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There are 2 ways to view this. It’s an opportunity to let insiders / institutional folks load up before material news is released that should significantly lift the value. Or it’s bad news and you want to fill the coffers before the news is released and the stock collapses. I personally feel it’s a fair way to offer a discounted opportunity before positive news is released. If they do the raise at current value and then drop bad news….they will have a terrible time raising funds in the future. My guess is news is good and get in while it’s cheap. We should know soon enough.
Very disappointing call. Not 1 question from registered listeners. A real head scratcher. POQ has been on a promotional tour through London. Probably explains why we are trading lower.
I’ve said for years now that Origin has a vested interest in keeping the share price suppressed until they decide “when” or “if” to buy out FOG. Allowing this to run in the market only increases the leverage on the buyout price. This has been a very difficult investment to hold for the past 12 years. Nothing ever makes sense. The only thing that gives me comfort is the progress and pace of development in the past year in the area. I’m just hopeful a major sees enough in the next 6-12 months and approaches Origin to discuss a commercialization agreement. These discussions are likely ongoing and awaiting the results of drilling. Anyone expecting the share price to reflect true value while we await a buyout offer is going to be disappointed. Our current market cap is already a significant discount to our peers in the area. This can only be explained by manipulation. You have to believe in the end game and expectation FOGs holding is valued at a minimum of $1B. Origin just sold 10% of another investment to free up $2B in cash. Hopefully this is a precursor to a buyout or accelerated drilling program next year. I have speculated that the results of the wells next door will provide sufficient confirmation of commercialization and Origin will move to control the whole play, taking out FOG. Hopefully in the last 12 months of this very painful hold. GLTA.
To clarify for those who are new here. There are 2 subjects here that are being misinterpreted. #1 there is a liquidator who was handling the Sweetpea bankruptcy and they were in possession of around 40+m shares and have been slowly selling for the past 2ish years. Not sure how much they retain, but am sure they disposed of a large chunk with the increased demand. #2 Nicholas Mathas (SP?) was a major shareholder who owned over 50m shares and recently sold 10m. He could still be selling, or simply unloaded a portion to de-risk. If memory serves me correct he picked these shares up at around $0.05 so he’s taken his original capital off the table with this sale and holds 40m for the potential upside. I’ve been in this for 14 yrs and own over 1M shares. While disappointed this hasn’t held the gains of the week I’m not surprised. A lot of traders jumped on this and drove it up. MM’s are cooling it off and providing the liquidity for folks to take short term gains off the table. The story has never been more positive over the past 5 years and the news flow into the end of the year should support this moving much higher. GLTA
Perhaps another angle to consider on why Origin isn’t promoting this news is that they are working out terms to take over Falcon, and promoting it would not serve well in negotiations. I’ve speculated here for at least 3 years that Origin is going to be first mover to control 100% of this play so that they can then farm down to a major E&P. Taking out Falcon early could allow them to secure it for present value VS where we expect it to be in 12 months. I still don’t feel it will be for cash, due to their current balance sheet, but rather stock in a newco. That would provide long term holders the ability to cash out early or hang in for the longer ride to production. Nice to finally see things coming together and optimism return to this board. It’s been a long hard ride for the past 14 years. One of my accounts has FO in at $3.48. I was a buyer then, when this was going to $10! I’ve averaged down considerably but was a big buyer and accumulated a lot in the sub .40’s. Never thought we’d see .08 again and hope were on the same trend as we were in November 2016! Good luck to all and hopefully this is just the beginning of good things to come!
Derrick,
Kyalla 117 N2-1H ST2 - Production stopped due to potential downhole flow restriction, work ongoing and we should expect an update on how and when this restriction will be resolved. Low CO2 Liquid Hydrocarbons present.
Velkerri 76 S2-1 - Spudded 12 August 2021. We should expect an update once completed. Expect middle of this month.
Might want to check the batteries in your calculator. 8m shares x .17cdn = $1,360,000CDN. Agree a very small $ value in relation to the asset value, but not $13,000.
This could possibly be why we have such a small work program for 2021. Perhaps the risk of securing a rig to only have it sit idle was deemed too high a risk if the territory was likely to be locked down again. Hopefully this doesn’t happen as our wagon is very much hitched to the success of our neighbors this year.
Hey Poods - love your conviction! Hoping this goes big for us all!!
Would have been nice if Cenkos would have reiterated their valuation of FO from 2017 of $0.60 CDN rather than the simple “look through” 2x of our neighbour. Makes you wonder what value they bring to this relationship.
Don’t remember the details cause it was a long time ago but he picked them up when we were trading around .09 in 2017.
I personally feel the market has already fully valued the Kyalla as a failure. We’re trading where we were pre-Kyalla. Any positive news should get us back to .30 CDN. Negative is we are where we are. POQ was pretty confident on the December call they could get it to flow. Let’s hope he’s right!
The perfect storm for us and yet here we are at 2 year low…hope the picture becomes more clear soon. Would think an update on progress of clean up on the Kyalla would be reasonable.
Thanks for confirming. Much appreciated.
I have no issue with the deferral if that meant 2 years later we were trading significantly higher or bought out. That’s why I feel so strongly that something will be done prior to the payment deadline which I still believe is August this year unless someone can provide documentation to suggest otherwise.
Superspazz, I must have missed that update. Where and when was that communicated?
Newtofo,
I appreciate everyone has an extensive laundry list of reasons, the asset, share structure and management are the same, and we have had nothing but positive catalysts in the last year, and yet we trade below the level of July 2019….just weird. The acid test for me will be how the Overriding interest payment will be settled in August. If we do another raise at this level to pay for it, I will have lost complete confidence in leadership. Until then, while perplexed and frustrated by lack of communication I’ll wait, hoping there is a bigger plan. Wish you all an enjoyable summer.
Their market cap is still 2.5x of FOG. Makes no sense that we are lingering so long at this level.
We have a $200M+ capex commitment for drilling that was agreed to when the agreement with Origin was executed. There was also a reasonable timeline to completion that was unfortunately given up on the last amendment in return fir increased spend. I get all the delays that have been out of their control but to move slow now is completely ridiculous. That’s why I strongly feel something is going to happen sooner than later. Nothing adds up right now and while it’s easy to call the respective parties incompetent, I don’t believe that’s a reflection of what’s truly going on. We will know soon enough.
Newtofo - if there was a plan to expedite exploration with a detailed plan with committed dates, I’d be fine hanging in here for 2 more years. Unfortunately, after 12 years and no appreciation in my investment, I’ve lost patience and would be happy to take a net present value of a future valuation, assuming it’s reasonable. I’d also be very supportive of receiving shares in exchange for mine in a new co that would be run by an organization with the capital and expertise to aggressively develop the property. The present arrangement no longer works for me.