Member Info for OilNovice

Hey Buythose

Resistance may come from the 0.36p Warrant price. As we go north of this price, some holders may choose to exercise their Warrants (750,000,000 outstanding). If the sp gets over 0.6p for 10 days, the company has the option of forcing Warrant holders to exercise their Warrants which may hinder the rise.

But as you state, the cash flow benefit is key, and it could offset the resistance...

GoH.

You may want to revisit my post, i was alluding to the trend. It was downward (during Lanstead days) to upwards (after Lanstead). Maybe I was not clear.

As with any long term period there were exceptions for news. Which I pointed out in my post. Look at the general trend outside of the spikes.

The challenge now is not breaching the higher lows. As GG said.

GoH has provided the link, Lanstead reported being below 3% last August. My guess is that they are out and long gone...

Look at the longer term chart (since Lanstead came on board) there was constant selling pressure on news due to the constant selling by Lanstead. Share price was constantly being driven down. Even on outstanding news (BCM JVs) we got the spike, but couldn't maintain the increase.

Since Q2 2025, when we knew Lanstead were exiting, the share price has steadily increased. As GG said, higher lows. Fundamentals are improving and the share price is moving up with it. But more importantly, the MCAP is increasing. We got spikes on 'bonanza' grade news, fine, but fundamentals are still intact and in line with what you'd expect from a junior mining company in an unproven jurisdiction.

April 2025. sp 0.153p. MCAP was c.£6m

Today. sp 0.31p. MCAP is c.£15m

The total number of shares is irrelevant, Oriole's time will come.

There are two new holes being drilled in close proximity to the 'bonanza' grade holes 18 and 19 previously found. To the north of the deposit. These look like the most prospective of the step-out campaign. The two new holes to the West are also near quite high grade finds.

It would be lovely to see more high grades in these holes, but the key here is finding gold in the southern new holes - as this would confirm extension at scale. Looking forward to these results.

It's okay to disagree with someone. It's healthy. I think what Oriole are doing with regards to marketing and strategy is balanced and will ultimately create value for shareholders. but it will take time. I don't agree with your suggestions on marketing for the reasons we've discussed on this thread. And that's okay.

From the interviews the Board have done and the investor events, my view is that they won't change.

I do think you should speak with Martin and the Board and get their thoughts on your marketing approach - they may be receptive and like it. It may work. Who knows. And I don't mean to come across as condescending, I just don't agree with your argument.

A bit of self-reflection on your portfolio performance is always beneficial. You're right to challenge the Board and their decisions. But if the answer is given, and you don't agree with it, reflect on your choices. Maybe you should sell and move on. There are plenty of junior explorers with more dynamic and promotional leadership teams.

All I ask is that we keep the chat forum civil and informative.

GoH - what's your time horizon? When you invested you would have had an exit strategy - if the investment is not going as planned, sell. If you are happy to wait, hold. If you believe the story, buy more.

I think your issue is a 'you' problem, and nothing the company can resolve.

There are some significant holders:

- Ivor Jarman holds 6%

- RAB capital hold 2.1%

- The BoD hold 6.7%

- Several posters on here hold between 0.5% - 1% (me included)

I'd say that's a good position to be in. Yes it could be better. But it is slow and steady.

There are some significant holders:

- Ivor Jarman holds 6%

- RAB capital hold 2.1%

- The BoD hold 6.7%

- Several posters on here hold between 0.5% - 1% (me included)

I'd say that's a good position to be in. Yes it could be better. But it is slow and steady.

Collectively, the Board hold c.6% - Maybe ask Martin if he intends to increase his share holding. I'd also love to see him invest more.

Yes, the share price is flat for the last 2 years, but MCAP is up 30%. And as GG says, we are at the start of the journey, the turnaround.

HNWI investors will look at the long term story here - 5 to 10 years - with a high risk/reward approach - when they eventually sell, I'm sure their ROCE will be at least 15% per year equivalent. If they wanted a safe 5-15% annual return they would just put the money in an index fund.

GoH

If this is what you believe, then your money may be better invested elsewhere. I doubt the Board are going to change their stance on marketing and funding strategy. I disagree that AIM is a meme index... yes there are some awful companies out there, lifestyle companies, shells, etc. but there are also some really compelling businesses. They need to start somewhere and AIM is typically that place.

As investors, we need to not get caught up in the hype of charlatan Boards and baseless 'ramping' on chat forums. Be researched and well-informed.

Oriole will likely need to raise again in Q4, the question is whether the events leading up to that time trigger MCAP increase, I'm betting they do:

- Exploitation Licence (Mining Permit) for Bibemi

- Upgraded JORC MRE for Mbe

- Possible additional step-out drilling for Mbe (if still open after current drilling)

- Senala JV and further drilling campaign

- Results / planned work for Eastern CLP licences

Anyway, you either believe in the story or not.

GoH

Impact of marketing depends on your time horizon.

If you introduce hype and expectation, your results need to meet that hype. Otherwise you get the classic 'buy the hype, sell the news' scenario. Volatility and doubt creep in. Great for short term traders but unlikely to interest II and HNWI for the journey.

