Member Info for oiluser

I see Varde have upped short to 2.5% again. They started with that figure, reduced 3 times and now increased 3 times to arrive back at 2.5 again. All within a month. It doesnt look like a conviction short. Arbitrage / hedge? Anyone with info on varde.

US production down 600kbod now, and dropping fast.

Because Rystad expect US rig count to collapse to 200 by end of May, US production will be down by 4mbod by year end

Dont the Mexicans have a monster hedge? Trumpy will tell them to cut, and they will say yes sir.

I will be doubling up if I see 14p

Fair dinkins to them Russia and Opec, US always want their cake. Yet sanctioning countries out of the export market isn't market manipulation? I would beg to differ, and the simple facts are that the US has been manipulating markets to subsidize shale and opec + were supporting that and now they are saying "your turn uncle sam"

It will be a Tuesday screwing,

Have to bin you convb, your out. No need to be on here. And in case you didn't realise it by now, opec + produce about 40mbod, everyone else is approx 60mbod. Why on God's green earth would they absorb all the cut, they've done their part. It's now squarely in others court. No need reply mate, I wont see it.

Agprem, do you believe that the demand drop is 35mbod, I dont. Not even close.

Other than some naive journalists view can you provide any industry expert advice on demand destruction. Russian experts are quoted as saying maximum 20mbod. Bear in mind that seasonal dynamics would have indicated builds from March to June as per normal annual occurrence. Warm winter hasn't helped either. But warm weather started in ME and those countries will start consuming more oil as is a seasonal occurrence too. An overall 15mbod cut will be a really good result, and judging by what is coming out of meetings OPEC+ is considering 10mbod, leaving the rest that are responsible for 60% of daily production to decide how high they want the oil price. An additional 5mbod may see oil into low 40s, 10mbod may see oil at high 40,s. I suspect the OPEC + strategy is to draw the others into cuts and essentially make them market manipulators which will help in any future legal challenges to any legislation brought against the cartel.

This will get interesting if oil goes and stays above the BE $35,

When have we heard that before. "High probability".

It's just bad luck, I mean who could have predicted CV19

Flip a coin, but do you thin the US is going to cut in coordinated manner with OPEC++

Agreed on all counts oldtimer, if I was a betting man:):)

Here's your hat and what's your hurry, I note someone beat me to your discounted shares. I guess I have to wait and see what the right honourable Mr Putin does later today.

I'm going to buy them for under 20p

Indeed, waiting to see what direction oil will go. But in reality we need news on a CEO in seat and asset disposals

Tullow needs a CEO and news on portfolio management side of things,

Keep ur share just stop fkn moaning

Theres a 50/50 chance this will go back to 15, just sell and go. If it drops below 15 i will likely double my holding. Below 20 maybe i will top up.

Putin wont be doing SA / USA any favors today, they aren't afraid of sanctions or tariffs.