RE: MichaelGoodwill2 Jun 2020 22:11
Since you say that the Balcombe Discovery is considered to be in the sweet spot of the Weald Basin and given the 568m thickness and highest maturity of the Kimmeridge layersand that the Balcombe 2Z side track has opened up an approximately 1,700 ft horizontal section through the upper Kimmeridge Micrite,
on what basis are you targeting such a conservative flow rate 300bpd from this well? Asked on 19 November 2019
Good question. We do indeed believe that the Kimmeridge at Balcombe is in the sweet spot of the basin, and we are confident that the well will flow oil given that we have already seen this during the previous test. Rates in the Autumn 2018 test were, however, short lived as the dense drilling fluid in the well made sustained oil flow impossible. As a result we cannot accurately predict flow rates based on the limited information we have, and we are left to use geological information and analogous rates from offset wells. Horse Hill, which has a vertical well, has been flowing oil from the Kimmeridge at rates of 200 – 300 BOPD and being very conservative we would expect to match this. Given, as you correctly note, this well is a long lateral, one might expect rates to be 2 – 3 times higher than that of a vertical well and so we would certainly want to exceed the 300 BOPD rate, however, until we test the well we simply do not know for certain how the reservoir will perform. We want shareholders to have understanding of our reasonable expectations but would also, as a company, prefer to surprise on the upside rather than overpromise and underdeliver.
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