Member Info for OilNovice

1. MCAP

ORR - £15.7m

JAN - £10.5m

2. Total JORC resources

ORR - 1,485,000oz (728,500 owned by ORR after earn-in split).

JAN - 210,000 under CBRR not JORC (70,000 owned by JAN).

3. Total Additional Exploration Target Resources

ORR - 750,000 to 1,255,000 (341,000 to 569,000 after earn-in split).

JAN - 140,000 (46,667 owned by JAN).

4. Location(s) and risk factor of location(s)

ORR - Cameroon is untested; Senegal stable.

JAN - Brazil stable.

5. Licence(s) granted and associated risks

ORR - Exploration licences all granted. Exploitation licence in progress.

JAN - exploration licences granted. Exploitation licence in progress.

6. AISC (or nearby comparison)

ORR - $1,243 / oz.

JAN - $900-$1000 / oz comparable

7. TopCo cash runway (£ + date funded up to)

ORR - c.£2.3m funded up to Q2 2027.

JAN - c.£1.3m+ plus assets available to sell plus warrants. Funded up to Q2 2026.

8. Project(s) funding status (JV, earn-in %, royalties, etc.)

ORR - BCM JV partner funding 2x projects in Cameroon. Will earn 50% interest. Managem JV partner funding project in Senegal will earn 59% interest.

JAN - Acquired 33.3% equity. Can own up to 50.1%. Project funding included in TopCo cash runway.

9. BoD + II shareholding

ORR - c.7% BoD + c.2% II.

JAN - c.8% BoD

10. Other value add operations

ORR - Three other prospective Cameroon licences + Türkiye royalties + seeking partner for limestone production.

JAN - Vanadium and Titanium asset ($96m NPV in 2022) being progressed after gold assets.

Like GoH, I want to begin writing fact-based posts on the bb comparing other AIM listed junior explorers with Oriole, to give some evidence on the 'we are undervalued' thesis we keep hearing. others on here are more than welcome to join in. I think it could start to paint an interesting picture across AIM...

I will start with JAN, as this has been mentioned many times on this bb and has lots of retail interest currently.

Other stocks I'd like to get to (unless someone else wants to do the analysis) include WSBN, HAMA, and CORA.

I want to distil only useful and relevant data from RNS and be as factual as possible. The key elements to cover:

1. MCAP

2. Total JORC resources

3. Total Additional Exploration Target Resources

4. Location(s) and risk factor of location(s)

5. Licence(s) granted and associated risks

6. AISC (or of adjacent licences)

7. TopCo cash runway (£ + date funded up to)

8. Project(s) funding status (JV, earn-in %, royalties, etc.)

9. BoD + II shareholding

10. Other value add operations

I'll work on JAN on my train home tonight.

Good to see the tick up.

Two £12,500 buys will show up at close.

I'm with BIKWIK on this one, I want ORR to be the one to watch in 2026!

GG. You’re right.

My revised potential sp for end of 2026 - taking into account forex and ownership % of BCM.

Circa 1.5p to 3.5p.

Let’s see where it goes.

Benh. I am close to having 1%, yes.

I added quite a lot this summer. And again today.

You’re right that you should take everything with a pinch of salt. Always ask questions. But I do think this bb is generally positive and useful. Mostly true and honest.

Although I have just realised that I haven’t factored in forex to my sp prediction, so it should come down 30% or so. But still a good end of 2026 target.

As always, this is just my calculations. DYOR.

GofH

Reading your posts is helpful for new investors - please keep up the good work. One thing I believe your post needs clarity on - the NPV is after paying CAPEX for the plant ($60.4m). They state the CAPEX is paid back in 4 years. It may or may not be BCM who funds this. It doesn’t really matter.

Even at ‘base case’ of 72koz, the NPV is $12.8m. Our current MCAP.

x5 to that to include all known resources at Bibemi.

x2 for the rest of Bibemi exploration target.

NPV for Bibemi becomes = $128m+

Now apply to Mbe.

NPV for Mbe likely = $250m+

Now run the numbers at gold price @ $4,000.

NPV for Bibemi = $349m+

NPV for Mbe likely= $700m+

By the end of 2026, little Oriole could be valued between $375m - $1bn. With licence. Funded. Assuming a 50% risk profile / discount, that’s 4p - 10p per share.

Add Senegal. Add Wapouze. Add Turkey.

Then we have Ndom / Pokor / Tenoukou. Which could add even more. But we won’t know for a couple of years.

I added today. Now fast approaching 50m shares.

For me, the frustration comes from watching other stocks doing well, rising on speculation / potential, and some being valued more than us with far, far less 'proven' value. Some may argue that is down to the BoD and lack of marketing and comms...

I do agree with GoH that this should reach its fair value soon.

I haven't sold out. I still have a large holding.

The recent placing RNS provided the strategic update I was after. And I am happy with it. Lots of news flow over the next 3, 6, 9, 12 months.

But I am very surprised the sp is so low!

If I can free up some money, I'll buy more (and let you know).

Yankee - the Warrant is an option to purchase an additional ordinary share at a price of 0.36p. But must be purchased before 28 November 2027.

So only a good if the price moves above 0.36p.

