Member Info for ocelot

Here's another "if", WG818:

if all the warrants are exercised at their exercise prices in the range of 1.20p to 1.50p, that's about £2m of additional cash which becomes available to Angus.

Assuming the side-track is successful, how much cashflow will be generated (including hedged production) in H2 2022. Asked on 6 March 2022

... The average hedged sales price is 43 pence/therm over the life of the hedge and the unhedged forward prices are presently not far off 300 pence/therm for unhedged sales in H2 2022. On the basis of a side track completed and online by mid August then H2 gross revenues (Angus share 51%) might be in the region of £24m which would ignore any benefit of unhedged production during June, potentially w0rth a further £4.5m at 300pence/therm. Again we repeat that this is not advice to shareholders but guidance on calculation only and investors are urged to do their own research based on RNS advised production levels and prices.

Can the company update shareholders with the latest comprehensive timetable for arrival of equipment and commissioning and first gas? Can the BoD also update the status of any remaining regulatory permissions being specifically the EA application and the Local Authority planning variation? Asked on 6 March 2022

Hopefully these have been answered in RNS. We do expect further (positive and negative) variation in particular skid arrival dates – we are adding sound absorbent materials to some units and bunding others – but the end April date for delivery of the last skid is unchanged from that advised to market.

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/

From the BBC's rolling live coverage of Ukraine:

Biden says he is announcing a "use-it-or-lose it" policy, where companies will face fees for idle wells if they do not restart production.

Russia will halt gas supplies to buyers from ‘unfriendly’ states unless they switch to payments in rubles from April 1, President Vladimir Putin said, the latest strike in a struggle with Europe over energy sales.

“To buy Russian gas, they need to open ruble accounts in Russian banks,” Putin told officials in a televised speech Thursday. “It is from those accounts that gas will be paid for starting April 1. If such payments aren’t made, we will consider this a failure by the client to comply with its obligations.”

Buyers should open special accounts in state-controlled Gazprombank to allow foreign currency to be swapped to rubles for settlements, according to an order signed by Putin.

Russia will halt gas supplies to buyers from ‘unfriendly’ states unless they switch to payments in rubles from April 1, President Vladimir Putin said, the latest strike in a struggle with Europe over energy sales.

“To buy Russian gas, they need to open ruble accounts in Russian banks,” Putin told officials in a televised speech Thursday. “It is from those accounts that gas will be paid for starting April 1. If such payments aren’t made, we will consider this a failure by the client to comply with its obligations.”

Buyers should open special accounts in state-controlled Gazprombank to allow foreign currency to be swapped to rubles for settlements, according to an order signed by Putin.

Russia will halt active gas contracts if buyers don’t comply with its demand to pay in rubles, President Vladimir Putin said, Bloomberg

Bloomberg News
31 March 2022, 14:23 BST
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Russia will halt active gas contracts if buyers don’t comply with its demand to pay in rubles, President Vladimir Putin said, Bloomberg

There's a 1m trade on Aquis timed at 10:52:48.

another extract from the annual report RNS of 14/03/22 which immediately precedes the extract re the hedge of my post of 08:50:

Over subsequent months a more complete re-interpretation will take place over the whole field and in particular over the southern satellite reservoir with the aim of shaping a field development programme to convert some of the 12 BCF of 1C (the low estimate of) contingent resources into 1P (P90 or proven) reserves to supplement the existing 18 BCF of 1P reserves from the main Westphalian reservoir.

From the annual report RNS of 14/03/22:

The Company also hedged approximately 50% of the Company's and its partners' share of future gas sales, estimated under a conservative projection, for three years beginning in July 2022. The average achieved price under the Hedge, including all fees, costs and charges is 43 pence per therm. Since entering into the Hedge agreements we have seen a significant increase in gas prices. As previously announced, the Hedged limits were set at 50% of our estimated gas production leaving the company with enough headroom to comfortably meet the requirements under the Hedge whilst still enjoying unhedged production.

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/

I put HeadinTheSand, Mirasol and nomlungu on filter about a year ago.

It's worth a read, yes, because it helps to understand the nature of the swap contract, but it remains true that Angus's participating interest doesn't begin until July and excludes an important part of total anticipated production post the sidetrack.

Re the hedge, the revised CPR of 26/10/21 is helpful, pp48-49:

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf

Citywire article, opening paragraphs:

Supply threat: Energy majors limit spending despite oil surge
By Jamie Colvin 30 Mar, 2022 at 07:00
Supply threat: Energy majors limit spending despite oil surge

‘Careful’ western energy majors have barely upped their investment in oil extraction this year despite surging crude prices, in contrast to a freer spending Saudi Aramco, potentially setting the stage for a decade of elevated energy costs.

Historically, oil companies have raised capital expenditure when prices are high, but governments’ reluctance to permit new drilling and sour memories of a spending splurge from 2011-2015 are all curbing that tendency today, said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

That could see demand outstrip supply in coming years, pushing energy prices up further as we continue to rely on fossil fuels during the transition to renewable energy...

Citywire article, opening paragraphs:

Supply threat: Energy majors limit spending despite oil surge
By Jamie Colvin 30 Mar, 2022 at 07:00
Supply threat: Energy majors limit spending despite oil surge

‘Careful’ western energy majors have barely upped their investment in oil extraction this year despite surging crude prices, in contrast to a freer spending Saudi Aramco, potentially setting the stage for a decade of elevated energy costs.

Historically, oil companies have raised capital expenditure when prices are high, but governments’ reluctance to permit new drilling and sour memories of a spending splurge from 2011-2015 are all curbing that tendency today, said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

That could see demand outstrip supply in coming years, pushing energy prices up further as we continue to rely on fossil fuels during the transition to renewable energy...

36,000 UT took the close up to 1.40p.

When projecting revenue figures, it's important to remember that Angus's share of Saltfleetby is 51%.

From the video with lse of this Monday at the top of this page:

2:03: re natural gas, "the long-term price picture looks immensely supportive for shareholder value".