Oriole have stated they want to take it slow and steady - the know the geology is great, and they know the key value inflection points (JV, MRE, PEA, EL, DFS, Production/Sale). Oriole is a long-term play. Buy when you can and let it play out.

It may be frustrating that other junior explorers are moving more, or have more hype, and Oriole seems to just sit within range. But, think where Oriole will be at the end of 2026, or 2027, and compare that with the other junior explorers. My bet is there are very very few that will be anywhere near Oriole. Caveat being we need to get through the de-risking events.

Tbcx

I've been watching Jan for a while but not invested yet, as like you, I've tried to compare junior explorers to find undervalued companies. To me, it's a risk/reward play. There are more undervalued plays out there (i.e. NEO (£25m MCAP with c.5m oz), ORR (£16m MCAP with c.1.5m oz)) but these have higher risk events that need to play out. Jan needs to find the gold and the Molly results will hopefully demonstrate this soon. OMI and WSBN have more hype and are probably safer plays - established jurisdictions / high grades / etc.

Jan is an interesting one and MCAP direction will be all on Molly 2 in my opinion. If they find high grades this could be the making of a significant asset.

GoH - yes, Clare mentioned in the presentation that, for Mbe, the plan was to undertake the South step-out drilling (already funded and happening now) to increase oz and try to find where the deposit ends. My assumption is that after the step-out drilling, regardless of whether the deposit remains open, they will undertake infill drilling at 100m to prove up the confidence and update the MRE to JORC Indicated.

Martin has stressed previously that Oriole do not want to dilute share price and don't want to give away licence % when raising funds for future exploration - reading between the lines, I'd suggest that Mbe will be explored / drilled enough to guarantee the $1m bonus payment, which will be used to continue funding further exploration at Mbe (and ideally fund PLC). With the aim that they can increase to 2moz, then use the additional $1m bonus payment to fund PLC. Rinse and repeat until we find where the deposit ends.

With Senala - I'd be happy to reduce % stake for a free ride.

With Bibemi - I'd be happy if they reduced % stake for a free ride. It's unlikely to get to 1moz so unlikely to receive a bonus payment.

If you start to look forward at 2027/28, it's possible that Oriole could have an operational mine at Bibemi which could fund the PLC + Mbe going through feasibility and mine construction with large-scale potential of c.250,000oz per year + proving up the scale of Ndom and the other Eastern CLP licences + exploration of Western CLP. 2026 MCAP currently £17m --> 2028 MCAP £250m???

I thought the $1m bonus payment was based on 1m oz with at least 50% in the Indicated category?

I'll have a read through the RNS...

Just watched the presentation. Main points for me:

- Current value of Oriole is c.$25 per oz of gold. Average value for peer group is c.$148 per oz.

- Bibemi EL confident it will be granted this year. Timeline difficult to predict as out of their direct control. Good working relationship. Negotiations are with SONAMINES. Concurrent metallurgic tests, technical analysis. Once EL granted, modular mining equipment and small-scale nature of mine (70,000oz over 7 years) should allow quick start to production.

- Mbe step-out drilling to increase oz results early Q3. Then infill drilling to prove up resource into JORC Indicated confidence (South and North). Will buy out 10% local partner. All this year.

- Senala JV agreement is imminent (sigh, again). Also planning next phase of drilling. All this year.

- Eastern CLP rock chip sampling, trenching results will come as and when. Much more exploration in 2026.

- Western CLP exploration plan in 2026.

- Wapouze - not mentioned.

- Turkey - not mentioned.

- Djibouti - not mentioned.

My conclusion - I think that by end of 2026, Oriole should directly have (factoring % share) nearly 0.75m oz at Mbe and 0.5m oz at Bibemi / Senala; partners for the other CLP licence areas who will provide project level funding; an EL granted for Bibemi and mine under construction; maybe progress on Senala JV.

Antibacterial - Martin stated that the submitted Exploitation Licence is going through the due process with the Cameroon government. This included metallurgy testing, as well as other surveys / tests (not specified). The licence is for a 'small scale' mine - though nothing specific was stated in terms of whether this is an easier application or not. Once approved, Oriole will have no more than two years to develop the mine and start production. Again, the specifics were not discussed.

This is all from memory after watching the video this morning. I'd recommend you watch yourself as a lot was said.

Hey BIKWIK

There are two fundamental price points to bear in mind.

Resistance may come from the 0.36p Warrant price. As we go north of this price, holders are likely to exercise their Warrants (750,000,000).

Similarly, if the sp gets over 0.6p for 10 days, Warrant holders may be forced to exercise their Warrants which could hinder the rise.

In my view, all good news as exercising the Warrants provides cash flow AND means the sp is heading in the right direction!

BSR - you wanna come to the 1p and 2p party this year??

Haha, BSR, if you have nothing useful to contribute then please do stay away - I'm all for a good debate and discussing different points of view but you need to be able to back up your claims and have some evidence / factual context. I'm still not sure what your rebuttal is. Or what I have got wrong by stating facts about a company I am invested in.

Wish you well in your endeavours.