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Good spot @jimb. That's VERY interesting news for us. I hope @Kiran's seen it!

Indeed @Dallas (and hello!) That's the value of our JV based on the 19 years 17.5ktpa/35ktpa DFS plan...

@tomcat One way of relating the value in terms of your cake analogy is to compare the mineral reserves attributable with Cadence to that (now) attributable with BCN:

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/
===[
MINERAL RESERVES (Cut-off grade if 1,500 ppm Li)

Category Tonnes Ore (000t) Li (ppm) K (%) LCE (000t) LCE attributable to Cadence (000t)
Proven 80,146 3,905 1.64 1,666 116
Probable 163,662 3,271 1.36 2,849 723
Total 243,808 3,480 1.45 4,515 839
]===

Total reserves are 4,515kt LCE, of which 839kt LCE is attributable to Cadence. This means 3,676kt LCE is attributable to BCN + Ganfeng. They are now 50:50 so 1,838kt LCE is attributable to BCN.

So a starting fraction for negotiations based on this measure is 839kt / 1,838kt = 4/9th. Clearly there are reasons why it should be less than this (Zinnwald + cash), and reasons why it should be higher (we don't need to sell!). Perhaps 50% of the offer they make for BCN for our JV's isn't so far fetched at this stage? Though if Amapa comes good I'd expect our hand to be stronger which should increase our desire only to sell if they are able to meet our ask, or not at all. :-))))

Ob.

Indeed @tomcat. That is the theoretical price. The practical price is related to what BCN is sold for.

Further rise into the Chinese holiday. :-)))) DCE reopens Tuesday.

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date Seaborne index 58% Fe fines Seaborne index 62% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe concentrates premium Seaborne index 65% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe pellets premium
2021-06-11 166.20 219.20 25.50 248.80 64.20
2021-06-10 164.20 215.20 25.50 244.80 64.20
2021-06-09 161.20 212.70 25.50 242.50 64.00
2021-06-08 159.20 210.00 25.50 239.30 64.00
2021-06-07 151.20 202.70 25.50 231.30 64.00
]===

Nicely summarised @tomcat.

Something for the weekend :-) I'm interested to know other's thoughts on what offer you would accept if you were our BoD and Ganfeng had approached you with an offer to take one or both of our 30% JV's in Sonora conditional on them taking 100% ownership of BCN?

For me it's clearly no secret they intend to accelerate beyond what is in the DFS - I wouldn't be surprised if they had aspirations to start at 50ktpa and double to 100ktpa in short order. The implications on our JV for this are immense - I've previously estimated how various acceleration scenarios are likely to impact the NPV of our JV from the current low double digit millions to middling triple digits. KDNC.PL 22 Mar 2021 21:05 :-)))

I'm also wondering how much value others are now placing on Sonora in our current share price? Perhaps we are too focused on Amapa, and discounting too heavily. Me being included in this we! ;-)

Of course this is all hypothetical, but it's not so far fetched as the 29p options were offered around the time of the Ganfeng announcement, so it's certainly possible to my mind that agreements could have been inked behind the scenes under NDA.

If I were our BoD I'd relate the price we are willing to accept to some (large!) fraction of the BCN offer. Now what large fraction would we be happy with, that's the question? :-))))

Ob.

Eminently so. ;-)

Indeed @EV! There seems to be an unusually high number of court movements of late. 6 yesterday and 4 the day before. It feels close... :-)))

LoL @Bannor. I sure do, but there are too many unknowns, and I'd rather wait until we own 20% of the company. But if someone plonks the plans in front of me it'll be hard to resist the temptation to estimate the value to us long term. This discovery came out of a discussion with @EV who noted that Gold is typically more exciting to punters than iron ore. Not sure where steel fits on the excitement spectrum, but to me taking ownership of an integrated iron ore mine (mine, railway, port) whose life of mine could be extended significantly, its rate of production could potentially be doubled and it has now been confirmed that this integration could be extended further with a steel works, is VERY exciting, and should benefit the project's green credentials in terms of reducing carbon emissions by not having to ship material around the world, and local community in terms of reduced construction costs due to lower steel prices. Oh, and those funding these developments. :-))))

Of course if anyone manages to dig up the plans... LoL.

Thanks @Dorman. What I pasted is as far as my research along those lines have taken me! LoL. I really don't want to go any further until we take our 20%, but suffice to say this is clear evidence to me that plans were previously afoot to build a steel works (starting with blast furnaces) for the good of the local Amapa community. Now that's what I call exciting! ;-)

A couple more movements...

And look what I've found ;-)

"Zamin Ferrous presents construction schedule for Amapá state's first steel plant" (January 11, 2013)
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/metals/zamin-ferrous-presents-construction-schedule-for-amapa-states-first-steel-plant
===[
Jersey-registered Zamin Ferrous has presented the government of Brazil's northern Amapá state with a US$120mn plan for the building of two blast furnaces, the company's inaugural step towards the construction of Amapá's first steel plant, local press reported. According to Zamin's schedule, the steel plant's deployment will occur in two stages. In the first 18 months, the company will invest US$60mn to build a blast furnace to produce pig iron. The construction of a second blast furnace, aimed to produce steel, is scheduled for 12 months later, with an investment of another US$60mn. The steel output from Zamin's Amapá plant will be used in the production of agricultural machinery, appliances, automobiles, construction, mining and smelting. IRON ORE On January 4, multinational resource group Anglo American (LSE: AAL) and US-based Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE: CLF) agreed to the sale of its Amapá iron ore system, in northern Brazil, to Zamin Ferrous, an Anglo American press official confirmed to BNamericas without disclosing details. Sources familiar with the matter said the entire mine was worth about US$300mn. However, an internal valuation by Anglo American last year put the value of Amapá at US$1.5bn, the Financial Times reported. ZAMIN Zamin acquired local iron ore miner SUSA Mineração in 2010. In Brazil, Zamin also has the Greystone iron ore project in Bahia state where the production target is 8Mt/y, and the Zamapá project in Amapá state where output is also set at 8Mt/y.
]===

Spot continuing to strengthen! :-)))

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date Seaborne index 58% Fe fines Seaborne index 62% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe concentrates premium Seaborne index 65% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe pellets premium
2021-06-10 164.20 215.20 25.50 244.80 64.20
2021-06-09 161.20 212.70 25.50 242.50 64.00
2021-06-08 159.20 210.00 25.50 239.30 64.00
2021-06-07 151.20 202.70 25.50 231.30 64.00
]===

and futures looking good. :-)))

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/iron-ore-62pct-fe-cfr-china-tsi-swap-futures_quotes_globex.html
===[
JUN 2021 210.19
JUN 2022 143.00
JUN 2023 112.70
JUN 2024 98.12
DEC 2024 93.06
]===

@MLQ - decent court movement the past few days and a Conclusions for decision yesterday...? Also DEV June ship got brought forward a little :-)))

LoL @Bannor. Now why would I do that whilst I'm still topping up? ;-)

LoL, @Bannor. Throw me a bone and I'll feed it to my calculator! ;-)

Indeed @EV. Did you see the U-D swap last night? :-)))

Anything else changed?