Member Info for Oldgimmer

GSM advised all were busy at the moment. Yes with EMA moving to Amsterdam I would imagine the directors are very busy looking for new office space and homes within the post-Brexit EU. I wonder how generous VAL’s company re-location package is? Time for another placing certainly for “working capital purposes”.

Before I am being accused of being a de-ramper I have been invested here since January 2012. I also have a smaller interest in Harvest Minerals in Brazil. I was attracted to to its low cost profile but also to the fact the Brazilian Government have made fertilizer self sufficiency by 2020 a target. HMIs product is more a re-mineraliser but I do wonder if Sirius will be able to secure sales given this objective. Obviously if the authorities can satisfy their domestic market from internal resources this would be their preference.

Sorry for articele... spelling

Apologies if this has already been discussed. I have been out of it for awhile. Read this yesterday. I must admit I find it somewhat unbalanced which seems to be the consensus of those commenting on it. I am surprised the FT published it and not what I would have expected from such a respected broadsheet. Any comments or should I look back circa 7th?

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/08/07/1533614400000/Sirius-Minerals--money-for-a-hole-in-the-ground/

Well Jonbhoy the problem is the board would argue that the right conditions or investor has not surfaced yet but then again that would depend on the critera they have set to any potential investor. You set the conditions so high you can dismiss everything cant you? Not knowing what has occurred and the funding choices available making proving anything impossible. The company although a plc is run by a small team who have stuck together through thick and thin. They all have presided over a cataclysmic fall in the share price which would not have been tolerated had there been some real pressure for change which would have been applied by an institution investing its backers money.

The BOD do not want to lose control which they feel would happen if they engaged with an institution who would take a major equity stake. They would rather do placing after placing at big market discounts aimed at speculators after a quick buck. Long term shareholders take the hit and hold in the hope that something, finally, is agreed and a product is considered commercially viable. Are they onto something? Who knows.

Just thinking really how the Board have resisted enriching themselves over the years by not buying shares. Instead they have allowed their ideas and intellect to be shared amongst us all by offering us shares so that we can all benefit, indeed all mankind. I wonder when they will offer us another chance to participate in the glorious journey?

5 years ago a Brazil Real was worth 28p. Its now worth 21p so a 25% fall in 5 years. In August 2015 it went down to 18p and then a bit lower before rising to 26p in March 2017 and has been in steady decline since. A bit of a rollercoaster ride. Any fall means less £££ available for dividends but the product is a low cost operation and should continue to be viable and generate profits. An interesting point bopd mentions that bartering is a common business practise which may make the tie up to Geo Bio make more sense as they already have experience of this and presumably operate within this climate.

Hi bopd, thanks for your comments. Maybe they have been a bit premature and perhaps GB’s website has not been updated yet. They are under some pressure to announce more product sales. Can you give some indication of the more competitive prices you were given for a re-mineraliser? And is this an imported product? What were you quoted for kpfertil? Also I did write to Harvest trying to ascertain some idea of the crop cycle timings there in Brazil. When do you order and spread?

Rumour is that the new head of the FBI is a senior ex GRU employee recommended by Putin.

I wish when you post it doesn�t sound like a bollicking Bulent. I�ve been invested here since 2012 and invested for two reasons: A UK mining operation and as a source of income. Not the best investment as it turns out and for me and there is still along way to go. Despite being a qualified accountant I cannot be bothered to calculate the current interest charge which will be a charge in the P&L accounts. Or the cash flow implications or the eventual loan repayments before any dividend could be payable to the1bn plus shares currently issued. I understand the shortfall in extraction rates and hope the APT price continues to hold up[. So please dont post as though I�m a f****g idiot and know nothing OK?

But we still have a long way to go. Note that whilst the 15% interest charge on the loans doesn�t appear on the cash flow statements as its capitalised but they could have shown it as paid then received as an increase i loan. So P & L will look dire and we are looking at a massive equity dilution at some point unless profitability increases exponentially

I�m a fool, obviously as invested in both. HMI offers a return in a much shorter timescale than Sirius. After all all they have to do is scrape off the topsoil and off you go. I see HMI as a great earner feeding the Brazilian market. With MAPA certification and the Brazilian government aim not to import crop fertilizer HMI will generate revenues this year. As I have posted before this share should be around 40p or so now. The potash mine in Yorkshire is not behind schedule other than a couple of months as they fell behind on D ring placement on shaft sinking. Sirius is headed by people who have a great track record and funding for the rest of the scheme will be found this year, hopefully all debt. I think it was $1.2bn they need. When in production it will be low cost. I think the seams are 8.5 metres deep in places. The product has been proved in trial in many countries and orders have been received for millions of tons pa. If there was no confidence in this happening it would not be valued at �1bn with many institutions buying in despite another what 3 years to go?

Its not looking too good really. We are in a better and improved position with the very welcome rise in APT and buoyant tin price but unless I have miscalculated selling 50K of apt in this next quarter at $300 wont cover production costs? Plus I see that the $55m sub loan looks like will be convertable to keep them the lender on board. Another 1.4b shares at 4p potentially. Over 50% dilution. My investment here does not look to have been the best I have made :-(.

I think I can explain: Say they win a �3m total contract covering 3 accounting years on day 1 of a financial year. They credit in the balance sheet deferred income for �3m and the same amount in receivables as an asset on the balance sheet. When the cash is received for the first year they increase cash on balance sheet and reduce the balance sheet receivables amount by �1m and show in p&L �1m in sales and reduce the deferred income in the balance sheet by the same amount.

I�m newly invested here. Not sure whether the rumour of possible Chinese influence is a positive one. They effectively control rare earth global pricing so their influence could be seen as potentially negative if they want to maintain control ie by mothballing this development or not supporting it. Or it could be a positive as an investment to preserve their own finite reserves and develop MKA. I got badly burnt on another company awhile back where all development costs were to be met by the Chinese. I bought in thinking it was a sure thing...but it never happened. I appreciate that Noble have many other interests and that this is only just one of them.

At the risk of being shot down...in broad terms and an SP of 13.6p we were indicating an EPS of about 4.5p (assuming 100k production pa and $60 sale price) this is after adding the saving in the royalty charge recently announced. With the latest RNS and assuming 320K production a $55 sale price and same EPS the share price should be around 40p. I know it wont happen till later in 2018 but that is one hell of an upside potential.

Supposed to be due tomorrow according to TheTimes

I appreciate that. I�m not expecting a dividend anytime soon. The SP value is derived from ones expectation of the future and the risk profile of each investor is different, Thats why we dont all behave the same thank-goodness. The outlook for this share is good, there being more upside than downside. I�m also into SXX which is a longer timeframe and again probably my kids will benefit from that more than me! This investment fitted in pretty well for me. We have a growing world population and we all need to eat.

Really optimistic this share will do well this year. A low cost producer, a huge potash mine, a government policy to be self sufficient in Fertilizer production by 2020 and a large chunk of shares owned by a family. A good time to get in either for a share to grow in value or its dividend stream. DYOR there are many on these boards that have ulterier motives.