The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
There may well be facts involved but you provide no context. Yes there are multiple large scale projects in Saudi but as usual you failed to answer a reasonable question because the obvious answer doesn't suit. You have specifically mentioned the exclusivity of AFC's deal with Tamgo but that exclusivity means that we can't sell to anyone else I believe? What it doesn't mean is that we are the only game in town.
Clearly it is going to take something spectacular in terms of revenue and profit generation to persuade the market to accord value to the company. And the forecast revenue numbers for the next couple of years can't in any way be described as spectacular. There's a number of factors there:
Risk
Track Record
General market malaise around small caps, particularly AIM
if I was Adam Bond I'd be casting around for PE companies to take the firm private and allow him, the management team and possibly ABB to maintain an equity interest. That may not be palatable for those of us who have retained any sort of faith and financial commitment but the company is getting very little value from its public listing and lots of obligations.
No idea what it would take per share. It's complicated by there being few blocks of shareholdings for which a commitment to a takeout price could be sought but I'd guess it could be achieved at significantly less than the price it did reach three years ago.
If that happens, Daz, then great. Funding to fulfil actual orders that generate cash and profits isn't a problem with me. It might even be worth some dilution, although if it was on the table I'd be taking up new shares at a discount
Ramping can be blatant or more subtle but in my book:
Being consistently positive regardless of circumstances
Constantly shouting down any opinion, no matter how rational and cogently put, that includes another point of view
Conveniently ignoring any point which points out factual errors in posts
Failing to countenance any criticism whatsoever
Failing to acknowledge when any points the person makes are demonstrably wrong
Counts as ramping
There most certainly will not be a huge order announced at the event. That would clearly be a price sensitive announcement and the logistics of making that available across the market are impossible. Get real.
Clearly this morning's announcement is good news. But is it big news? Too early to tell for sure so before that can be answered conclusively there are questions to be resolved. Such as:
1. We are hoping for exponential growth across several regions. if that is to be the case how does that square with this arrangement being adequate to cope with foreseeable demand over the next five years? Clearly the company has to make internal forecasts and budgets but if it genuinely can look five years ahead that does sound a little limiting.
2. If growth does exceed that forecast, can production be further scaled with Illuming or another partner?
3. What is Illuming's international network? There isn't much mention of it that I can see on their website so does it extend to manufacture in multiple locations? Can it sub-contract via this network? etc.
4. The announcement gives no indication of scale of manufacture. Entirely possible that I've missed what this five year foreseeability involves but it's clearly crucial in establishing the potential for AFC's growth.
What I'd really like to see (but won't) is a list of attendees at the Capital Markets Event. It's clear to all that investment in small cap, and particularly AIM, has proved to be very unattractive for institutional investors for a number of years now. That is going to be a tough trend to buck, particularly for any companies that retain any degree of speculative activity, and until AFC can turn a regular, material and growing profit it retains that description.
Styfulgroeth? Anyone want to have a guess?