Member Info for Odysseus07

elrico says he gave it for free but when i tried the link i was behind a registration/pay wall. And then i moved on, as like most others here, i have other things to do/must do :)

Hi Dire... i didnt want to register/pay for the access. I hope it was positive and valuable? And i completely get why elrico would put it behind registration/pay wall. That is his value exchange and completely fair enugh.

madabout... can you just tell me 1. how have i been odious? Havent called anyone that or been as personal as you 2. Uniformed? Can you explain why you say that?

Just because i say SA has been in charge of a failed launch, missed his sales numbers by a "material" amount (looking like more than 50%). These are all just facts. And elrico is not subjective, he has conflicts of interest - his relationship with SA, his own paid for website, etc etc

How is the above odious? Factual. the initial launch failed due to bad planning and extremely poor hardly any implementation and now its not obvious that the drastic things needs to make things better are really being done. Hiring 10 part time influencers?

My fear is that a launch in consumer world, needs high investment, cut-through positioning and branding, heavy marketing. i dont think the company has that sort of mindset or experience. I think the best thing would be for it to be bought by a true believer in axisbiotix who will brand and market and sell it and scale it up.

SBTX come across a little like a research company who may have found a 3/4 decent product but are now unable to maximise the opportunity. And SA either cant or doesn't agree with this or cant change the company culture to get this required quantum leap increase in the required marketing/positioning/advertising spend

Explain to me how these views are odious or uninformed compared to your post or elrico who filters anyone who criticises SA or SBTX..... bizarre

erm oleric.... that post about the RNS is odd. Now im no fan of elrico or belgrano. They obviously have conflicts of interest and are not purely objective sources. SBTX has been a very amateurish and bodged launch. Surprising that we keep getting told just how experienced SA is.... well.... ok, why did he fail so badly? And stop with the this was meant to be B2B not B2C... yes maybe 3 years ago when SP was 5-10p.... not for the last > 2 years in their business plan.

BUT.... what else will effect SP outside of commercial or operational? The SP fell below 20p because its a small aim stock, with high inflation and risk of recession all non profitable businesses are getting hit. AND with the latest revenue figures from march, this stock has a super high PE of >200....

Given the shambolic failed launch no wonder the market thinks "lol really, you gonna correct all this within a year and meet those growth expectations". They wont. And they only have a team of 7.... so at best the SP will be 30 by end of 2022 and will take years (unfortunately) to reach 50p... maybe end of 2023/2024. Then i will probably sell or see how the company is doing then.

Those are my thoughts. Oleric, agree with you about elrico and belgrano.... Delphic advice at best (ie never anything specific, always read into it waht you want and allows them to come back and say @no, i never said that'.......but that is too conspiratorial from you

PS we all know when the share price was 70p, elrico was not saying to sell (would never be so specific) and he was saying this is just the start, still get aboard. He was. he knows it, we know it.

Am i right?
1. we have heard no more results from the 2d seismic analysis? No more results on the shallow helium?
2. No further news on any rig? or any starting drill dates?

This is making me v v nervous.... they must have the results from the seismic scans now? The last update on rig was march i think?

This must mean there are delays/issues no? and every week we hear nothing the risk of drilling next year must be an option? That will get the SP back to 5p.

Thoughts from others? are others not feeling this?

I have to say, well done to the company on that RNS. I have posted a few times here and was getting really concerned. as optibiotix has dropped a lot as well (lots of cross company interest) and that has seen reductions over last 5/6 years.

This RNS is a really good response. I was getting concerned that my worse case scenario of 5p based on PE of 40 or so was going to happen....

I think it will be a long road from here but hoping we get back to 50p by end of 2023. I think that is the best case.... with the impending recession and so all high risk stocks like these (with little revenue, no profits) likely to get hammered... combined with the high inflation pushing these high risk stocks down.

This RNS is one bit pf good news. and sounds like this company of 7 people have taken on board the mistakes.... so hopefully the long climb back up will begin.....

sorry, meant pro-rata revenue of £88k.... sorry. Getting late and tired. So only pro-rata missed target by 93%. Not 95%. Apologies.

oh and one more fact. elrico and others keep on saying we dont know what "material missed" the revenue target means. Yes we do. Its in the latest presentation from March. So that isnt completely true what they saying.

So, revenue target was 1.2 million by june. Latest revenue figures pre month are £11k. So from Nov to June (8 months) pro-rata that is a revenue of £66k. vs i remind you 1.2million. yep, that would be my definition of material!

That is missing your own target... (YOUR OWN!!! NOT THE MARKETS) by 95%. Wow. WOW!!!!

Now, people are going to say - but that is only based on two months and revenue will have increased per month since then. Especially you know, like we have a marketing plan and spend now (you couldnt make it up..... why have such a high target but no marketing plan or spend - strategic genius!). But all i can say is that the revenue per month will have to have been rocket fuelled since January to miss the 1.2million target by even less than 50%. Which is an abysmal performance.

