Member Info for observer842

"APP Securities Company Research - HAS" (26 March, 2019)
https://hastingstechmetals.com/
https://hastingstechmetals.com/download/46/research-reports/4914/app-securities-company-research-has.pdf

Interesting to note that they are placing an NPV in 2019 of A$570m = £305m on the project

Going by the current mining plan I'd say we have around 3.5-5% of that valuation attributable to us.

Call it an educated finger in the air £10-15m. I'm not saying we'd realise that value from a sale though - but we might!

Ob.

Always happy to agree to disagree @TigerByTheTail, especially since there are many people who think the same way as you about KDNC - it's a bit of a marmite share! But enough about them, this is the BCN board. I'm sticking by my 29-30p as the minimum equity raise point given current shareholder authorisation. @BigBiteNow provided some great analysis on 21 Mar '19 related to this.

Good question! According to the RNS:

"Issue of Convertible Loan Notes" (04 May 2018)
https://www.investegate.co.uk/inspirit-energy-hlds/rns/issue-of-convertible-loan-notes/201805041454342187N/
===[
The conversion is at the full discretion of the Company and on conversion, each new Ordinary Share will attract a half warrant (one warrant issued for every two CLNs converted) at the relevant conversion price valid for 12 months from the date of issue.
]===

To my, perhaps naive mind this means they won't convert unless the share price is sufficiently high (and certainly above 0.07p) to make those warrants worth holding.

===[
The principal amount of the CLNs are convertible at the higher of either 0.07 p per Ordinary Share of 0.1p each (the "Ordinary Shares" or "Existing Ordinary Shares" and subject to the Capital Reorganisation as set out below) or a discount of 25 per cent. to the previous trading day's closing market share price. The CLNs are interest free, convertible at the Company's option and, in the ordinary course, only are repayable by the Company in Ordinary Shares following a conversion notice.
]===

Given the above, surely it can't be just me that feels 0.028p is a steal for ordinary PI's?

Ob.

@TigerByTheTail.

If we are talking about M&A activity today (or the near future) then it will likely be based on the defined resources and reserves and what an increased mining production rate would look like if sold to a major. The current resources and reserves are as I spelt out in my post. In particular the defined reserves to BCN are 81.42% (page 127 of the feasibility study). The current mining plan for 17.5ktpa increasing to 35ktpa for 19 years has ~3.6% attributable to KDNC, and mostly in the later years. This is why KDNC's share price hardly has value from the currently mining plan in its share price - if at all, as this percentage is heavily discounted to the present.

In terms of what happens if the mining rate is doubled or more, it's quite clear as it stands from the extended mining shell on 130 of the feasibility study:

http://www.bacanoralithium.com/pdfs/Bacanora-FS-Technical-Report-25-01-2018.pdf

the vast majority would come from the joint ventures. I can't see an offer to purchase the JV's being based on anything less than JORC'd resource at the minimum, likely JORC'd reserve. KDNC wouldn't sell for anything less - unless as you say their hand was forced: which personally I very much doubt will happen, as they have many irons in the fire any one of which could be about to come good. Want to know more? Over to the KDNC board with you ;-)

Ob.

Also, I think we should have been called Kadence minerals - it's got more of an edge ;-)

;-) The point is I don't care how many shares are in issue (it's all about the market cap for me), but if you do, or other do then fine, if there is hard evidence that demonstrates your "facts" then why not consolidate if not too costly? It would solve my decimal place problem. My y'old thinking was that (sub-)penny stocks were supposed to indicate to investors the potential for growth. Perhaps times have changed? Perhaps the number of shares in issue really does put off some people? It shouldn't, other than what it indicates to them about the company's past and potential future - and they may be wrong on both of these, but perhaps it's the average that counts. In the same way that some investors go on the name of a company?

errr. I'm agreeing with you @maddog. Let's consolidate 1 to 100, or 1 to 1000 would be OK by me.

It is indeed exciting @jimb2. There's a possibility that their capital raise is to take our 30% Yangibana JV off our hands... I doubt it, but hey, that's what these boards are for - speculation, argument and counterargument, oh, and posting utter tosh ;-)

That's true @dougal, but the facility is still there should we be unable to find more attractive funding from elsewhere to help take us to production. For example from a John Gunn OCT, or other based venture or from an third party, perhaps via a joint venture arrangement with an industry leader?

I'm not particularly happy with the lack of real solid progress the past few years, I just hope with future hindsight I'll be patting myself on the back for having the resolution to continue to support this share. And at 0.028p what a steal! ;-)

Ob.

Admittedly I'm being a little bit selfish as some of the platforms I use to look at trades cut off the last few decimal places so a 100 to 1 consolidation would help me. Heck, why not make it 1000 to 1 to future proof us. LoL ;-)

Fine! If it's important to at least one person, then why not? 100 to 1 anyone? I wonder how much it would cost us? Are you willing to foot the bill @maddog? ;-)

@KLUCK17: "Observer842 What is the current value of the JVs in your opinion and what would KDNC hope to get from a change of control/take over of BCN?"

