Member Info for ocelot

Agreed re the market: today's biggest trade was done at nearly 0.25p but the market-makers then pulled the price down on some pretty innocuous trades.

1.19p paid.

8.4m+ trade at 0.2498p, way above the current offer price.

Volume so far of 28.9m on AIM.

A recurrent theme of Friday's annual report RNS was the emphasis placed on near-term cash generation and self-funding capacity:

The Company is reviewing the potential acquisition of further new international producing oil and gas properties which have the potential to deliver potentially significant short term cash flow. These assets also have the potential to become self-funding relatively quickly...
... New assets added to the Company's portfolio must demonstrate potential self-funding capacity in the near term. Once in production, revenues from these assets will provide free cash flow to re-invest and deliver shareholder returns...
... Should negotiations be successful, there is the realistic prospect of adding significantly to both our reserves and cash flow base in the coming year...
... The Company evaluated a number of potential producing oil & gas fields and near-term production opportunities in the period with the greatest number being within the United States, ...
... However, with UKOG's wide-ranging activity and interests we firmly believe that the Company is progressing towards being self-sufficient in its generation of cash flows.
Even the decision not to appeal Arreton was presented as a way to save £500k for other opportunities.

Big volume day?

5.7m after first half an hour.

UKOG has survived a succession of setbacks in pretty good shape; its only financial debt is that owed to the non-controlling interests in HHDL of £3.087m at 30/09/21, the repayment of which it controls as the majority holder in HHDL.

It remains an ambitious company.

The company is becoming less vulnerable to decision-making by councillors re fossil fuel projects in the South-East of England because, as Drill or Drop headlines, it "is investigating international oil and gas projects and renewable schemes at home, ...".

Basur-3s, Loxley, a possible overseas acquisition, perhaps in the US, developments re greener sources of energy in the UK (and possibly elsewhere) and re HH, there is a lot going on and to look forward to.

Technically, at 0.1325p, it is sitting above all of the key moving averages except one, the 200-day, which, at 0.133p, is a mere whisker away.

Is there a major re-rating in the offing?

I see a couple of comments have been appended to Drill or Drop's article by PhilC.

His 2nd comment quotes the lyrics of Johnny Nash's "I can see clearly now" which starts thus:

I can see clearly now, the rain is gone,
I can see all obstacles in my way
Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind
It’s gonna be a bright (bright), bright (bright)
Sun-Shiny day.

UK Oil & Gas plc is investigating international oil and gas projects and renewable schemes at home, the company’s annual accounts said today ... (the headline of Drill or Drop's article).

https://drillordrop.com/2022/03/25/ukog-accounts-look-beyond-weald-oil-and-gas/

An article on the BBC's website suggests the government's energy strategy statement is for this week, so this week or next week depending upon the source.

According to an article in the Times this morning entitled "PM 'does not want fracking anywhere" (p15), the energy strategy should be released within the next fortnight.

Suspect Johnson's propensity to spend is causing some problems for the occupant of No.11.

https://drillordrop.com/2022/03/25/ukog-accounts-look-beyond-weald-oil-and-gas/

PS: I had assumed UKOG were waiting for the publication of the government's energy strategy before deciding about the Arreton appeal, but they didn't, suggesting that the alternative projects they are studying are potentially more attractive ones.

according to an article in the Times entitled "PM 'does not want fracking anywhere" (p15).

"Boris Johnson is resolutely opposed to fracking and is open to onshore wind farms only if communities want them, The Times has been told".

Another article discuss the relationship between Johnson and Rishi Sunak, which presumably explains at least part of the delays to publication of the energy strategy: "Sunak bruised in battle with the big spender next door" (p14).

It's involved in the argument before it can produce the oil or gas!

It's clear: the burden of the UK regulatory regime and local councillors has prompted UKOG to seek more promising projects elsewhere, first, in SE Turkey, now, possibly, in the States.

Whether XR is doing much for the climate by encouraging the UK to import its energy from foreign sources remains open to debate.

Not sure about that, but not a Bitcoin expert:

Bitcoin should rise with the tide of central bank money being pumped into the economy whereas gold should rise because it is a real asset and store of value.

Arreton out but, on the other side:

... we have completed the evaluation of potentially lucrative proven oil & gas field opportunities elsewhere in the world, including in the United States, where access to such opportunities has arisen from within the Directors' extensive business network. Should negotiations be successful, there is the realistic prospect of adding significantly to both our reserves and cash flow base in the coming year.

Gold is not yet trading at the levels warranted of a safe haven during periods of undue stress, currently caused by the war in Ukraine and heightened inflation, according to Citywire A-rated David Coombs.

Coombs, who runs several multi-asset funds at Rathbones, is surprised to see the price of gold is still sitting below $2,000 (£1,517) an ounce.

‘I am puzzled at the current price, which really does not reflect the increased macro geopolitical risks we are now seeing,’ he told Citywire...

‘Given the circumstances, it should be closer to $3,000.’ ...

If he were to make a guess, the metal’s pricing may rest on how the Federal Reserve moves in the coming months, especially if it does not deliver on the expected six rate hikes by the end of 2022.

‘We will know more in around three months’ time. If that is the case, you would see gold rising fast because the risk-free rate of cash does not go up so much, and then gold looks less expensive.’

Agreed, the annual report RNS has been well received.

Closed at 1.15p, +0.20p or 21.1%.

That's a good rise in solid volume of 20.1m shares (before any late-reported trades) - promising!