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hi joe, there just isn't any positive news at the moment. even small sells will move the sp lower. it's v frustrating. the recent large sell off sell off is an over reaction to the tonka news imo...and then more recently dribbling down as small sellers sell.. i don't think any such bill will ever be passed, and even if some moderating to gambling advertising is done it in my view will just mean more regulatory control and protecting minors etc and language used in advertising- which i think a good thing. i honestly don't believe xlm will be affected longer term so have decided just to hold and check out for a while and not overly worry about it. 2023 may also be a challenging year in terms of growth with only two states opening and having to replicate the big spikes seen last year with big states opening last year. this one is a longer term play with alot patience needed. i do think it will come very good as do believe this is way oversold on fear and i think people getting in now will be rewarded in the future, we need some good news to restore confidence.. i'm in quite heavy on this with nearly 300 thousand shares. this is only my view of course, although a couple of other i trust share the view , and one is holding way more than me. there are couple others that have more negative views, especially on advfn where i used to spend an inordinate amount of time responding to v toxic posts - mostly 1 individual, but i don't pay attention to that anymore as the site has ended up like stocktwits in the us with all sorts of bad behaviour going on and posters wanting kill each other rather than offer support etc... ultimately this is a speculative play. i'm a speculative investor (well for a certain amount of my pf) so can take the hit if this thing goes bust, although would of course be ****ed off- i subscribe to scsw and hold about a dozen of their recomendations. this and reach (which i also think will come back) have been my biggest disapointment with everything else doing well. but in my view highly unlikely this will go bust, could get bought out and we get a cash settlement. i'm expecting however to look at this is a few years and make a decent profit - but then again may not ...as said speculative, anyone not with a speculative risk tolerance should not be in the stock. how heavy are you in on this?
Joe this is not short sellers as the trades way too small and no one in their right mind would short at these prices and with this PE...it's just last of the nervous small retail investors selling out - who need money.
yes definitely agree, remember though any move to revenue share will show possible initial dip (as you won't get the spikes from CPA) but ultimately it will be better, smoother and more predictable longer term. This has a very low PE, is way undervalued, but still expect this year to be a challenging year as they refine their revenue model and wait for more states open. Looking forward sale of PF, which hopefully will go through shortly. Then they should get motoring.
cheers and agree Peaky. This one has been hurt badly as it's AIM and a lot of unnecessary fear re US regulations. The reality is it's way oversold and the PE on this is now under 5 I understand, the growth in this sector will be huge in the US, but will be a slow burn especially this year with only 2 states opening and whilst the blend of revenue share/CPA gets settled - confidence needs to be restored on a lot AIM/growth stocks. Once the PF sale goes through and the US momentum really kicks in this will no doubt recover. It's a long term hold this one :)
Tommy you are right this is significant. That said the company will I think develop a hybrid model where both CPA and revenue share will be considered, the latter wherever possible. My experience (albeit not in this sector) is that where a revenue share is not possible (at the moment 2 states) upfront fees are negotiated at elevated to offset the lack of revenue share. I always preferred revenue share deals where possible, not necessarily to get revenue in the door but for more predictable and smoother revenue streams YOY versus spikey/lumpy payments...so easier forecasting growth, P&L, just easier way run a business etc.. . It's a challenge but not a show stopper in my view.
Hi new to this thread come over from ADVFN. Holding this for a while. Naturally disappointed in the share price with my average being 48. Thought the results were very strong in NA, but the lack of new states opening this year could be a challenge for this year's growth as we won't get many new spikes this year. Very much also need the sale of PF communicated soon - hoping that will happen next few weeks. Thoughts from other posters welcome, there seemed to be many very confident buys around the results, share price still suffering however. Probably slow burn this one. Thoughts welcome