Member Info for oilpeak2019

Put a zero after it and I may consider selling, but I think the longer journey is the better one.

£3 gets you to SDX target of $1billion. With that sort of money behind them a push to £1billion or $1.4billion is not far behind (especially as all production to date is highly profitable).

And if the can keep their current production profits - a take over price of $2billion is not unreasonable.

It all jam tomorrow - but we are starting from a strong position with a careful and pragmatic board with reasonable abitions.

Regarding ShakePremis - I welcome his balanced views on this board. I don't think he's deramping SDX and I don't think he's cynical. We can all get caught up in our our belief and enthusiasm. I was planning my retirement on the BP deal, but I also had a sneaky feeling it wouldn't come off the moment news was leaked.

Share price is being hammered becos of lack of deal, no news on SRM3 and a void in communications following the deal falling through.
Have a feeling SRM3 will be duster given delays in comms on progress (very unlike PW)
SDX value is unrealised at the moment but is now a slow-burn in getting there. Suspect the speculators are moving their money to more short tem exciting stocks.
Current price presents a good buying opportunity though

Hi Angela

I have to agree with jag on this one as no details of the discussions or nature of the deal have been released.

Whilst your guestimate of £1.50 per share is a fair as any one else's guess, £1.50 does seem a bit low if (and its a big if) the deal is anywhere near the guesses on this board. But if we assume the true value of the shares was circa 90p to £1.00 before the deal - your target of £1.50 seems far too low when the shares begin trading again (assuming SDX have managed to close a deal).

PW is a sensible operator, so the key issue here right now is whether he can secure a deal on the right terms for SDX. If he can't, I'll assume he'll walk away and we will have to wait 2 to 3 years for the full value (target £1bn) to come to fruition . Assuming the deal is good this could be a $500k company within a few months, with $1bn being hit the moment any pay down to BP is completed.

Personally (and its a no better guestimate than your own), I think the shares will be min £2 by end of year, but I looking at £5 longer term given PW's strategy and more importantly what he and the team have achieved to date.

The full value will be delivered to shareholders when SDX is sold (presumably at a premium)

It's all guess work, but I think we're at the start of a very interesting journey

I've never followed Serica so I can't compare. There is a belief that the SDX share price has been held back and should be circa 90p plus before now. So there may also be some release of the tension that has been building in the SDX price on top of the uplift from the BP deal.

It also appears the Serica share price trebled after the BP deal. What was Serica's production rate before and after the deal? SDX was aiming for 7,000bode before the deal, and the rumours on the discussion boards indicate there could be 70,000 bopd if the deal is what we think it is. So long as SDX pays for the deal by produced oil and not a placing, this deal could be transformative for the company and the share price.

Like all of us, I'm trying to guess what the value of SDX will be 12 months, 24 months and 36 months out from the deal - although I suspect SDX will be snapped up long before 2 years are out

IMHO - and not advice - if the deal is confirmed, I suspect we will see a good rise on the first day or two after return to trading. Many investors will quickly take advantage of the rise (II's and PI's who bought in below pre-suspension prices) to take a quick profit (which is understandable becos there's no profit unless you bank it).

The price rise will undoubtedly recede slightly from immediate profit taking and the MM's will do as much as they can to milk people's fears in this period. But the pull back will provide many day trading opportunities for a couple of weeks I suspect (until PW can truly assess what he's bought and puts a new development plan on the table)

Personally, unless BP take out SDX, I think this is just the start of the next phase of SDX's growth story and that we will see a steady long term rise on the back of the massively increased bpod (if PW gets the deal we think he will), because he will be able to pay BP off quickly with profits from current SDX portfolio. Day traders will take a small risk trading in/out in short term, but long term story should be good.

So personally, I'm a long term investor here (unless BP deal isn't great) as I think if PW can prove up new life in old BP fields and use opportunity/acerage to drill new ones creating more value.

Then of course, there's the end game - of PW selling SDX - which may be much sooner now then we think (24 months maybe).

I have no idea if this is a 10 bagger or not. With the SP kept down for over 6 months now, this may be the moment the SP finally finds its true value. I've been here since 40p and I'm here for the distance (unless deal goes horribly wrong)

I can't think of any other theory that fits the behaviour of this share MM's work market on behalf of their client and no one else. Someone is building a significant holding in this. If you hold £30 million shares - a 50‰ gain is substantial and institutional investors will be happy but private investors will be short changed. Don't agree that market makers need to declare their position - it's only final share holders - so MM's could build stake on someone else's behalf off-book. I'm fully invested in Sdx and here to the bitter end - we will get shafted - not by SDX board - seen it too many times before - so a 50% rise will be welcome - but the multi bagger scenario will be list

Absolutely - ithaca energy all over again

How about possible scenario that a market maker is buying large percentage of shares on behalf of undisclosed buyer (with intent to acquire Sdx cheaply). Buyer doesnt need to declare position as shares are held on their behalf by market maker. Then they will pounce when they have enough

Good point regarding Iranian partner. However, I would like to think (believe) that SDX needs no US support to achieve its goals. It's generating cash, is based in Canada, produces and sells its gas ad oil in Morocco and Egypt. It's difficult to see what the US can do........... Fk Trump

Thanks for views. Interesting times ahead and I'm invested for the distance. This is one of the better boards on LSE with little nonsense and hype

I no expert and the Aim market is never logical but moved out of Sound into Sdx becos they are generating revenue and profits. Sound valued at circa £400m (with possible - but I would say unconfirmed reserves of 3Tcf) and no income. Sdx valued at £130m. If Kelvin confirms 2. 5Tcf then Sdx should be circa 3 to 4 times current value. Sdx aiming to be £1bn or 1bn Canadian dollars within 3 to 5 years - 8 times current value. I suspect it will happen sooner - prove up reserves, increase profit and sell

I'm not a big poster on these boards these days but I do visit everyday as 90% my SIPP in SDX. I know I said this a few weeks ago - but my fear is this is another Canadian company listed on AIM and in Canada, with a share price being artificially held back. With the recent share awards to the Directors this smells too much like Ithaca who really shafted PI's. Even though share options vest in 3 years - they can still be exercised if the company is bought out for �1.50p (say) next week netting the Directors a cool sum of money in the process. Also, like Ithaca - the Board could be offered fantastic salaries/share pans in the takeover company to compensate them personally for selling out cheap. In other words, lets hope the board aren't lining their own pockets and lining company up for a cheap sell at PI expense. The way it works (I've experienced in practise) is the share holders will all be happy if an offer for �1 comes in because they double their money, but the crime is that the company should have been sold for �5. The takeover company manages to pay �1 per share because of backroom deal with Directors. Shareholders don't realise what they should have got. I'm not accusing SDX of this - I'm just asking question why share price is held back - and putting down a marker that we can reference and demand an investigation if the same Ithaca practice is carried out here I'm not deramping - I almost full-in with SDX and I want to realise full value of my shares if an offer comes in shortly