. But it is worth remembering why, imho, the current trial is likely to be a success. i.e. sng001 has already been shown to increase antiviral activity and is safe.

Part 1 of SG015 clinical trial completed, showing that SNG001 was well tolerated and that antiviral biomarker analysis showed COPD patients (without viral infection) inhaling SNG001 had significantly increased antiviral activity in the lungs.

At the start of the year the company had circa $300m of cash, with a dividend declared of $30mil and share buy back of $50m. So at this point if I haven't missed anything the company had non committed cash of $220m. If this year they are going to have $780m of net income and only distribute 60% i.e. $468m, this will leave a balance of $532m. This ignores the lag between earning and distribution. What is the huge excess required for?

Yeah looks very similar to Polar. 5 year return is basically the same at 24%. Let's hope Smithson gets close to that.

April's update is out today. They have a new addition to the portfolio, Qualys, which I think looks really good.

nen, given we are both in Fundsmith and Smithson you might like Alliance Technology Trust which is another of my core holdings. Its a bit more volatile but it's long term performance is actually better than Fundsmith. I think a lot of people miss it because its an investment trust.

I suspect a high level of volatility is going to carry on for at least the whole of 2020 aided by the US election in November. All of this time Plus will be recruiting new customers which will help future trading. The high cash balance at the start of the year probably means that 100% of cash will be distributed by share buy backs and dividends. I bought more of these today because whatever way you look at this its incredible value.

Yep it's now the 4th most read article on the BBC today.

Bloomberg have now amended their estimated PE for Plus500 based on 2020 forecasts to 4.06. Presumably this is as a result of revised forecasts that must show an increase in earning on 2019 of 176%. This PE takes no account of the $515mil cash balance which is probably growing at $100m a month. At some point this share price is going to take off.

Don't trade it. Just be a patient investor. When Q2 results are announced along with massive dividend and share buy back this will go up massively if it hasn't already done so by then.

Actually, unless you are in a hurry to sell, which I am most definitely not, the longer the share price remains at this very cheap level the better. This allows the company to buy back even more shares than it could if the price were higher and our % holding therefore increases even faster.

Another blue day coming.

Its not Neumifil. The drug talked about is an existing drug. Neumifil is not. It has only been involved in lab tests. Not even tested on animals yet.

The phrase I find interesting in todays trading update is "revenue and profitability for the full year is expected to be substantially ahead of current consensus expectations, as revised following the Q1 trading update on 7 April" The current consensus expectations were for a 90% increase on 2019, according to Bloomberg, so were are now talking substantially ahead of that.

Nope.

Last chance to jump aboard ahha. Small retrace today, onward and upwards tomorrow.

Actually its 2019 that is unlikely to be repeated as volatility in that year was at record lows and the company had to deal with the changes in regulation that hit revenues significantly.