Member Info for ocelot

The CPR figures include the £16 million tax shield the company have. That won’t be available for anyone buying Saltfleetby alone or part of it.
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True. The tax losses are available within AEWB No3 Limited, so can only be exploited by the owner of AEWB No3 Limited.

So, technically, the SoS has "recovered", rather than "called in", the application.

He "will normally only do this if the application conflicts with national policy in important ways, or is nationally significant".

I've been looking for double digits in the (not so) longer term and right now believe the company is worth in the order of 6p.

These carry forward tax losses in Angus's 100%-owned subsidiary can only be accounted for as a deferred tax asset in the group's accounts when there is a reasonable expectation of their recovery against taxable profits, ie. after first gas. For the present, they are off balance sheet.

The annual accounts for the year ending 30/09/22 should see a major boost from this factor alone.

AEWB's ring fenced carry forward tax losses at 30/09/21 were worth 40% of £16.92m ie. £6.77m (p47 of the revised CPR):

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf

Very close to first gas (never been closer!), pretty close to the sidetrack, natural gas prices still around 200p.

It wouldn't be receiving approaches and indications if those with the necessary means didn't see it as an attractive opportunity.

2022 outlook of the fund manager Barry Norris (extracts from a Citywire article of today):

... ‘Demand for oil should see a strong recovery in 2022. We also see a structural energy shock like that witnessed with Opec in the 1970s, as the cost of decarbonisation becomes clear.

‘Switching off fossil fuels for unreliable renewables has already resulted in structurally higher power prices, which has not only hit the consumer but rendered much of Europe’s heavy industry uncompetitive. Higher food and energy prices will also result in extreme social and political unrest in emerging markets.’ ...

2022 outlook of the fund manager Barry Norris (extracts from a Citywire article of today):

... ‘Demand for oil should see a strong recovery in 2022. We also see a structural energy shock like that witnessed with Opec in the 1970s, as the cost of decarbonisation becomes clear.

‘Switching off fossil fuels for unreliable renewables has already resulted in structurally higher power prices, which has not only hit the consumer but rendered much of Europe’s heavy industry uncompetitive. Higher food and energy prices will also result in extreme social and political unrest in emerging markets.’ ...

Gas and power traders are flocking to exchanges as energy companies seek to protect themselves from the risk of others collapsing.

With volatility climbing to record levels, the share of European gas traded on the Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the European Energy Exchange and CME Group Inc. ballooned to about 80% at the end of last year, according to data compiled by price-reporting service ICIS. That’s up from almost 50% just a year earlier and about 40% at the end of 2019.

Exchanges have been gaining ground in recent years, replacing the bilateral trades in the over-the-counter market that have long dominated European gas and power deals. As prices more than doubled last year, energy companies including RWE AG and Uniper SE restricted the number of parties with which they can trade directly in the physical market, boosting the appeal of bourses...

... said Thomas Rodgers, a European gas analyst at ICIS. “A few big utilities are still trading with each other on the OTC market, while all the hedge funds and other players seem to primarily operate on the exchange.” ...

“This level of uncertainty doesn’t seem like that’s going to end any time soon,” ICE’s Bennett said. “If there are reasons for people wanting to do more on the exchange, it doesn’t feel like those are going to go away.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-07/energy-traders-find-refuge-in-exchanges-as-volatility-fuels-fear?sref=Em01M8Hr

Note that the disclosure requirements cover short as well as long positions:

An Opening Position Disclosure must contain details of the person's interests and short positions in, and rights to subscribe for, any relevant securities of each of (i) the offeree company and (ii) any securities exchange offeror(s).

If there are any interesting undisclosed positions in the stock, yesterday's RNS should bring them into the light of day.

If I recall the other 49% is a one man band who was already approached by Anglo African Oil and Gas £8m for 25% last May 2021.
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Think it's the other way around, EchDelta, that the "one-man band" is the most significant shareholder in AAOG and was looking for a way to obtain a listing for part of his holding in Saltfleetby.

Sum of the parts valuation of 18/06/21:

£43m or 3.93p per share (on the basis of the current issued share capital) after prudential discounts of 80% and 90% against, respectively, Lidsey and geothermal.

