Member Info for Oktane

Yanis is documented to have lost about £3,000 per recommends in trying to stay invested here.

There is a lot of empathy for him on here from decent people. He never ever hurtled abuse at anyone and has multiple brain cells able to form a logical argument.

Amidst a sea of "RNS tomorrow Boom" quotes, Head in Sand posts a rare well though out range of outcomes with analysis far beyond many on here,
and we get just one reply showing fixed hedge income below loan repayments, operating and admin costs and a GL 'prediction' of condesate income levels, everything else in reply will either be abuse or 'but Gas Boom!'

Anyone looking in with funds on the sidelines is going to draw the obvious conclusion; whole lotta punters going to bail on the first price increase asap. And new investors are the only thing going to lift the tide on 2.5 Billion outstanding shares.

Good luck any long term investors, this could still win huge, but it is now a difficult two bumper shot to make it happen, and we have an all-star management team running everything at ANGS...

With ANGS running the sidetrack, what could possible go wrong?

Alternative reality based explanation SFlyer for lower price:

More sellers than buyers

Price here holding up remarkably well given we are into second half of August with zero production.

Being saved by most everyone on holiday and zero volume. Good news needed here soon to hold these levels.

Huge difference in holding back production on purpose:

1) ANGS has zero income
2) Operational and Admin cost ongoing daily
3) Debt repayment on loan dates approaching
4) Hedge payments due for every day not producing, even if some deferred to 2023
5) CLN debt repayment

In a word, without cash flow it get bad here soon, not a stoke of management genius, just the usual failure to deliver, on time, within budget. Add in significant possiblity of Ukraine/Russia cease fire and poof goes any profits here, as Sageman wisely pointed out yesterday. Highly geared very risky play on this crews ability to do a timely, prolific sidetrack. Red21!

"that GL is deliberately holding back production because gas prices are rising ....... perhaps?"
LOL, and some here would view that as positive!!

£13k traded in first 48 minutes, zero outside interest today, all considered price is holding up very well.

Market Makers off to breakfast, then direcly to lunch -pub at this rate.

Someone from the 5p on first gas group would do the cause a huge amount of good by:

Listing exactly how much revenue is expected over next four quarters with and without a side track doubling production

Over same period list all known costs, debt repayments, hedge volumes, and a estimate of Admin costs

Showing possible profits, then over 2.5B shares.

Attacking anyone less than 100% bullish, if that is all that can be offerred, will turn away pretty much all new investors, which is the only thing that will raise the share price here.

I would_______I wouldn't want to be out of these golden tickets over the weekend!

Closing price will be the judge of if today's putting hedge payments back to Q1 next year was good or bad.

At the moment down 4% says not over impressed with further delays, and not known completion date.

Certainly takes some short term pressure off and gives GL some wiggle room, likely though at +12% cost.

"no upfront cost" is the key phrase, sort of like 'Zero Hedge', you have paid, it just has been pushed back, and at what cost?

Good though we aren't circling the drain!

Buy signal soon if we get told the two wells are producing SUSTAINED gas flows in excess of the present hedged amounts, restricted by the almost certain requirement for a successful sidetract this fall and the potential risk ANGS project management entails. Expect a large amount of profit taking at and above 1.55.

Sell signal on no news today, a lot of "do want to be out over the weekend" might visit 1.15 levels, whole bunch of new longs should be risk managing if we get through that level.

5) current £33m market cap already prices in the success of number 1 happening and some of the success of number 2 happening, sidetrack flows commercial gas

1) Production from existing two wells doesn't significantly exceed hedge volumes leading to cash flow shortages despite production
2) Sidetrack delayed or not successful
3) GL issues more shares to cover either of both 1&2
4) GL invests revenues in Cornish geothermalprojects or Lindsy oil well development
5) current £33m market cap already prices in number 1 above and some of number 2

Can any of our deeply researched investors confirm:

Takeoff agreement with Shell means we invoice them monthly, normal terms are 30 day, so sales on 1-31 August are invoiced 31 August, due in 30 days, so payment received 30 September plus maybe a day or three.

Hedge uses hedge price of 43p against average spot price over the month of say August, payment is due on the difference times the variable amounts of gas hedged over the three years, this goes up in October. Does anyone know when this payment is due, has ANGS every provided precise details of this level of the hedge?

Both of the above become increasingly important as we reach the end of July. We need gas sales asap.

"Time to buy!"
1) Saltfleet on schedule for commercial sales
2) Saltfleet project coming in under budget
3) ANGS debt load light
4) Current cash position +£6m
5) Saltfleet partner selling us their half interest is value accruing
6) Doubling of shares in issue in last 12 months is positive
7) Few of the 2,598,773,740 outstanding share will be sold at 1.60

This may not be the case with Tygra, and is not for myself, but a quick look at the price performance of ANGS over the last four years means almost every long-term holder is carrying a loss. Expressing less than glowing optimism when this project is two years late, 20x over budget, and now circling the drain until revenues begin, you might just understand that some of the 2,590,000,000 are hopeful but a bit annoyed.

So no facts to make an argument, rmust esort to attacking the messenger.

I can't think of a better way to put off potential new buyers, the only thing that will make a share price increase.

By your logic that makes you a big deramper, possible greenie!

Is drilling a sidetrack easier or harder to manage than connecting an existing gas field to feed into BG main pipeline?

Understand this and the current share price makes more sense. First gas won't change the market's view of project management competence.