Tuck - the challenge Japan has is the majority of the REEs are under the sea bed and difficult to extract. Also, limited exploration / exploitation currently so a long way behind other countries. The recycling element is going to be needed to provide the short-term REE / magnets. Very bullish for MKA.

Kutzzz - surprised you didn't say Mkango Resources. For me a better play than Pensana.

Nasdaq listing for their REE mining business in Q4 (worth $400m to MKA). Valuation was way before REE craze.

Their REE mine has already received Strategic Importance classification from Europe and US. With construction financing already raised.

US and EU grants in place with additional funding secured.

Other side of the business is their magnet HyProMag recycling facility in Birmingham which can recycle old motors / magnets into new.

Also, three HyProMag facilities being built in US to refine REEs and make magnets.

Plus further facilities in Europe and Asia.

Sorry for cross-ramping - no more from me - but MKA really is worth a look.

Contrarian

If we stick to the facts and what has been released through RNS, the Exploration Target for Mbe had a MEDIAN of 38Mt at a mean grade of 0.86g/t for 1.1Moz contained gold. This is for Mbe South and North (based on RNS from 9 July).

Since then, the strike length for Mbe South has increased from 200m to 500m with a width from 500m (can someone confirm?) to 550m, and depth from 200m to 290m.

So, in terms of volume, the scale has increased by 4x times. Now I do not know how that will translate into the MRE and grade, koz etc... But I can only assume it could increase?? But I am NOT a geologist.

Then there will be Mbe North drilling - but Oriole may decide to separate North and South and hopefully a PEA for Mbe South to follow thereafter.

Lol - GoldG - guessing you're not a crypto believer??? !!

GOH - I've noticed this as well, many companies creating Bitcoin Treasuries (or using other crypto).

My understanding is they can loan against the value of BTC (up to 50% typically) and are 'expecting' the value of BTC to increase...

For some, it has brought new investors i.e. the crypto crowd, but for me, I see it as a risky approach and I'd rather see monies spent on exploration.

Each to their own I suppose...

I agree gus0 that Bob Smeeton MUST provide an update on how he is going to finance the business for the next 12-18 months.

And I agree that this is the biggest share price obstacle right now for realising value...

I truly hope we don't drop back down into the low 0.2s again. Those days should be behind us. And as we move towards the MRE we should get some momentum.

Also, we should start seeing some exploration progress on the other CLP licence.

Gus0 - correct me if I'm wrong, but are you sure of your maths?

Warrants @ 0.25p = 147m or 3.47% of share capital.

This was agreed when

Options @ 0.33p = approx. 300m or 7.5% or share capital in hands of BoD.

Other Options = approx. 100m or 2.5% of share capital - I cannot find the strike price.

If all Warrant holders exercise their rights, then ORR receive £367k which I presume can be used for operating costs.

Similarly, the BoD could decide that they exercise their Options to fund the company - or sell their Options to an II / HNWI??

The Options would bring in nearly £1m, and although would be dilutive in nature, would hopefully be seen as positive by the markets (depending on where the sp is at time of conversion).

I think this is an interesting topic to discuss and would welcome others to input...

YankeeD, yes granted, but Oriole had done a lot of trenching, had artisanal evidence, drilled many holes, and received assay results so the Exploration Target was much closer to an 'Inferred' estimate - in my opinion anyway...

We will find out soon enough.

My thoughts on this are that the Exploration Target was in the 'Inferred' category.

The Q4 MRE will likely be 'Indicated' category for Mbe South and 'Inferred' for Mbe North.

The BoD has stated that Mbe South makes up c.60% of Mbe, therefore the Q4 MRE should warrant the BCM payment... if over 1moz !

HRY355, I agree with your sentiment but let's give them the benefit of the doubt until after the Investor Presentation.

For me, this is Martin's chance to act as the CEO. Show the shareholders and new potential investors the strategy and vision of Oriole.

I want to see:

1. The 3 year plan to realising maximum value in Oriole - I want to know where Martin thinks the ship is headed and how we wants to get there

2. A 100-day plan of what each person in the business is going to do to achieve short-term milestones

- Who is leading on the exploitation licence for Bibemi and when is it likely to happen, how are they mitigating risks etc.

- Who is leading on the Senegal JV and when is it likely to be agreed, what are the obstacles and how are they overcoming these etc.

- Who is leading on securing financing for the next 12-18 months and how. What are the options, who are they talking to, etc.

3. What are the plans for Mbe after the MRE. They have mentioned

4. How and when are they exploring the other CLP licences Pokor, Ndom, Tenekou and Niambaram? These can be extended next year for an additional 2 years so what will they do, and when. and do they need to raise money, and how??

I DON'T want Martin to merely talk about Mbe and how it could be a gamechanger open in all directions and at depth... the same rhetoric over and over. He needs to be the CEO, with vision, not the PR guy that just repeats what everyone already knows!

And I am putting my money where my mouth is, if Martin doesn't address the future, the vision, the strategy for getting there, I am selling my holding.

Current Bid / Ask is looking okay... Would be good to understand the strength of L2 ??

0.38 / 0.42

GG - there were going to be 5 more holes, they cancelled the fifth. So now only four.