And yes, most CEOs, their job would be under threat with that level of performance and consequential share price falling off a cliff. The market is often rationale and now, from analysing the numbers, we can all see why the share price has collapsed.

depressingly beinthelead, you are right. Im now down on an investment (in at at average 24p). And i know i should sell (and should have sold at 60-75p as elrico said in his recent post). But strange ... at the time he wasnt saying that. he was saying this is just the beginning. Now, thats fine. Not his fault i didnt sell. But dont then come on and say "hey guys, 70% of aim companies retrace after a spike". You should have said "i believe in this company, just the beginning, i wont be sleeling, but bear in mind, 70% of aim companies do retrace after a spike". But you didnt as he has a conflict of interest with the company and an informal relationship with SA. But then to come on here and day that afterwards (after his very positive posts at 50-75p) is insulting.

Now, i know rationally i should sell, but I just cant at 21p.

But beinthelead thanks for the non-emotional response

From the last reporting company update:
1. Revenue of 11k per month
2. 500 boxes of Axisbiotix sold per month
3. profit of 6.5k per month (60% margin)

So thats the latest sales figures of the company. I will leave it to other people if revenue per month (currently) of 11k (£132k per year) - of course assuming sales dont increase justifies a current market cap of approximately 38 million (on share price of 21/22p). Thats a PE ratio of over 272 (currently). So.... lets hope that growth is stratospeheric!!!! ;). Otherwise, even with a PE ratio of 40.... we are looking at a sahre price of about 5p.... ouch!

But.. as people will say, this is still very early, a mere 8 months from a (very very soft launch). I assume sales will go up (cant go much slower) - especially now that we have a marketing plan being formed (would have been good to have that before launch) and now limited marketing spend (again would have been good prior to launch) and of course 10 (yes, 10!!!!) digital influencers for all UK and Ireland and USA. Those influencers will be busy! ;)

So, to me, will be several years before we get back to 75p....... maybe. Other thoughts / analysis welcome. But these are the latest figures people.

erm Toyin

answers : 1. Because all products need marketing spend in the peri-launch phase - products dont sell themsleves, especially in the competitive consumer phase

2. He is banking on a belated marketing spend correcting and improving the dismal sales that "materially" missed target. Before the results people on this board were saying "wait until first results" and "we are hearing great things on sales". Well no, sales and launch failed - at least initlally

3. Why believe not working? erm.... because sales were low (and expect june figures to be low) and share price down nearly 10% just today..... and down nearly 80% since peak...

So tell me, does the above make you think "yes, the initial launch has been great and the company must be happy". I hope not. Stuart and his management must be bitterly disapointed and must be doing some emergency "relaunch" activities......

But Toyin that isnt true. The commercial plan is not on course - it will "materially miss" the sales expectations. And apparently we have 10 influencers. Hmm ok. And if there was a marketing plan, what was it? There wasnt any. Every product needs a marketing and sales plan / story. So i do think all of that were mistakes. But im not selling now at a low point, i will sell when the SP increases, probably towards end of 2023, after a further dip, probably, when the sales figures update for the end of june also disappoint

To elrico and the other guy who had good access to the MD? Seem to go quiet when things dont turn out as they suggested. Im sticking at now 23.5p (still slight profit) as thinking it cant go much lower...... the market cap is now, what, £50million? Hoping that is a decent price and less downside risk/more upside benefit. But will be a long and slow process.

Will materially miss the June sales target and i really dont think 10 influencers will cut it in this consumer, non-pharma product.... i also cringe when i hear "with limited marketing" all the time... how did the MD think the product was going to be successful in such a competitive environment with no marketing plan / very limited budget. Bizarre.

Ok. Thanks Phat, Clio and Toy. I agree the stock has been oversold (now lower than before the BRIGHT results). And agree the high of 75p was ahead of ourselves. I hope to see 50p by end of year. Hope the points you guys said come off. cheers

Hi Phat. Can you just tell us why the SP will be considerably higher in the next 3-6 months? based on what? The croda deal (gone quiet), increasing sales (from an extremely low base, will takes months if not until next year to get to the first target for March that was "materially" missed. Why do you think the SP will go higher?

The RNS today I read as positive. sounds like they have a drill company and all set but final negotiations and due diligence. That's good. Means we have two parties (He1 and the rig company) who want the deal to go ahead and both have final things they want... but both wont want the deal to collapse so compromise will be reached.

Also sounds like we have 1/2 priority targets from the 2D seismic data.

Okay, nothing confirmed or guaranteed but feeling much more positive after this RNS. Once we get the rig confirmed, can see it going to 20p as it went to 28p last year on the rig/drilling but now we have more info.

Then the only question for me is do i sell at 20p and get a decent return from my average of 14p (I'm heavily invested) or take a chance for the jackpot.

Thoughts and opinions on above very very welcome. I like this board

The whole board is red today... why so many sells.... with news a few weeks away? That is worrying. Why sell at 9.5p?

At 28p? Its all red today.... whats the reason?

I like your confidence dirty. Roughly how many shares are you in for?

Ive been in since April 2021. I remember the wait last year and then the drop from 28p to 6p...

This is the latest.... "Within a very competitive drilling rig market, driven by increased oil and gas prices, the Company remains confident that we will secure a suitable rig for drilling at Rukwa within the 2022 drilling season."

That to me says they are struggling to get a rig as its very competitive. Yes, discussions may be advanced but "remains confident"... this was two months ago... its now almost June.... and the rains start in November.... It's looking unlikely unless we hear by end of May / at the mining conference.

Why are others confident that we are getting a rig?