Member Info for offmessage

"Trading update was juts a few days ago..."
I'm suprised that wasn't released as an RNS:
RECORD ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION
AND SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN NET SENIOR DEBT

"Just shows the end of the day playing with prices through a UT, can be safely ignored."
I'd be more inclined to ignore the competely unprompted 10% rise on low volume that preceded it. I guess we'll see tomorrow, if it opens 10% up then you'd be right to ignore the UT.

"Back down tomorrow then?"
You don't have to wait that long, it's already back down on the end of day UT.

"Anyone give me a brief round-up?"
The company reiterated some old news, everyone got excited, the sp went up, fomo kicked in and the sp went up some more. It will likely fall back tomorrow.

"Oh and jealous, don't forget jealous"

Jealous of what? You assume far too much.

Beans on toast? You were lucky...

ok boomer

The only reference I've seen is on the news tab of this site and is just a one liner (Berenberg cuts Pan African resources price target to 30 (31) pence - 'buy'):
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/PAF/london-broker-ratings-jpmorgan-downgrades-admiral-and-direct-line-dhk9893f0p7pj9n.html

It's a bit odd because just a couple of weeks ago Berenberg increased their target from 28p to 33p so it doesn't really make sense.
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/PAF/berenberg-slightly-raises-target-price-on-pan-african-resources-rc3hmqsdmlv8i1p.html

I think it just means they're keeping an eye on something that might contravene their thesis and negatively impact their sp target. In this case it's BP's upcoming results.

Looks like there was a target price cut from Berenberg that might have caused some of today's drop. They cut their target from 31p to 30p. I've bought some more.

Porky: "@sang - ...You are a Troll and need stopping
You are distracting from serious discussion about the stock"

Pah! Sang and others have been calling this correctly for months and you've tried to shut them up, called them trolls and shorters and continued to ramp this dog despite all the evidence that the sp and company was hitting the buffers. You're delusional and incapable of serious discussion, you should be ashamed.

"Am well aware that our resident clowns..."

You don't see the irony of calling other people clowns while you have continued to hold a share that has devalued to the point where your only hope is dreaming that it's now so worthless that somebody buys the company. If you want a clown, look in the mirror.

"Offmessage did it occur to you that I may be far more interested in what the company is doing to grow the company than pure speculation about the share price?"

So you joined a discussion speculating about shareprice to tell us you're not interested in speculating about the shareprice. You could just ignore it instead of feeling the need to jump in and add context to every comment you judge as not being positive.

Pdub, I think this is the first time in all your replies that you've actually engaged with the topic of why the sp is suffering:
"The wider market may give lip service to understanding that but.... it can’t be bothered to look deeply into what the company is doing, and it is a complex story."
You could have just said that initially.

Don't kid yourself, pdub, your 'rational' argument ignores the reality of the market, check your logic.

"To say that at present output from Kiln 3 is a little uncertain is rather stating the ble*ding obvious"

Indeed, so I don't understand why you seem to be struggling with it. It's not scaremongering, you're being way too defensive, it's an attempt to understand why market sentiment is at rock bottom and the sp is hitting multi-year lows. Is it uncertainty about production, unclear financial analysis, both or something else? That's not being negative, it's trying to understand why the market hasn't bought into the story and what catalysts might be needed to change it.

"Offmessage I am not trying to be difficult here but I really don’t understand some of your points.

“… the uncertainty that still remains around meeting higher production targets …”"

I mean the Q1 run rate undershoots production guidance for the year - 3888mtv at current rate compared to guidance of 4200mtv. I understand that rates are expected to increase with the commissioning of kiln 3, but until there is confirmation that has happened then there will obviously be a degree of uncertainty associated with it. That's not a criticism of the company, but there's obviously going to be some uncertainty until those higher rates are actually achieved and maybe we'll see better sentiment when they are. Q2 update should confirm kiln 3 progress but I guess we won't see any numbers until Q3.

"The figures below show Vametco targetting 5400mtv by end of 2022"

Those are the production rates hoped to be achieved by year end, not the expected production volumes for the year. Group production guidance is for 4200mtv in 2022, compared to 3592mtv in 2021. Q1 2022 production was 972mtv (+1% compared to Q4 2021) so sustaining that would produce 3888 mtv for the year and undershoot expectations. However, they've advised production rates are expected to increase in H2 with the commissioning of kiln 3, to bring full year production in line with guidance of 4200 - 4400mtv.

"smart move by the BoD doing the monthly payments as it does, or should on paper, reduce volatility."

And, as stated by the BoD, it also allows holders to accumulate shares through divi reinvestment while the share price is at these cheap levels.

Pdub - "I must congratulate you offmessage for managing to make such a positive start to 2022 for BMN sound so negative."

That was my upbeat assessment ;-)
I acknowledge the points you make, about increased production, lower costs and higher product prices. These are the things that make me feel that the business is probably doing ok. What I was lamenting was the uncertainty that still remains around meeting higher production targets and moreso the lack of detail provided by the company on expected operating profit, none opex, capex plans, any future funding requirements and possible fcf and its intended use. Given your undoubted in-depth knowledge of the company, your comments: 'is likely to have generated significant profit' and 'group revenue and profit should be very strong' serve to illustrate the dearth of any real detail in this regard. I'm not intending to be negative, I agree that progress is being made, but I am uncomfortable with the lack of clarity provided by the company around financial planning and analysis and I believe this could be a factor in the sp languishing where it is.