Since then, the revised CPR has increased the value of Saltfleetby by more than 50% and Lidsey has made further significant progress.

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ANGUS-ENERGY-PROACTIVE.pdf

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the government is worried about the economic and social fallout from the surge in energy prices and is trying to find ways to keep protecting consumers and businesses.

The government has pledged to contain the annual increase in electricity prices at 4% primarily using tax cuts. But the surge in wholesale costs has taken policy makers by surprise and the finance ministry is negotiating with state-controlled EDF for other fixes.

“If we don’t find a solution in the coming days, French people will see an increase between 35% and 40% in electricity bills,” Le Maire said at a press conference in Paris. “It is an absolute emergency because the explosion in electricity prices is neither sustainable for households nor for businesses.” ...

“Look at what is happening in Kazakhstan; it’s quite instructive in terms of what can happen when energy, electricity or gas prices explode,” Le Maire said. “It’s politically dangerous.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-07/france-s-le-maire-says-power-price-surge-is-absolute-emergency?srnd=premium-europe&sref=Em01M8Hr

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the government is worried about the economic and social fallout from the surge in energy prices and is trying to find ways to keep protecting consumers and businesses.

The government has pledged to contain the annual increase in electricity prices at 4% primarily using tax cuts. But the surge in wholesale costs has taken policy makers by surprise and the finance ministry is negotiating with state-controlled EDF for other fixes.

“If we don’t find a solution in the coming days, French people will see an increase between 35% and 40% in electricity bills,” Le Maire said at a press conference in Paris. “It is an absolute emergency because the explosion in electricity prices is neither sustainable for households nor for businesses.” ...

“Look at what is happening in Kazakhstan; it’s quite instructive in terms of what can happen when energy, electricity or gas prices explode,” Le Maire said. “It’s politically dangerous.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-07/france-s-le-maire-says-power-price-surge-is-absolute-emergency?srnd=premium-europe&sref=Em01M8Hr

PS: there are very few votes in arguing the need for energy security. The threat of fuel poverty is a very different matter and puts at risk the government's red wall seats and its majority.

I've called this before and got it wrong, but I do wonder if we have not arrived at a major turning point.

The intervention of the Secretary of State is, in theory, certainly, bullish news for UKOG and, indeed, for the sector in general, an indication that the threat of fuel poverty may help to facilitate the work of onshore operators in the future.

The share is currently in the middle of a long-established trading range.

Imho, it needs to break out above 1.20p and, for myself, to believe it has achieved this break-out, I probably need to see it breach 1.40p.

... the Company hopes that in deciding the appeal, the SoS will carefully consider how Loxley gas, as a secure domestic source, could help address these pertinent national issues which are detailed below:

-- The lack of weight given to future UK domestic gas supply and the resultant increasing import dependency exposes the UK economy and consumers to upwards gas price volatility and decreasing security of supply. New domestic gas, such as Loxley, could help mitigate this situation.

-- The UK's recent increased dependence upon imported Liquified Natural Gas, with 4-5 times the pre-combustion footprint of domestic gas, could negatively impact the UK's net zero ambitions. Domestic gas, such as Loxley, offers a significant net zero advantage in this respect.

-- Similarly, higher carbon footprint gas imports could also negatively impact the initial phases of the UK's 'Hydrogen Economy' from a net zero aspect as it is widely predicted that 'blue hydrogen' from methane reforming will initially constitute a significant proportion of available hydrogen. Domestic gas offers a significant net zero advantage in this respect. The Company has stated that, if granted necessary permissions, it plans to supply Loxley gas as a feedstock for reforming into hydrogen, fully in keeping with the government's net zero ambitions and plans.

-- The need for continued gas supply to 2050 and beyond has been recognised by the climate change committee.

... For Angus there is only so much one can say because it is now in a bid situation but the way that the market has unsurprisingly hugely undervalued its assets is regrettably the case across the board, so investors should look at other assets equally undervalued if they havent already done so. The fact that Angus has rung the first bell is of massive credit to the CEO and the board who are allowing shareholders the chance to evaluate what appears on the table. After a long time in which the value has lain unnoticed, it is time for the bidders to put the money down, ...

https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/01/oil-price-angus-advance-sdx-and-finally/

(with thanks to Heid on the UJO board)