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I wonder if GKp will see the benefit yet. As their sales agreement is (Brent -$22) per barrel, where the $22 included transportation costs. Previous 'just oil' discounts have been around $14.5-16 discount.
I wonder if that sales agreement is still valid untill it runs out and they losing the extra....
Also the change to pipeline should have cut trasportation costs/losses significantly.
I wonder why they havent' bothered to RNS anything!
Something on the lines of recent GENL RNS's explaining that they still make £100m cash year at Brent price of $x and 30,000 production.
seems like CBA all the time here!
triple doh. I've kept posting wrong link.
poster of well log is actually here.
https://geology.cr.usgs.gov/energy/Hedberg_Poster-Panel1.pdf
finish now!
messed up links!
This article is the flow rate of the well at lower depth 3500cf/day
http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/24872661.shtml
This poster on RHS show the entire well and what seen at every level. It's clear lower level 14,000ft was gas
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180911/pdf/43y6ttrc4533yn.pdf
I agree every just said.
Just not 625bopd
And the said well actually in 1972. showed a flow much lower at 14,000ft that was actually gas
This article is the flow rate of the well at lower depth 3500cf/day
http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/24872661.shtml
This poster on RHS show the entire well and what seen at every level. It's clear lower level 14,000ft was gas
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180911/pdf/43y6ttrc4533yn.pdf
My interest was only the if 625bopd was oil and in Seabee, then Winx would be practically guaranteed. It didn't and it aint/
To try to quantify what the difference is between Winx and Horseshoe I differ to DavidBlack Advfn:
'Winx prospect - delineated on Nanuq 3D
seismic with similar amplitude signature to that
seen at Horseshoe 1/1A – and only 4 miles
East
Also its not the same, the Winx sits on a slop falling to the east from where the source oil is coming from. Better or worse? We don't know yet but its not identical."
The actual risk and current drop in SP is partially explained a little bit the history of RMP and the management like for a 'risky play'.
The actual risk also partially explains a lot of the selling of places and the company advisor Tony King into the drilling.
See here for Tony Kings (underduaghters name) sales before placing, placing update and sales direct after placing.
http://redemperorresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Form605NoticeOfCeasingToBeASubstantialHolderSuzannaKing04Feb19.pdf
See here if you don't know who he is:
http://redemperorresources.com/board-and-management/
No Doubt the sellers will be let in again, in another placing post drill some level higher than now obviously!
No of course not. That is all real and this is a good well with a potential massive upside.
Some well was drilled in 1972 and showed some oil shows 1 mile away. Thats all ALL the companies involved have said about it.
If there was 625bopd from a 1 mile away well it would be massively significant and have removed even more risk from this drill. And the companies involved here would be shouting it form the roof tops.
Also they wouldn't have the acreage. As it would have bought up 2014. And been producing already at sweet spot.
Do you get it?
"Itkillik on our acreage 1-2 miles north of Wink encountered oil and flowed 625 bopd. Was not drilled in the sweet spot without 3D back in 1972."
Actually that flow rate is kind of a made up Twitter myth!
Oil shows in Seebee were seen in the drill log at the Seebee level 3000-4000m
And a gas flows low down 3500cf/day, at 14,510 and 14,726 feet. Much lower than Winx well TD 8000ft odd (Torok anyway)
Some high school twitter chaps have calculated the gas flow as if it was liquid to equate to 625 bopd - (it's actually 1000 times less! in BOEPD). And then taken the flow at 14,000ft and said it was a flow in SeeBee/Nanushuk sands depths
Chris Oil Also latched on to the myth. These kind of non-truths stay longer on Twi(a)tier sphere. Due to no real debate and just block anyone says different.
You can work it out for yourself:
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180911/pdf/43y6ttrc4533yn.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180911/pdf/43y6ttrc4533yn.pdf
Go to the RMP website looks at the ASX news from earlier.
You see the trading of Miss King, not sure of relation (daughter?) to Tony King (RMP corporate advisor - also something like co-founder).
http://redemperorresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Form605NoticeOfCeasingToBeASubstantialHolderSuzannaKing04Feb19.pdf
2nd page of document you see all Miss Kings trades from 26th June 2018 till now. Buy/Sell.
Interestingly plenty of sells on 14/01/2019
followed by uptake of placement 15/01/2019 and sells post.
I just wonder how these people get away with it really.
Tony King I mean (not his daughter - BTW he signs the disclosure).
