Member Info for oilpeak2019

The analysis of Inspecs Group plc (SPEC.L), a designer, manufacturer, and distributor of eyewear operating a vertically integrated platform , indicates that the company is currently priced below its intrinsic value, reflecting acute market concerns regarding revenue contraction and near-term liquidity management. The current market capitalization stands near £74.2 million, translating to an Enterprise Value (EV) of approximately £110.2 million. Based on the midpoint of the company's FY2025 guidance, this implies a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of approximately 6.23x, representing a significant discount to the company’s most relevant publicly traded peer, Safilo Group (median EV/EBITDA of 8.3x).

The current valuation discount is rationalized by persistent net losses, two consecutive years of revenue decline, and the material disclosure of a debt covenant breach earlier in 2025. However, management’s successful execution of synergy extraction and cost control, evidenced by the projected margin expansion, provides a clear pathway for valuation re-rating.

Investment Conclusion

Inspecs demonstrates operational resilience by improving margin quality despite macroeconomic challenges. The target intrinsic value range anticipates the market re-rating the stock as operational stability and Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation are proven.

* Intrinsic Share Price Value Range: 95 pence – 125 pence per share.

* Mid-Point Target: 108 pence.

This mid-point target represents substantial potential upside from the current price (approximately 72 pence). The realization of this value is strictly conditional upon the mitigation of material balance sheet risks and sustained delivery of the stated profitability targets.

Recommendation

HOLD/NEUTRAL. A BUY recommendation is inappropriate given the acute liquidity sensitivities demonstrated by the recent cash flow cover covenant breach , which increases investment risk significantly. A SELL recommendation is unwarranted given the deep discount to peers and the promising margin expansion indicated in the latest trading update. The position is maintained as neutral until firm evidence of sustained FCF generation and reduced working capital burden is provided in forthcoming results.

I've been invested here for a number of years, and managed to make a profit - but Inspecs have missed their targtes for the past 3 years. Same old excuses for the past 3 years with the addition of Trump Tariffs. I've been syaing for ages they really do need to look at performance of their sales team with revenue falling lower each year. Easier for them to sell up and move on.

Have to confess, Inspecs have made excuse after excuse for thier poor performance. UK and US markets are flourishing yet Inspecs keep missing its sales targets over the past 2 to 3 years. I think they need a better sales/business development team. Performance to date is unaccpetable

INSPECS is a good solid company making a profit. Figures are less than expected. Turnover down 10% but still £197m with £17.5M profit. MD's wife bought £100k @47.25 in Nov 22 and CEO pension fund bought 500,000 at 48.5.

Company is still solid with its own manufacturing facilities (assets) to come online shortly. I believe this a good acquisition target with sell price greater than £1 per share

Salrs team keep missing their targets. Easy to blame EU economy. A different sales strategy might help or maybe it's time for a new sales director / team

So, a steady ramp up from 53p to 58p over the past week and then a 10% drop in one day. Someone is insider trader this stock

Shame - need some news here to ride the current stock market wave. No point releasing good newd when market starts falling

There's always a price for listing on another market. The locals expect a bit of a bargain initially so that they can load up on the cheap.

Inspecs originally floated at £2 per share and rose to £4. Since then the fundamentals have improved and are now stronger than at float. They have their own production facilities, a bigger customer base and reduced debt. In my very humble opinion the company is seriously undervalued at this price and a great takeover play. I am invested here - only a few thousand - but I'm here for the longterm and a minium price of £2 per share (not withstanding any future bad news)

There's been an interesting fall over the last few days - may be insiders know something - if so, does this count as market manipulation/insider trading?

UK AIM market is awash with insider trading

The UK AIM market is broken and no one believes in it these days. It has mostly been used to raise funds for small (and often broken) companies. INSPECS should move to FTSE market if they want to be recognised.

The market also relies on regular info (company news, analyst notes, briefings, recommendations) to promote interest in stock. All attention is on the US AI and technology market at the moment with investors diverting funds to these stocks where better short term money is to be made. Nothing will happen here until Q2 but at this price the company is ridiculously undervalued. Previous fair price was £1.15. They will have lost Ted Baker contract becos they have gone into administration and the high priced fashion market is under pressure at the moment, but this is a solid company and can easily win new supply

partnerships

To many games on the London Stock Exchange -that's why many LSE companies are delisting or listing on other exchanges. The LSE is dead.......

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/calculating-intrinsic-value-inspecs-group-050003392.html

Key Insights

* Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, INSPECS Group fair value estimate is UK£1.15

* Current share price of UK£0.92 suggests INSPECS Group is potentially trading close to its fair value

* Industry average discount to fair value of 24% suggests INSPECS Group's peers are currently trading at a higher discount

Key issue with SPECS though is investor interest

You're right about the lack of liquidity and this is certainly not a day or short term trade share, but when the share price movements can be big and happen quickly. I was fortunate, I bought a ton of shares when the MD's wife did at 42p and sold most of then at 120p. I'm back in now at 55p becos I think this is a great company and possibly a takeover target in 2 to 3 years time (or maybe soon after they bring their own production plant online). That's just my personal opinion of course

I agree with your sentiment regarding IPO's.

Many if the IPO's on the UK stock market have been inflated rip-offs.

Indeed I have an ongoing compensation case against SVS Securities with the FCA for over inflating IPO prices and mis-representing stock values dating back to the 2008. SVS is only one of many - with many still active today.

There is little incentive for any stock to list on the UK stock exchange and I would recommend any investor stays clear of any new IPO as the Uk market is full of cowboys

Don't forget the MD's wife bought several hundreds of thousands of pounds worth of shared on last dip, They're not going to through their money away

There seems to be no advantage to any company listing on the UK stock market. The US is a much more positive and supportive market. Too many negative games on the London market

This is a ludicrous drop on great trading results in difficult times. Revenues remained even, whilst large chunks of debt paid off and plant investments still on track and within budget.

A great buying opportunity

I thought this BoD would be different becos of their shareholder engagement and open communication. To be fair they have always hinted at fund raising in the past.

It's very cynical though to give a positive update and then follow it with a share issue announcement after hours a few days later.

Problem i have with these small explorers - is that continually fund raise whilst paying themselves a handsome salary and share options. They can't lose and only have to keep the gravy train going for 5 years to retire rich