RE: Russia holds all the aces?6 Apr 2020 13:49
Jbatch, you read too much western junk
Petrodollar is under huge pressure, when countries like China and India want to trade with their suppliers in own currency then the end is nigh for dollar dominance. Russia burning through nothing, the collapse in 2015 was more severe and lasted longer. SA will have to halt or scrap their transition plans. The US will continue to subsidize shale, to allow wall street banks to withdraw in orderly manner. US production figures going to collapse, its what happens when the rigs are removed. Production had stagnated anyway at 60. Will see another 100 rigs gone in next month or so. Couple the rig losses with well depletions and it wont be that long before the us is back to 1mbod. That 3mbod will be made up from somewhere.
The argument that rigs will pile back in when oil is 60 is not a given, not without the bail out as wall street wont comeback in as before. People need to remember that there are 50billion in debt due this year, and 100billion next year.
Energy independence for US policy is very expensive and comes on the back of military efforts to cut out cheap producers like Iran and Venezuela. Market economics with strong arm tactics.
Personally I hope that Russia tells SA and US to fcuk off, and to sort the mess out between themselves. It will delay price support but it will hammer shale out of market in longer term.