RE: Another day, another large late trade14 Jun 2022 13:34
Hopefully better than the share price; but it's complex in its structure and not very transparent so one imagines it ought to be doing well, but it's difficult to be sure just how well. They expect increased production this year but also kicked the can down the road to H2 and commissioning of the kiln for production to be in line with those expectations, so there's still some uncertainty around that. They failed to generate positive cash flow in Q1 but without full details of the non operating costs and planned capex it's a bit of an unknown as to whether that will change for Q2 and beyond. If they do generate positive cash flow it's unclear how that will be used. So there's a sense that it's doing ok but it's hard to quantify due to a lack of certainty and clarity, symptoms of complex corporate arrangements and poor and irregular communications.
I was looking at a company yesterday, another commodity producer, who update their investor presentations almost monthly. In there they examine a range of product prices and model the impact of those on operating profit and fcf. They talk in detail about capex plans, loan repayments and plans for spending excess cash on divis/buy backs, under each of the product pricing scenarios. It's all very clear and uncomplicated, as it should be.
Perhaps similar up to date analysis is published by BMN, but it's not something I've managed to stumble across and really, it should be right there in your face. The most recent investor presentation on their site is from sep last year, 9 months ag, effectively an eon in terms of the geo-political and economic landscape. It just leaves you with a sense that they might be trying to hide something; I'm sure that's not the case but they leave far too much room for doubt and this is what is being reflected in the sp.