I suggest everyone gives a wide berth to this thing between Oilman Jim and Tony Nortstrom. They still have a well known spat over a company named i3e, and unfortunately for the LTHs like Tony and myself, Oilman Jim alias Louis10, has been quite correct in his bearishness this time. Just saying, as it has no bearing on the Predator case.
Sorry. I'll try again
I'm curious about this Nu-Tech outfit and technology.
It definitely seems superior to conventional log analysis, identifying more detail in more difficult down hole situations. Makes you wonder why the whole world of conventional drilling doesn't use it, or them, cost aside.
I am reading this comment by PG that if it wasn't for Nu-Tech, they might not have found much gas intervals on this MOU-4 drill. Certainly not enough to whet the market's appetite.
So another masterstroke by PG, and a giant sigh of relief by all.
Post by Divmad on the other BB:
"https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=46078886&from=4396#firstpost"
Will a Baker Hughes team perform the flow testing? Has this been budgeted for?
Like you imply, He1 has still to make a commercial helium discovery but with their fully owned rig about to turn, we'll find out soon enough if the current MC is justified. Meanwhile, with news flow assured, this is the only helium game in town with any momentum. High risk but high reward.
Good evening @Keith.
I have been pondering on your excellent posts last Monday morning, UK time, again.
The numbers speak for themselves in terms of upside potential for shareholders. What I'm wodering, though, is how much of this upside, beyond a straightforward, readily financeable 10-50mmcfgd CNG operation, would accrue to PRD shareholders.
In the G2P and G2EU cases, you posit a capex of $100mn to deliver 250mmcfgd. By the way, is that all it would require? Anyway, a big spending large O&G outfit making a deep commitment to Morocco and this new gas province will need a tasty ROI to justify the expense, including the buyout price to PRD. How much of a discount to your £2.5bn NPV12 figure would you reasonably expect to agree terms, if we get that far?
And how do your numbers square with PG's Sunday Roast suggestion of what he is looking for in a trade sale?
Thank you for all your input here, Keith. Much appreciated. We non-industry shareholders are being educated in real-time by your efforts, and a few others. As they say, it's never too late to learn something new. ATB.
"O&W, I was thinking about that, but I think T&T gets sold next year after the snowcap drill/appraisal in Q1 and a bit of CO2 with Heritage."
Hmmm. So many moving parts to this wonderful story. I hadn't thought of that possible scenario, but if it happens like that, then there's another good piece of monetisation to be added to the main event.
Anyone else think that Trinidad will be an opportunistic "trade"?
An interesting thought, but wouldn't Trinidad alone keep PG fully occupied once up and running?
Good points.
PRD are in the same boat with their gas resource in Morocco. It's quite likely that they will prove up more than enough gas that they can reasonably handle themselves as a small-time operator (CNG plant), with the capex ramping up markedly as you go into a gas-to-power business. PRD has openly mentioned a sale of its Guercif licences, once the next CPR and prospectus is made public, after the imminent flow testing.
I see very much the same situation here for HE1. Firm up a huge resource, flow test, CPR (revised), then the resource becomes too big to handle, alone. Does HE1 JV it, or sell it, lock stock and barrel to a well-financed larger group for a huge return on shareholders' investment at these levels?
But have to firm up the Helium resource first.
Much appreciated, Jimmy.
Jimmy,
In light of recent news releases from Prd, what is your current thinking about the compartmentalisation risk at Guercif?
ATB.
My takeaway from the Fox Pitt note today is:
1. Even at 20m net sand thickness, the Jurassic potential DOUBLES the unrisked NAV from $600mn to $1200mn. Until now, all upside valuation estimates have been based solely on Moulaya Middle Sands, and they are already big numbers!
2. As per @KeithOz and Dicko80, these Jurassic numbers (and Moulaya Fan ones too) are "likely" biassed downwards for key parameters such as porosity, gas expansion factor, net sand thickness.
3. In getting to their risked NAV estimate of 35p, FP have double discounted the Moulaya DISCOVERED sands by a combined 75%, and the Jurassic potential by a combined commercial and geologic risk of failure of 94%. Yes, 94%.
Unrisked NAV/share = $4.30, or £3 as things stand today.
4. As a non-geologist, I am blown away by the ability of the drillers and log nalysis to identify a seam of gas sands 2m thick, 1200m vertically downhole. Respect to the entire Predator + contractor team.
Strong hold for that corporate event.
Hope you got back in yesterday.
I just go back to @KeithOz's post on Mondat morning that, if Prd can justify at least a 10mmcfpd CNG operation, that would support a current sp of some 23p.
That's a base case, with warts and all.
Not a bad uplift from 10p for starters, which you, Jimmy, assume is eminently doable.
I don't understand He1. A poster on the other BB states that He1 has "confirmed flows verified and validated", which clearly suggests a discovery already, whilst others like you, Cybertron, are not that confident a discovery is already in place and needs this drill to confirm.
Edark, you come across as a very arrogant s.o.b. Not the sort of fella I'd like to go and have a pint with down my local.
Filtered.
The Chinese aren't stupid. They currently control all graphite processing to battery grade, worldwide. They have been asked to give their leading graphite testing lab a quality assurance about Bres's bulk sample graphite. They will expect to have access to some, or most, or all the future output of graphite from Orom Cross if the quality is assured.
Why would they continue to work methodically and scientifically, knowing that it's quite likely that Bres will be assisted financially by a US government agency who has stated publicly that they want the US to own SPG processing of graphite for EV batteries in direct competition with China?
In short, I don't see room for both camps to stake a claim on OC. Will be very interesting to watch how this story develops (as a decent sized shareholder).
Looks like Johnny12 has done a runner.
Yes, indeed, GRH.
No-one had mentioned the speed with which this drill reached its TD target, until you did just now. It needed commenting on.
O&W.
JV partnering with CHAR, most definitely not.
My thinking is that PG got a whiff of this back when Char announced its tie up with Vivo Energy, for a mid-sized domestic industrial gas distribution business, operating out of the Rharb basin. I am led wondering if this industrial market has enough demand to absorb both the potential new supply from Char after its accelerated drilling program, and Predator over in the Guercif basin. It would explain the added sense of urgency to get MOU-4 drilled and a CNG operation funded and in place for early production and cash flows.