Member Info for Oldnewboy

S1 re LTI

He writes as though he might have been a bank manager , which explains his aversion to any kind of speculation or risk.

I am afraid I am giving up responding, charitably assuming he may mean well, and will try to follow concentrating on the company and its share price rather than other people's distractions.

Problem is in valuing the company we have nothing revenue producing to go on so it's a pure gamble at these or any other levels. That's why I'm only a tiny gambler with money I can afford to lose

LTI

Neither Sky nor British Satellite Broadcasting had any revenues at the beginning, just capitalised development expenditure on dishes etc, analogous to MET1’s intangibles. True Ocado has revenues, so will you be happy and leave us idiots in peace to pay over NAV once MET1 develops some revenues?

LTI

I assume you keep posting this fact for the benefit of newcomers. Next time why not put this fact in the context that many proper companies with institutional investors but either no revenues (BSkyB) or losses (Ocado) traded for years at premiums to their NAVs— Ocado’s is around 62p against the 360p share price .

More context needed please!

I think this is why JS does matter. Whether real or a fantasist the scale of his alleged investment is clearly designed to try and influence the market and if true if he had any decency he would reveal his average purchase price as that’s likely to prove a major upwards resistance point.

Bowlers

LTI spouts facts about net asset value. The fact those of us who have bought at more than 2p do not think that is the sole basis for what this share might be worth does not render his facts rubbish.

But what is the factual basis for you “thinking” the shares might reach 12p or more? Or is it just in your waters?

Dusty we are in agreement.

These trails can get confusing, whatever our age!

No help from Dusty

Where's the confusion? Yes if the price doubles a lot of people will take profits -- I will sell half my 5p holding and stay in the game for free. That's what we SPECULATORS are doing -- providing the LIQUIDITY needed for people to take risks and trade.

LTI and warrants

I am not trying to be clever, but as your mission had been to alert people to fundamentals, I think you are in danger of misleading people when you raise a question of how high the share price will go "before the warrants start to be exercised".

I accept this may be a typo and I am probably teaching you to suck eggs, but a lot of people here are likely to be confused.

When a warrant is EXERCISED it means the warrant hold pays money to the company. This is matched by the issue of new shares to the warrant holder, and results in a dilution of everyone else's percentage holding in the company,.

The share prices is only affected when those ex-warrant holders decide to sell their shares. If I had just paid 2p a share I could sell for 5p I would naturally sell two fifths of my holding, leaving me with skin in the game at no cost, and let the rest ride. What I would however like to know is if JS really owns any shares what his average cost is. For anyone to have more than 5% of their wealth in a share like this is frankly bonkers, so he too will presumably at least be trimming his holding once he can do so at some sort of profit.

But as there is no evidence of his holdings, or his possibly illegal "concert party", we may not have to bother about him, but there are certainly plenty of others with substantial book losses who may throw in the towel at the first opportunity to minimise their losses or even scalp a profit. More bumpy rides ahead for some time I fear.

Let's hope so, though I jumped the gun and dipped toe in yesterday at 5p, now wish I'd punted my usual massive £5k instead of half of it. Seems to be forming a base around 5p, so maybe the "oversold" measure was right?

Enough of the sparring. Someone posted earlier Thursday wd be interesting “to see who’s proved right”.

I’ve been (mostly) buying and sometimes selling shares since 1967 and know I’m not psychic enough to predict how the market or any share will move.

So who will predict whether my 5p purchase is near enough the bottom; or am I the patsy for the last of the warrant share sellers?

Dusty: manners

He was rude once early on, and I asked him why, and he hasn’t been since, though we still seem miles apart philosophically. But that’s what intelligent debate is about.

I think it wd be more productive if you and I could meet or talk one day. You will note I have previously defended your warnings against some of your more illiterate combatants who would like to “take you outside” and prove their virility with fisticuffs rather than reasoned discussion.

But can you not understand that for unicorn chasers whether we are paying 66% or 250% over net breakup value just DOESNT MATTER.

I thank you for your earlier alerts about the wicked paid ads which enabled me to get out at no loss having been sucked in at the low 20s. But with the risk of loss now much lower, why not leave us to our fun?

LTI: warrant maths

Looks like I am about to learn something as I approach my 10th decade, something I regard as a rare bonus.

You ask me if I know why exercising 750m warrants at 2p does not equal 750m x 2 /100 = £15m.

Unless we are talking about the pre-paid warrants, which I don't think these were, I do know that there were deal costs etc involved, and someone earlier posted a figure of [from memory]1.7p net.

So yes, but what is the point you are trying to make? Please show me your maths on this, never too old to learn.

I have been very clear in this transaction I may be the last patsy to be holding the baby with a tuppeny'happeny investment at 5p, and I feel very sorry for JS with his [alleged] averaging down purchases which may go down even further, or may stablise around 5p or even start recovering to whatever his average entry price is, which we would all be intereted to know, and in my case benefit from, if it's not intruding on private grief.

But at the very least we may not lose everything, unlike on the horses someone recommended me to try. There's always that

What is the basis for valuing the investment in Narvik? And while you are obsessed with break up value, we wide-eyed naive unicorn chasers should get some comfort from these notional or goodwill valuations (with all the caveats of my previous posts). However with 840m shares in issue, Narvik plus exploration valuations only total 1p per share, so at best I’ve paid 66% “too much” today. We’ll see.

LTI

More fool them but it means Narvick is still a balance sheet asset.

How does that affect the 2p calculation?

In the dark

Knowing the risks AND knowing how to read a balance sheet and how dodgy intangible asset valuations are and disgusted by alleged Cayman island financed paid commercials. How naive am I?

How many of you have ever looked at their accounts? For those who think the share price needs support from a theoretical break up value, why to you ignore their inclusion of £2.9 investment in Narvik and a heady £5.9m “exploration and evaluation “ asset valuation.

How does their inclusion raise the 2p calculation?

You surely wouldn’t expect it to collapse to that level instantly? It would be a slow and agonisingly tempting decline, first testing the previous 4p support level, at which point I might punt another 50000. Of course if it ever DID touch 2p again, that’s the point we should all delight in joining the original warrant holders, presumably long since exited. And some of you would owe a grovelling apology to LTI!

Whether gambling at that price wd be throwing even more good money after bad, only time would tell.

Too difficult: chickened out. Punted 50000 @ 5p. Hope the warrant share seller who’ll regret it, but realise it might be me and all the other unicorn chasers!

Thanks, am getting tempted but will pursue Bob Beckman’s “masterful inactivity” till we see nearer 4p again.