RE: RNS25 Jan 2019 17:36
From what I read, the coal asset is doing just fine. There was some downtime while the highwaller moved to the new location (closer to the customer and so better costs) but it's now settled there for a few years. It's break-even at 1000 tpd and they did 43,530 tonnes in Oct. Do the math.
At the AGM I asked Scott about what 'break even' meant - many miners have different layers of costs, so C1 cash costs aren't the same as AISC or plc-level costs. Scott confirmed that MET was a 'think layer' so cashflow positivity refers to being cashflow positive at the MET level.
It's public knowledge that LHR have raised very substantial sums from Indian family offices and the like. Again, I asked what the relevance was to RGM. The answer was that an operation of this sort really needs scale, which means bringing other assets in (hence the LHR funding and expansion plans). As a result, LHR are incredibly motivated to make this work - as I said in the meeting, this is essentially "proof of principle". LHR really REALLY need to demonstrate success with Omega because that's the key to unlocking their much bigger plans. And remember that LHR, not RGM, are the operators here.
I also asked what the end game (value crystallisation) plan was for MET. You could think of a number of scenarios of course, but to me the obvious ones are (a) LHR use some of their fundraise to buy out RGM and so make it a cleaner vehicle to IPO or (b) RGM retain a minority interest like RRR did so successfully with Jupiter / Tshipi. Either way, it certainly won't stay as RGM being a 50:50 JV partner in a one-mine coal operation indefinitely. This is just a stepping stone. An attractive option would be (for me) a mix of the two - enough cash to repay RF, and a free carry with the rest a la JMS/Tshipi. But I have no knowledge of what the actual plan is I hasten to add.
As a final point, LHR also need to demonstrate they can make money for shareholders - and are thus highly motivated to show that by MET becoming cash-flow positive at the MET level and starting to return cash via dividends to the JV partners.
If you look at the coal assets thru a Legacy Hill Resources lens - and try to avoid your gut-reaction, blinkered view zumore et al - I think it's actually very decent and being run by a credible team. Remember, Andrew does every now and again pull off good deals (JMS being a classic) and I for one am certainly warm to the coal asset as a 'company maker'.
I appreciate that this isn't a viewpoint that will go down well with the diehard critics, but the difference being I back my views by risking my own capital here - I most recently bought early Jan 2019.