Clearly trades the arse of his RMP shares. And doesn't have to declare anything by RNS.
Interested to know the trades just prior to 25 Jun 2018 also!
(no intention to de-ramp - hopefully the quality of the project leading to asset with sort this one out).
Hey, MikeyT21, glad you well.
go easy on yourself dude.
Just wondering what you make of lack of CPR/FDP/2nd Amendment...
After you have stated you're looking to sell into that news..
Latest RNS was a considerable back track from any plan (timetable) to release (change to IF! such news, after 2 years of promising.
Very Strange.
What the new strategy?
01-Feb-19 17:09:16 46.90 110,000 46.0047.80. 51.59k O
01-Feb-19 15:28:51 47.14 50,000B 45.6047.80. 23.57k O
I like both these!
Derisking is done a few days before spud.
Or a few days after.
Gutted not the 5p, but relief I’m out and happy :) be lucky all!!
6p next week! :-).
MikeyT21,
Cheers for more info.explanations.
Just to clarify the 40% (actually 0.4x0.9) R factor for contracts. Is currently the amount of Capex repayment coming to GKP.
But a second amendment is need to somehow increase that amount so that the Capex can actually be paid in full.
I have guessed that GKP could be offered something along the lines of the new GENL r-factor which is a % of the total field revenue for a period to cover the back Capex.
Also did you notice that the price of oil and production written in the new presentation doesn't match with how much GKP got paid reported on same slide (aligning the months as done in slide 5 and using the PSC terms)? Seems like a >$22 Brent reduction or similar being applied.
Wiseman: Not so sure the sales agreement has expired yet.
Agreement was signed Jan 2018 to cover 1st Oct 2017 to 31st Dec 2018. So most probably valid until KRG pays for Dec 2018 oil, in March 2019.
£5.50 (+current cash).
Not saying this is THE VALUATION.
This is first indication that price of reserves (I've seen) in Kurdistan has gone up. Since DNO day light robbery offer.
Price is apparently more than BB would pay LOL!
Who knows what Chinese would pay potential more than £3.42/bbl.
If you want to do 110kx365x20y = 800m bbls.
800x3.42 = £12.50.
If new PSC takes us up to 800m bbls net then same thing.
Sorry should be $10.7m loans.
But obviously not like they'll get paid!
And obviously b4 new CPR... x2? (ghost of Oilman knows how much).
Shamaran sale:
Isn't it:
$63m-$10.3m /2x7.7mmbls$3.42/barrel P2
Therefore GKP 350M x 3.42. = $1.197bln. = £0.95bln
= £4.3 share.(please correct me!).
Looks like less tight than the Scots man! ;-).
HI Topper,
So you accept that:
MOL WI is 12MMBOE which is 20% of Shaikan
And that MOL WI production is 3MBOEPD which is 20% of Shaikan.
On same slide is state production is 32MBOE
I wonder have you been in Gulf long enough to see companies own presentations.
Graphs don't look so different. Possibly MOL takes the graphs from GKP - the operator.
https://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/119580/gulf-keystone-petroleum-pareto-12-sept-18.pdf
the Shaikan part of MOL presentation is so full of errors..
It is possibly better to go off the GKP september 2018 presentation.
I can't see anyhting new in it really. You can grab at self funding or value production. But in Slide 45 they can get their working interest or theri net entitlement production right!
Yes, but the same Kurds not paying were origin of need for restructure!
Hey Mikey (and all),
Is it not fair to see the drop in GKP SP as being purely related to oil price drop?
With the operating costs $14.1m as todays price oil say Brent $62 GKP with their PSC. With say 30,000 x30month production. GKP will receive ~$14.5m.
So at $62 barrel GKP is close to £0.5m profit/Month - caveat at 30,000 barrels.
at $58 barrel GKP is loss making $0.2m
It's rather misleading to them to quote $3/barrel lifting costs (3x30x30000)= $2.7m.
Hopefully the pipeline connections are cutting the $22 deduction on a barrel say $1-2 trucking costs?
Mikeky!,
How on earth could they get away without telling market that the production was already up to 40k bopd? Surely that is material change and even more was until recently a key step in the FDP. (AKA a return to 40,000bopd)
No wait I'll my own ouija board out!
By working out the daily and monthly Production figures we will know when GKP reached the 40,000bpd, which in turn will give us some idea of were GKP are up to spending wise and operational wise
IMO we will find out that GKP reached its 40,000bpd in early November