Member Info for OfficerFigby

Broadford, yes of course your numbers are right,

However - where I struggle is with your claim that the company is not self financing as it has stated over and over. Indeed, if it were not why would they initiate a buy back for such a large sum. There was no benefit. It was not a drastic measure of a desperate company as some would like to paint the story. In fact, in their resolutions it was spelled out as only done if needed timely and if they thought appropriate.

I can't thnk this team wouldl shoot down their own finances in this way by spaffing the money away. I mean I've seen one company do such a thing on AIM and subsequently go bust but I can't believe GKP would do it. Especially as we have essentially (IMO) a causcious bean counter in charge. Teh moeny spent this year on Dividends and Buy back coudl have bought soem serious assets elsewhere. Yet they choose to spend it on GKP shares and divi's..

The drill holes and dont report flow rates for months. They do or dont' appoint CFO's.
The list of bizarre behaoviours go on.

TinTin, I agree with the your calcs there.
The only slght point of query is the drop on VAS field post VAS 10 in last quarter.
831 Q3 2019
989 1H 2019
960 Q2 2019
1,023 Q1 2019
789 Q4 2018 (VAS-10 added twards the end).

"In March 2016, as part of the Group's strategy to focus on its core assets, the Group relinquished the Sheikh Adi block and terminated the Sheikh Adi PSC. Under the terms of the Sheikh Adi Relinquishment, the Group relinquished to the KRG its right to drill, explore, and export oil and gas from the Sheikh Adi block. Both the KRG and the Group relieved each other from any claims and obligations they may have against the other under the PSC, with the exception of $10.0 million relating to reduced PSC bonuses due on the declaration of commerciality. This will be offset against the past costs associated with the Shaikan Government Participation Option."

NB given away because GKP could afford to meet development obligations as per PSC. So had to pay PSC termination fees.

Whether or not could pay the development costs because non payment by KRG - that's another matter!

Sorry Kroky,
my error. Should have been $15m capex for the MX-119, the fracking and part prepayment SV54. That was at the interims cash of $62m down from $67m.
Possibly more Capex now as $62m down to $60m - best of SV-54 prepay?

The drop in flow rate is ~300-400bopd since new year
3,889 Q3 2019
4,073 Q2 2019
4,306 Q1 2019
4,139 Q4 2018

but replenished by MX-119 1070. No idea how much time MX-120 been off but flow from that obviously aiming for more post frack/work-over.

Umair @u_mamsa
Oct 10

Spoke to the Group FD about this after interim results were out. Due to payment of capex of c.$15m for MX-119 well, the hydraulic fracturing of 120 and prepayment of part of SV-54 drilling costs

So $15m MX-119, fracking ~$1-2m and |~$5m SV-54?

Numbers add up lie that.

Hey MikeyT21 -thought you were selling in Summer. What you think of this trade?

16-Sep-19
16:54:04
230.4361
745,778
Sell*
233.50
234.50
2m
O
Ordinary

Absolutely massive sell!

Of course I was quoting before tax! :-).

NB target is 110k.

You've made your point: either the company can deliver and get agreement on gas handling OR they are bull shitting and playing for those bonuses they are about to award themselves.

...For doing precisely one work-over... couple of fancy plans and a presentation.

Somehow they've convinced themselves them have delivered all KPI's and are no doubt going to max bonus...
Whilst what they failed to do is quite a long list

@110000bopd Brent $70, and current PSC I make it $66.1m /month

YEs v poor interms of what the average SH on here and elsewhere was looking for....
Maybe appeals to pension managers etc.

Nothing new at all bar the Divi

So what thet done in a year.... Well one work over and a decided on a divi policy.

No doubt they'll want there bonuses on the back of such stellar performances!

That said GroundControl - in the GKP presentations this year capital have been reported as holding a rounded up larger %-age.

https://www.gulfkeystone.com/investor-centre/shareholder-analysis

GroundControl may have the answer!

Hey Mikey,
One last thing to speculate on before main event.

Capital gone from 8.67%(Morning Star 28th Fe 2019)) to 6.45% (GKP website today).

One wonders why!

Cheers Mikey (as usual but often not stated),

My company does capital market days and it's. big deal. In fact there was a (for us) big £27-40 SP swing as a result of theist one. So here's hoping!

GKP did announce results day previously - it was hidden in the early year operational updates. the fact that it wasn't here this year lead to some interesting speculation elsewhere. But I do get it, vastly greater exposure more pressure to tell market something good.

I mean wasn't the last one attended by analysts and broadcast. The recording is available on website..?

Mikey,
wasn't last years similar with the webcast?

Are you sure something different?

I wonder if GKp will see the benefit yet. As their sales agreement is (Brent -$22) per barrel, where the $22 included transportation costs. Previous 'just oil' discounts have been around $14.5-16 discount.
I wonder if that sales agreement is still valid untill it runs out and they losing the extra....

Also the change to pipeline should have cut trasportation costs/losses significantly.

I wonder why they havent' bothered to RNS anything!

Something on the lines of recent GENL RNS's explaining that they still make £100m cash year at Brent price of $x and 30,000 production.

seems like CBA all the time here!

triple doh. I've kept posting wrong link.

poster of well log is actually here.

https://geology.cr.usgs.gov/energy/Hedberg_Poster-Panel1.pdf

finish now!

messed up links!

This article is the flow rate of the well at lower depth 3500cf/day
http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/24872661.shtml
This poster on RHS show the entire well and what seen at every level. It's clear lower level 14,000ft was gas
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180911/pdf/43y6ttrc4533yn.pdf

I agree every just said.

Just not 625bopd

And the said well actually in 1972. showed a flow much lower at 14,000ft that was actually gas

This article is the flow rate of the well at lower depth 3500cf/day
http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/24872661.shtml
This poster on RHS show the entire well and what seen at every level. It's clear lower level 14,000ft was gas
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180911/pdf/43y6ttrc4533yn.pdf

My interest was only the if 625bopd was oil and in Seabee, then Winx would be practically guaranteed. It didn't and it aint/

To try to quantify what the difference is between Winx and Horseshoe I differ to DavidBlack Advfn:
'Winx prospect - delineated on Nanuq 3D
seismic with similar amplitude signature to that
seen at Horseshoe 1/1A – and only 4 miles
East

Also its not the same, the Winx sits on a slop falling to the east from where the source oil is coming from. Better or worse? We don't know yet but its not identical."

The actual risk and current drop in SP is partially explained a little bit the history of RMP and the management like for a 'risky play'.

The actual risk also partially explains a lot of the selling of places and the company advisor Tony King into the drilling.
See here for Tony Kings (underduaghters name) sales before placing, placing update and sales direct after placing.
http://redemperorresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Form605NoticeOfCeasingToBeASubstantialHolderSuzannaKing04Feb19.pdf

See here if you don't know who he is:
http://redemperorresources.com/board-and-management/

No Doubt the sellers will be let in again, in another placing post drill some level higher than now obviously!