See my post on Mon 16:42 on the KDNC board.

My take is that the JV's are practically worthless until BCN gets funded. From there their value increases upwards towards the estimates made in that post in the region of half a billion dollars to KDNC.

If we are talking M&A activity before that point their worth is anybodies guess! I'd certainly expect at least middling double digit millions, perhaps even $100m depending on the nature of the M&A of course.

Ob.

@nookie. maybe today, maybe tomorrow, maybe never...

There is so much potential here. Unfortunately that is all it is at the moment. If HAS make it to production, if BCN make it to production, if GGG make it to production, if EMH is sold, if MMS is sold, if, if, if!

I love a share with lots of potential, but my oh my, what a journey this share has been!

Bottom line for me is the longer we hold out from selling any of the JV's the more returns we stand to get from them. Hopefully we now have enough value from elsewhere, and our new Australian assets to prevent us from needing to cash in too early.

Having said all that, it's very possible company defining news lands Q2 - M&A potential in the lithium sector feels very ripe!

Ob.

Not so much a con in my opinion, more likely long term holders refusing to let go of their shares leading to inflated share prices from those buying in on unrealistic *today* valuations of the company. The buys vastly outweighed the sells on the way up!

What will be interesting from my point of view is whether the once bitten, twice shy philosophy will apply next time. If so, it should lead to a more gradual rise on the news instead of the AIM froth, pump, spike, dump. But AIM is AIM, I somehow doubt it!

It's always hard to forecast a what if, but my take is that if the BoD hadn't raised on the back of the (unjustified IMHO) rise, there would be many here berating them for not doing so... Until we get a decent sustained share price raise they are dammed in whatever they do: today's sp is all that matters. I tend to focus (perhaps a bit too much!) on future potential...

Ob.

Nice one @Barksy! A capital raise is good in my book as I'm currently valuing our Yangibana JV's conservatively at 4% of Hasting's market cap. This is because I believe we have approximately 7% of the resources and 6% of the reserves, but come later in the mining schedule. I'm interested to hear how others might be valuing Yangibana in their own valuations.

"Interim Results" (29 March 2019)
https://www.investegate.co.uk/inspirit-energy-hlds/rns/half-year-report/201903290700033995U/
===[
During the period, the Group has continued to advance its microCHP boiler closer towards the goal of commercialisation. To this end, improvements to the design of the Group's Stirling engine technology, including simplification as part of the 'design for manufacture' process and meeting the challenges in new technology development, sourcing cheaper materials and efficiency re-redesign, has resulted in further delays to the certification process although we hope to progress forward with a higher output and cheaper cost base product latter his year.

The Group has continued discussions with a European company that may carry out the certification process, with the new cheaper but robust material employed in the latest model, and advanced manufacturing processes as and when the product is approved for production.
]===

It sounds like nothing was said. However. The use of the word "a" in the last few lines of the first paragraph above, rather than the word "the" MAY imply that there are yet more improvements in the pipeline, in addition to those announced in the last few years. Namely:

18 Jul 2017: Electrical efficiency improved from 3.0kW to 3.2kWe
29 Mar 2018: Increased efficiency in the regenerator allows commodity grade stainless steel derivative to be used

Clutching for a bone? Perhaps!

There is nothing in the interims that shouts buy, but as we head into our traditional news season I'm still surprised this share hasn't attracted more punters at prices significantly below the 0.07p minimum price the convertible loan can be converted at:

04 May 2018: Issue of £845k of Convertible Loan Notes raising £530k in cash, the balance converting existing debt.

Also, from the accounts burn rate I'd expect us to run out of cash by the summer so wouldn't be surprised if funding were announced on this time frame. Note that we have a significant debt facility available if necessary:

28 Dec 2018: $2,600,000 of debt facility available

and from the interim:
===[
Going concern

The Directors, having made appropriate enquiries, consider that adequate resources exist for the Company to continue in operational existence for the foreseeable future and that, therefore, it is appropriate to adopt the going concern basis in preparing the interim financial statements for the period ended 31 December 2018.
]===

It's back to waiting, but on news, good news, I'm expecting a decent re-rate ;-)

Ob.

@news
===[
END OF THE DAY: Its is the NPV and a/c the MKT CAP.
]===

I know you probably know, but there are other important metrics to look at when comparing projects. e.g. IRR. Here, have a final link on me for today ;-)

https://www.accountingtools.com/articles/the-difference-between-npv-and-irr.html

@news
===[
The Glen deal with Cameron giving pic credit means its reached a new C.V height.
]===

LoL. Quite possibly. "To reach a new CV height", sounds like it should be a dictionary definition. ;-)

@news
===[
Got to do more work re: NT. The NT is more obscure.
]===

I'll certainly be interested in whatever you uncover. Though I'll likely not start doing my research in depth on any of our up to 100% new assets (I've fully researched our Greenland 100% asset a few years back) until we have a decent news flow coming from them.

We certainly have a few wild cards! The MMS one caught me by surprise - and only a week or so after you mentioned its potential importance to me too!