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The Extension highlights are as follows:
Allows Falcon to exercise its 30% share of the call option up to and including 31 August 2021.
Falcon to pay US$500,000 to the TOG Group for granting the Extension
The cost of exercising Falcon’s portion of the call option increases from US$4.5m to US$7.5m.
Correction - The overriding interest payment is due in August 2021 not July….so this may play out a little longer. If we here about another extension to the ORI…all bets are off.
Dprussky - your theory provides further support to mine. I think there was speculation that Origin was going to present a progress update a week back that didn’t occur….at least that I’m aware. I was actually happy that didn’t happen, as it lends further credibility to the possibility they are working to finalize a deal. The silence is deafening and our share price is at 2 year low, when things have never been brighter. Makes zero sense unless a deal is in the works.
I’m still of the opinion our stock is being intentionally suppressed to prevent any speculative trading and so that “any” deal will look good for our current stock price. Still feel it will be around $1.
We have the deferred overriding interest payment due in July (if memory serves me correctly). That’s another reason I feel a deal will be announced by the end of this month.
If it all plays out as suspected, the frustration caused by the lack of communication will all make sense. Fingers crossed we’re close to knowing the truth soon.
Thanks Dprussky- I can load it on both phone & desktop but the resolution is terrible. Not sure if your doing something to get a clear image from the details your sharing.
Dprussky - can you walk us through the steps you use to view? Are you using a mobile device or desktop? Thanks in advance.
Sinceday1 - Been here for 12+ years and holding over 1.5M shares. One of my accounts has an ACB of $3.48.....to give you an idea of what I thought the upside was 12 years ago! Lots has changed since but our resource has not....so still feel the price should be much higher. We are currently trading at a market cap of $98M CDN with a committed capex of $260M. Empire has proven much less to date, is raising capital to drill and has a market cap of $150M. We had our strategic investment advisor Cenkos put a value of $0.60CDN on our 2 TCF about 5 years ago as we were heading into the fracking moratorium (no pun intended). At that time we were trading around $0.40CDN and all thought that valuation was crazy town. And here we are, 6 years later, only a fraction of the committed capex spent, with liquids confirmed in the Kyalla and trading at $0.10CDN. Makes total sense right? When I started this I felt it had massive potential and felt a double from $3.48 was easy. 12 years later I’m hoping for something over $1 USD....hope that offers perspective. GLTA.
Newtofo - while I agree with everything you’re stating regarding proving up more resources via 3km horizontal fracs, why would this year be so conservative for activity if that was truly the plan? Origin committed the funds years ago, so why slow roll now? I don’t buy they need time to identify the most prospective zones. They’ve had years to figure this out. Sitting back to let others do the work around their permits seems wasteful in light of all the years of delays. If the stated work plan is what they actually intend to do this year, why not set dates for completion and get on with it? Something just doesn’t add up for me. While Origin may not buy FO outright, that doesn’t preclude a third party or 4th party being brought to the table to divide the pie and commitments.
As always time will tell. This is the first year in 6 that all headwinds are gone, wind is in our back and they go quiet on communication with a plan to move slow....just doesn’t make sense.
I’ve been saying this now for over a year that this is being packaged up to sell. The structure of the deal , and value given to us remains to be seen, but I honestly feel the silence and lack of definitive timelines are part of the strategy. Stating timelines would mean spending money and being accountable to the deadlines. I feel the announcement in March was done to buy time to complete the deal. I base this on Origins statement to farm down the play due to size and scope. I don’t think they can do that until they control the play, which can only be accomplished by taking control or working with FO on bringing on another partner. Sounds simple, but would be complex for a public utility company. With the NT government incentives in place and urgency to develop, we have to be close. Origin needs to move this into an arms length investment co. This may offer an explanation on why both parties are silent beyond the vague plans communicated. This is likely due to an NDA. I don’t think our big investors would tolerate a complete lack of progress this year. I feel we hear something by end of June. That would give them 6 months to come to terms after the Kyalla. This is the only thing that makes sense to me. I don’t feel this is a matter of incompetence on either party. I still feel our stock value is being intentionally suppressed. We’re not even trading at the value of cash committed for drilling. Meanwhile other players with less prospective acreage are raising capital so there is interest in the Beetaloo. Hang in there. All my opinion. GLTA.
Really makes you wonder why they are keeping things so quiet and largely wasting another year in light of the exploration incentives from the NT government. All I can hope for is that there is a reason and we will all know soon enough.
Longknife - Nothing announced.
Longknife - No news or change in sentiment for MVMD. News from FDA is delayed and the price is drifting lower.
Darnitagain - thanks for the detailed explanation. Appreciate the insight. Just seems like an unusually high volume of short trades by volume compared with other stocks I follow.
If you look at the US short trade data for the past 30 days, you’ll see over 50% of the daily volume was traded short. For a company with only $0.09 to fall seems like a stupid trade....unless you’re plan is to keep a lid on this. As I’ve stated many times now, this is being suppressed intentionally. Yesterday there was a block of over 1m shares on the ask @ .115....again, supports the theory of keeping this off the radar. The only question is why? Today’s spike could be short covering....
Poods - you are certainly a man of conviction! I honestly don’t understand it from what I see and the frustration you have personally shared about our leadership. There are so many other small cap stocks with exceptional leadership and near term catalysts to see much better return. While I have considered buying more to bring my average cost down, I’m not going to throw good money at a possible bad decision. I sincerely hope your conviction in this play works out for you and us all.
Meant new vertical.....
Newtofo - We’re all in the same boat and am hopeful to see our share price reflective of the value we all believe is there. I’m happy with the new horizontal but can’t understand why we can’t drill and frac 1 well in a year. The other stuff should take a month tops to complete. I’m happy they are working on all three areas but feel there has been sufficient time to figure out where the most prospective targets are. Lots of time to execute, review and continue. I just feel they are moving way too slow and as such feel there is another plan in play. Appreciate your contribution to this board. GLTA
Newtofo - I respectfully disagree. Being about 4 years behind in the drilling program I’d expect a lot more activity from Origin this year if your thesis were true. Drilling 1 horizontal and flow testing 2 is a joke especially in light of the support from the NT government. I personally feel Origin is over their heads on this project and a pivot to proving resource up while preserving capital to package a farm down to a major seems most likely to me. Otherwise we should be seeing a minimum of a couple of 3km fracs + a new well and frac this year. They’ve had sufficient time to plan. It’s time to execute, and they are doing the absolute minimum. This is all my humble opinion and we’ll only know in time who’s right. I’m hoping this is over this year.
Otd2000 - absolutely. Minimal spend to potentially increase value of buyout. Origin has commented on a farm out. This plays well into that strategy.
As part of the market update, how hard would it have been to share project timelines even if they were generous? Cause they don’t want to provide anything beyond the minimal required as it may draw attention. There is absolutely no interest in promoting the property to bring attention to the project and potential, which in turn would put upward pressure on the SP. This is why I feel so strongly that this is being run like a private company rather than publicly traded. Again the only thing that lets me sleep at night with the very large position I hold is that the major shareholders seem content. I assure you they would not be if there wasn’t more going on behind closed doors. The moratorium and COVID caused delays that were beyond anyone’s control. So long as we don’t have another shutdown this year, I’d expect things will move quickly to get this wrapped.
Poods - you have stated if there was a seller who was in need of liquidating a position, efforts could be made by the CEO to clear it. We thought it was the Sweetpea insolvency. That was cleared and yet here we are. Low volume....bids hit daily to hold it down. The reason we are here is that it is part of a bigger plan....plain and simple.