Member Info for ocelot

So what prompts you to tune in, Qwerty?

Reminder, from the Times of 25/05:

Welsh gold rush

A company has lodged a planning application to dig for gold in Snowdonia after getting wind of £750 million in hidden nuggets. Gold Mines of Wales wants to dig 8 trenches up to 90m (295ft) long and nearly 2m deep near the Clogau gold mine, which closed in 1998. Gold from the area has been used in royal wedding rings since Queen Victoria's reign.

Note re Dodger47's link that the "a" is missing from graphene.

CEO bought 50,000 shares yesterday at 41.9p.

Let's make that 6-9 months, to be more prudent.

Would hope to see it within about the next 6 months - think the share price rise should accelerate as the year progresses.

Because of the conservative 10% discount rate used to calculate the net present value of the Saltfleetby mid-case forecast, have revised up my own ball-park share price, from about 5.5p to about 8p.

10 mins ago

Way under-valued.

Suspect a less conservative discount rate than 10% might produce a net present value for the Saltfleetby mid-case forecast of, say, about £40m instead of £25.2m.

Just to follow through re the net present value calculation:

interest rates are currently closer to 0% than 10%. Discounted at 0%, the net present value to ANGS of the Saltfleetby mid-case forecast would be £50.5m and not £25.2m.

PS: that 10% rate to calculate net present value may be generally accepted but does look, given where interest rates are currently, to be very conservative in itself.

And the £50.5m becomes £25.2m when discounted at 10% pa to calculate the net present value, ie the mid-case value to ANGS "right now".

As I understand it, you've simply put aside the calculation of the net present value.

MichaelGoodwill,

I see what you've done, but, imho, you are being very, very conservative.

Why assume today's gas price will still prevail through the next 10-12 years when, through the futures curve, the market provides you with prices for gas during the next several years?

It is also wrong analytically simply to reduce £50m by 80%, because you are applying a reduction derived from today's gas price to a figure of £50.5m which is pre-tax future NET revenue, ie AFTER operating expenses (see pp52-53 of the Saltfleetby CPR).

To comment on your figures, MichaelGoodwilll, one needs to be able to understand what they mean.

You say: "Right now, it is £10m over 10 years or so, ...":

1/ what exactly does "it" refer to? The net present value of Saltfleetby's mid-case forecast? Something else?

2/ how have you arrived at your figure of "£10m over 10 years or so"?

Given the uninvited and rude guests at HH, thought the share price help up well.

Looking forward to the coming days and weeks.

See p49 of the Saltfleetby CPR, it's the forward price that's used, not the spot price.

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Reserves-Resources-Valuation-Report-Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Assets-Effective-Date-28th-February-2020-Report-Date-4th-March-2020.pdf

1.11p on a UT trade of 11,999 shares.

advfn is showing the closing price as 1.11p, up 0.06p.

https://www.erce.energy/graph/uk-natural-gas-futures-curve

Don't know if this helps - the most recent corporate presentation dated November 2019:

https://www.albamineralresources.com/ul/20191031%20Alba%20Corporate%20Presentation%20November%202019.pdf