how geopolitics support oil price14 Nov 2018 08:05
KSA has no interest in a lower oil price and will stop answering the phone when Trump calls. Bottom line- they know long term U.S. interests center around a strong Saudi Arabia to balance Iran's influence in the MEA, and will use that certainty to repair their balance sheet.
Russia is harder to forecast because of the political element’s influence, but on the balance, I think political goals will win the day. Putin would like to blunt U.S. influence in the MEA region and may use the price of oil to achieve this goal, even at the cost of some of their European sales. The Russians also have competing goals, maintaining their traditional European markets and buddying up to the Saudis. Trying to strike this balance will probably result in support for the oil price.
Given all of this, and in spite of the ill winds blowing currently, I don’t see oil prices falling off a cliff.
By David Messler for Oilprice.com
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Are-Not-Falling-Off-A-Cliff-Anytime-Soon.html