Member Info for OilNovice

I am investing here so won't do anything until I reassess my portfolio in January 2020.
Other than buying at sub 0.10p if the opportunity arises.

As with any small cap, that golden RNS could come at any time, and you have to be in it to benefit... It's risk vs reward.

And if it is any consolation, I agree that people selling 'at the low' tend to be the people who lose money. Invest long term or day trade.

I think PIs are assessing the news at hand and then trading with the new information given.
Basically, the RNS is saying that (unless there is positive news - caveat) the company are going to introduce 900m more shares within six months - which equates to a 66% sp drop.

Maybe they don't like the sound of that and want to get out now.
Maybe they will come back in when they feel the value is right.
Maybe they are stupid as you say.

Joe - what I am saying is the market knows the BoD will take all tranches, and that it will be agreed at the GM, and we will publish a prospectus - the impact of the FA is being factored in now - it is public knowledge.

A bit like Brexit, when we voted for it we knew it wouldn't happen for 2 or 3 years but the market reacts straight away...

My opinion is the dilution of the Deed of Settlement share issue is being factored in to the sp. This logically brings the sp down to 0.175p - similar to where we were yesterday.

The next logical drop is from the first tranche of dilution of new Financing Agreement (£275k) which equates to a c.10% dilution. It looks like this is being factored in today.
Unfortunately, I do agree with the pessimists that this share will continue to factor in the full £1.35m FA dilution as we go through summer, until positive news is released. Ultimately I can realistically see this dropping down to 0.075p with no news.

BUT, as always, the brave investor is one who strikes when others are fearful. I believe by September/ October, when this is likely below 0.1p, THAT is when the smart money starts buying. It will also likely coincide with a wider global stock market 'wobble' that intensifies into 2020.
I am saving for the sub 0.1p moment, and will be investing significant money at that point.

Sycric - if it is EHGOS, they only have 400m shares to dump... sigh...
Let's hope there are some big BUYERS of these - maybe a Director or two??!

Reso - I disagree. There are many companies that have increased 500%+. Some over one day, some over a week, some over a month. Most over a longer time period. But it is possible.

Whenever a stock is beaten, battered and looking dismal, that is when you have to look at the fundamentals and re-assess... Most on this board have believed fundamentally that the company could easily become a £20m++ MCAP company.
If I had my optimistic hat on my opinion would be:
- we have probably now seen the last of any financing, bar future acquisitions which should only be seen as positive by markets
- legacy issues sorted and no more debts
- platform in place so new contracts easier to close
- (possible) director purchasing
- (possible) contract news flow over the coming weeks
- (possible) future acquisitions

Cahus - I can't analyse the acquisition as there is no detail on it. We don't know the price (shares) that will be offered, and we have no idea of the cash flow / profitability of the company. Ergo, no facts. Ergo, no analysis.

I would put this in the 'future positive news' category when the granularity is released.

Okay... contribution...

Looking at this RNS from a technical / analytical perspective of facts.
- they are introducing £1.375m of new shares through loan notes
- they are issuing a further 238m shares as the Deed of Settlement to EHGOS
- they may need another £400k for final creditor settlement, though confident this will not be the case

Working on yesterday's close - 1.3bn shares at £0.0022 = £2.8m MCAP
Therefore, the diluting effect is:
1 - the £1.375m loan notes + 238m shares Deed of Settlement = c.900m shares = c.66% dilution
2 - there could potentially then be another £400k needed (at new dilution sp of 0.07p) = c.500m shares = a further c.22% dilution

SO, the end point of all this...

A likely sp of 0.075p near term (within weeks) and potentially down to 0.055p if more cash needed for creditors.

This all assumes no positive news flow. Which will counteract the dilution, hopefully.

JonnyRanger - surely that is what Iconic are building now, a fanbase + following + noise prior to the hard launch? It takes time, and I'm sure they want the business process to be right and able to meet any demand... The next step is the website (they have stated this already), then I would presume marketing and hype. for the hard launch.

Wacca - I very much doubt any of the BoD look at BBs on these sites. They probably only get exposure to PIs through emails / GMs.

It takes time to setup a new business (but looks like this is nearly done).
It takes time to build a brand (this is the next step).
It takes time to market and build hype.
But done right, the rewards could be big and very fast...

Let this play out - there will be sporadic RNSs to update on progress, with the sp building over the next few months (key RNS will be legacy issues cleared + Director buying + new contracts maybe).
But I don't foresee the launch being before Jan 2020... But after this, if done right, this could really take off.

They can't lie about signing a contract - I am sure the £1m contract is real. They are probably just finalising t&cs...
Also, thinking about some people not liking DS involvement (i.e. is it a tax right off / shell), there are also the ex-Unilad guys who I'm sure want to create a strong and profitable business. They won't want this to fail, surely?

BUT, the proof will be when I see significant Director shareholdings. That is when this sp will take off (+ WDC business disposal, legacy debt issues resolved).

zzzzzz......
I feel sleepy just looking at this... haha...

The calm before the storm maybe???

Surely the smart investors will wait until the £ finishes its drop to parity with the $ - which could also mean parity with the Euro...
First milestone is Halloween, and the week following.

Brycen - if DS isn’t invested then him and shareholders do not have an aligned interest?!
Until I see that he has a significant interest in Iconic, as well as the rest of the BoD, this will always be a speculative stock.

I am long on this share (will leave it and review again jan next year) - pending significant news.
I am still positive and am excited by the news flow that is inevitable from this early stage company.

This is not a stock to trade, or to be emotional about. If you see value, invest and wait for the news flow.

Thanks

The Soft Launch yes. But there is so much more to do...
- The website needs significant development
- They need to 'crystallise' the Business Model - This means they need to articulate their unique offering (hopefully this has begun and was part of the Soft Launch... I'm not convinced)

But it looks like there is a positive start - as your snippets suggest.
My guess is that the early BD success has been through existing relationships. But it will take more than a steak dinner and stripper to get businesses to sign on the dotted line these days...

Jonny - they need collateral, sales material, a strategically focused website. They need to spend time getting fit to fight, pre-positioning the new brand, finalising the value propositions.

Even with the contacts they have in the industry, they still need to sell Iconic and have a unique offering that is well articulated. Otherwise their leads and opportunities will not be converted.

Give them time. I’d hope that they have begun this process and maybe they just got lucky with the £1m contract...

Don’t think so. Since those sells most days we have had 1:1 buys:sells. There were probably a few exceptions but nowhere near the 10:1 when they sold over 300m...

Remember in late June when the fund sold over 300m shares at 0.3p, when the sp was circa 0.35p. Everyone thought they were crazy.
Looks like a good move now, no?

BUT. Someone must have accepted those shares and paid 0.3p. So my question is who? And why?
Was it an MM?
Was it a broker?
Was it the BoD?

Answers on a postcard.

Whoever it was, they have nearly £1m of shares burning a hole in their balance sheet.
Do they know more than us mere mortals????!!!

Interesting that we are back at 0.25p. Didn’t think we’d see it again. But I cannot help but think there is a reason.
It is not beyond craziness that the new BoD want a stake. And to get a good price they need a low sp. what if we saw JQ, LM and maybe even DS taking a stake...
One can dream...

My opinion and non-evidence based view is that they took over WDC through connections with EHGOS et al.
I also think there could be a healthcare slant to the new business model (Iconic Labs) which would help them bring in large pharma such as Pfizer, GSK etc.

Smokin - all I’m saying is your inference is factual. It could be very misleading for someone reading your posts.
Wild Card - thanks for the link. It does sound like Sefton wants to shut down the stem cell business. Looking forward to seeing an RNS for this.