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Lochnez, it hadn't escaped my attention, either.
I tell you what, James. I'd take the hands on, severe cost consciousness and direct share ownership of Paul/Lonny over Gil Holzman and his crew at Eco any day of the week.
Now there's a chap and a story that you nailed yourself to and got legged over in no uncertain manner, eh, James.
I'd keep schtum if I were you.
How did Cove shareholders fare, from the low to takeout price, out of interest? Was it a ten bagger or more?
Moyra. Apologies.
With increasing talk of a corporate transaction, maybe as soon as by the end of this Summer, we should consider the key individuals who will be making the strategic decisions for us shareholders.
PG is about 69 years old, and I guess Lonny isn't a spring chicken any more.
Will PG after talking things over with Lonny decide to call it a day in Morocco or be retained as a hands on consultant, with Lonny and Lorna similarly, or will he relocate to Trinidad and oversee the next phase of Prd's explosive growth in 2024, or will he just cash his chips in totally? Or will the team stick around and try to develop the CNG operation all by themselves, delaying a corporate exit in Morocco?
Of these scenarios, the last one I see as the least likely. The team are explorers, not developers, in the main. And age surely comes into it very much.
Having a comfortable cash component in Prd after the sale of the Moroccan sub should spur PG on to create "Son of Guercif" with CM, if he considers that prospect to be as huge as he has stated in various interviews this year.
A fascinating and life changing set of decisions coming up for the team collectively, if the volume numbers are validated shortly by an independent assessment, and industry interest becomes overwhelming.
Or am I simply jumping the gun?
The weak link in your positive stance is the assumption that cash receipts will start ramping up in Q3 onwards.
This was also the widely held positive view here a year ago. Didn't materialise.
Still no empirical validity to that assertion.
This must be one of the quietest boards on the LSE website.
Either the story isn't getting out there, or it's not sexy enough, or there are too many doubters. Which is it?
I'm a 0.6% holder. I'm fortunate enough to be able to be a long term buy-and-hold investor, but, boy, I would like to see some market confirmation that the story is getting out there and moving ahead.
Moan over. I blame the weather.
@KeithOz, what's also interesting is to compare the FD numbers for a CNG full operation with your calculations as per your Michael Caine revisited post, July 10th.
On a Npv12 basis, and a net 75% interest to Prd, with 450mn shares, you calculate a value of £1.03 per share for a 50mmcfgd operation, versus 57.8p with FD's NAV estimates.
Just focusing on this aspect of the Guercif license, that's quite a difference in value right there.
It does suggest that the operator of the CNG business, alone, can generate very attractive net cash returns, after your upwardly revised capex, versus what a conventional methodology applying a heavily discounted gas price assumption would generate.
These are the sort of numbers that will attract a number of larger players in the region, and possibly a bidding war just on this business alone.
I must say that, given the industry background conditions in Morocco for natural gas looking ahead, a 50% risk of commercial failure for a 50mmcfgd does seem unduly conservative.
And we'll soon find out whether or not FD's 75% risk of geological failure for the Jurassic carbonate play is unduly conservative, too.
Recent events suggest i3e doesn't understand full cycle commodity prices.
And UK too.
You're joking, of course.
Seems like even Cameroon, once thought to be a staunch ally of SAVE in this spat, is joining forces with the enemy.
SAVE will be the loser, whatever happens.
Nice one, AK.
Sirmark, i think you'll find that there are a number of well informed O&G specialists, both from within the industry with years of relevant experience as well as historical success with similar explorers turning to development. Most are on this BB, so there is no fear of Prd being orchestrated by one individual.
Relevant information is being shared freely, unlike your style, which is simply to spread technical FUD so you can get a long position below 12p. Couldn't be more transparent if you tried.
Interesting that in that interview, PG downplays the importance of flow testing, being more for retail investor interest, and emphasises getting proven volumes which is what any trade buyer will be looking for.
This was said before MOU-3 was drilled so I wonder if prd now has that volume estimate to incorporate into a prospectus, regardless of the flow testing.
IJWT, I recommend that you go back and dig out KeithOz's post of Monday am last week on this subject, "Michael Caine revisited - Calculations".
Using a 12% discount rate, for a reasonably modest 50mmcfgd CNG operation, PRD uses just 171bcf over 10 years, and with PRD's own cost (increased by 50%) and sales price assumptions, the NPV12 is $795mn, or £1 a share. Not even starting to consider any G2P or G2EU possibilities.
As PG said, "what the hell do we do with all the gas?"
Just checking back through the last set of accounts and subsequent placings,
BRES has 38mn warrants outstanding, all exercisable at 8p.
20mn of those were issued back in November 2021 with a 3-year term to expiry, so they are on a short fuse now. Will they be exercised when the sp is comfortably above 8p, or rolled forward for another future expiry period, or be allowed to lapse with nil value (under 8p sp)? £1.6mn gross proceeds from that issue at stake.
Then there are another 18mn warrants that were issued in the last 2 placings, both for another 3-year expiry period. £1.4mn at stake in total there.
"In the meantime, if anyone knows where I can buy McVities Rich Tea biscuits in Bangkok, please let me know."
Stupid poser.
If you're that desperate for them, why didn't you take a packet with you?
Hello Jimmy,
I'm not sure what you mean by staying that the 1000ft gas column was a safety case scenario.
O&W
Apologies, I meant Cocobeans.
Cybertron, no the risk here hasn't been eliminated.
This first drill is, as the Daily Mail describes it well, a proof of concept drill. Nothing should be taken for granted yet. And if the first drill doesn't find the sweet spot, imagine the rush for the exit by short term traders.
So it's very much a case of higher risk for greater reward.