Member Info for Okehurst1

Yeah they have loaded up apparently, just one of them 0.03% :-)

Cheers Steve

PM, interesting
Any chance of the link to the Short increase ?

How big is it? Percentage wise ?

I don’t think it’s in the Companies interest - at the moment - to think about current shareholders, that will come later, rebuilding the balance sheet / going concern accounts to be re - listed

Fiduciary responsibility comes first for the new BoD

Bob Holt will find a sweet spot on what II’s are prepared to pay for new shares, BOO and long term II’s make the call there and then to take up their rights or not / PI’s then get a chance via the open offer

For what it’s worth I’ve met Bob a few times whilst he was heading up Mears, he is an experienced Pro who will pull this off, 100% confident.

Hi Silver

The auditors won’t sign off as going concern

Rev B can’t retain its quote without … AIM team rules

So they need to cover all bases, it will be a decent
£ raise

No need to pay 80p to II investors

Bob Holt will force them to take up their rights or be diluted, he will price at attractive rate for the new money, he won’t be paying a premium for existing shares, the Co needs all the cash it can raise

Company first in this case - fiduciary duties

Hi HH

Suggest the BoD will carry out a placing with an attached Open Offer
no idea on price, this event has to happen before relisting - all about going concern sign off

The £20M outstanding on the Factory needs to be sorted to get sign off as going concern so they raise a relative substantial amount so they have in reserves

Worse case fund raise so to speak, working cap plus the £20M
whatever that comes to?

The Macro had changed since Q3 plus no red dot profit warning - they have delivered bottom end minimum
Plus THG have to build back credibility with the market, it’s early doors yet.

Put aside Whey is heading to 50% off April 2022 price

Nutrition makes 15% EBITA, it could well hit £700M Rev next 12 months that’s big money returns

Quoted Beauty ‘peers ‘have reported decent growth /numbers ULTA before Xmas / Boots post

We need capex slashing - which I think they will - and we are FCF positive, it’s the final piece of the jigsaw

I value Ingenuity at zero at this point

Could Moulding also pull a big rabbit out of the Hat? Without doubt, but even without an ‘ event’ we are heading north of £1

Think so Sb

It all about the entry point really ,Short or Long

No good if the Shorts can’t take profit

The macro picture is changing as the market looks forward 12 months, the Shorts need to unlock their profits whilst they can - depending on entry point

It worked well for the Shorts on the way down with a small free float and no full listing

Those same conditions working against them the opposite way now, lot of paper profit tied up for them plus the cost of capital funding loan

Must be decent orders in with brokers, MM’s push the Bid down, get what they can, move up the offer
Repeat / Rinse last few days

Point being this isn’t us little PI’s it’s heavy orders on the Offer and the instruction price being lifted daily

Suggest a chunk of the 70M short have been trying to exit their positions in an orderly manner but it’s starting to look like a little panicky

60% jump in the share price from last week to this week

Put aside Medichem

So the two main executive directors were personally paying money to Rev B distributors who would then buy products from Rev B but the products wouldn’t go to the distributors but would go from one Rev B warehouse direct to another Rev B warehouse

But they didn’t tell the BoD ?

We have a sweet spot with the risk on market turning up / interest rates topping out/ inflation dropping, fundamentals on THG improving , Whey dropping, Beauty Peers performing well and gross margins heading back to mean

To top it all technicals showing a break out

We could touch 70p tomorrow with positioning in advance of Tuesday trading update
and the journey back to £1 continues
55% YTD already, been a fabulous week, more to come as well

It’s all about entry level
Long or short

Moni
At that point the shares tank and more pressure on Moulding

Long II’s won’t be happy, can’t see Qatar boys being too chuffed either, the GS expiring and he is exposed

Moulding is a too smart a boy to let that happen, we said if last week at 42p, stay cool we will all make good $$ here from this point, same applies today.

Let’s enjoy this run, lots more to go .

Moni, the guy will pivot

Strong into the close

MM’s keep pushing the Bid, must be some juicy orders in on the offer

ASOS 22% up … just shows what happens when Shorts bail

Market makers snapping up on the Bid
Looks like they are filling orders

1.8 buy
1.3 sell ratio

Has to be Short covering today ? Decent volume

Love em or hate them we couldn’t have bought in at the price many of us have enjoyed

ASOS up 20%
BOO 14%
THG. 10%

One big squeeze underway

Helicopter view

£120M EBITA 2022
Guidance £175M to £200M EBITA 2023
FCF positive - they pull back capex
Margin could be 7% - possible due to Whey

At this point as it stands today we are on forward 5X EBITA at bottom of range

Vs market 12X

Then the market looks at 2024 and the margin heading back to mean 8% +

Throw in just 10% growth this year next and 7% & 8% margin and we get serious FCF - all comes back to capex at that point

It’s so cheap at 65p - especially if they report as above near enough next week