Member Info for ocelot

Bubblepoint,

Imho, the negative sentiment will subside (I don't know when - it could be any time) and the share price will re-rate on the basis of the figures of the business and of growth prospects.

MontyMcgree,

Bit of a 2-edged sword, inflation. It reduces the value of currencies, enhancing the appeal of gold. But central banks fight it with interest rates so there is an opportunity cost in holding gold.

Gold prices could soar through the end of 2025 if inflation stages a comeback, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni.

The Yardeni Research president predicted that gold prices could rise as high as $3,500 by the end of next year, implying as much as a 49% upside for the precious metal from Monday's price around $2,347. That's because inflation could follow the path it did in the 1970s, when prices began to spiral and gold went from $35 an ounce to a peak of $665 an ounce ...

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-outlook-record-2025-inflation-oil-production-us-economy-2024-4

What would be a conservative EV/EBITDA multiple for Angus? 8x?

I don't think the share's current price can be explained in terms of the fundamentals of the business, it seems to be very much a matter of negative sentiment.

It looks to be on an EV/EBITDA of about 2.

Following the comment of Krzys Zielicki in the webinar that Angus is valued by the market at about 1x EBITDA:

"EV/EBITDA in energy & environmental services worldwide 2019-2023, by industry

Published by Statista Research Department, Jun 19, 2023

Worldwide, the average value of enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) in the energy & environmental services sector as of 2023, was a multiple of approximately 12.5x. Green & renewable energy companies saw the highest valuation multiples with an average of 14.03x".

EV = market cap + total debt - cash.

EBITDA in the last annual report: £17.002m

Investors don't necessarily invest on the basis of the number of shares they buy, they can invest on the basis of the size of the investment measured in £s.

As I've mentioned before, such a high proportion of shares held in (one assumes) firm hands creates the technical conditions for a price squeeze should significant buying occur.

Aleph Commodities is a NEW significant shareholder on the share register: they must have been holding close to 3% before the RNS of 14/03.

42.06% of shares were held by significant shareholders BEFORE today's announcement, we now have about half of all shares in their hands.

Aleph Commodities holds 8.11% as of 19/03 (follows the RNS of 14/03)

Unless I'm mistaken, there is no link between UKOG's website and UKEn's site.

Hopefully, the supreme court will deliver its judgement soon and during this term (ends on 24/05)

In my posts, I concentrate on the future but it hasn't all been "fortune telling", RH has also been discussing the past.

From 01:09 says that:

they are currently about 65% hedged on their production and that, as of June, this will change to more like 55%, providing more upward exposure to current gas prices.

Bubblepoint,

In your 2nd paragraph, think you are preaching to the converted, given what RH has said in the webinar and in this interview.

In the very short term, the price can come back. In the longer term, think the gold price is heading upwards.

The article makes clear one of the principal concerns is the level of debt in the world, including that of governments, including that of the Federal government.

The Truss government showed the markets how instantaneously confidence in a government's ability to manage its debt can change to alarm and panic.

The traditional response of governments to debt which has become unmanageable is to inflate and thereby debase the currency. Hence a key attraction of gold.

Https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-04-05/gold-rally-just-getting-started

Where might they be looking for growth opportunities?

From 12:23:

"We will play to our strengths. We know that we can run mature assets well. We have a lot of experience in field rehabilitation and mature field management, ..."

From about 05:41, re Saltfleetby reserves:

" ... sub-surface evaluation shows that there could be quite significant upside (to reserves) which sits in other reservoir levels (than that of the principal level) within the field ... so this could provide us with some really substantial reserves upside in the future".

from 07:41:

"... we're in a position to move forwards with looking at new projects".

from 08:17:

management wants to "take the company to the next level in terms of the assets it has and really put it on a path to growth".

Deltavegatheta,

I can see the upside potential but whether this is realised will require one or two things to go UKOG's way including, for example, a (largely) favourable judgement in the Supreme court case and discussions with major players concerning Portland to begin to bear fruit.