Member Info for observer842

This image of what appears to be an empty (or near empty) handymax sized vessel:

https://binged.it/2DXqL2G

was very likely taken on 2019-07-18:

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05897&lng=-51.10738&zoom=15&time=2019-07-18&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

Look what I've just found: https://binged.it/2OZUo9I. No idea how old that photo is.

That might explain the image without any barge at the port. A full barge had just left and had yet to be replaced with an empty barge from the pool of barges below. :-)

Nice hint @Barksy! White square is several barges and a tug boat! 5 in this bing image: https://binged.it/33Vcfmp

That's great @pgal! The barges are docking to the private port to the left of the Santana port on that site so I don't think they will be displayed, but we might be able to track the vessels to and from the private port nonetheless. I'll keep an eye out!

Thanks @tomcat. The long term plan is to rebuild the port so a handymax can dock to take the ore to the capesize. I wonder if in the mean time the ore is being transported via barges to the handymax which then travels to the capesize ship, or whether the barges are going directly to the capesize? Probably the latter if feasible as this involves less loading and unloading.

Obtimistically speaking:

2019-07-18
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-07-18&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Two fully loaded (blue) barges waiting at the port for the ship to arrive or agreements to be finalised before setting off

2019-07-28
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-07-28&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
The fully loaded barge at the port is tug-boated to the ship. The other is still to the left of the port

2019-08-02
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-08-02&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Same situation. Might imply at least 4 day round trip (including unloading)?

2019-08-07
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-08-07&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Barge on the left is being tugged to the ship. Barge at the port is being loaded.

2019-08-12 to 2019-09-16
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-08-12&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-09-16&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Loaded barge at the port

2019-09-21
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-09-21&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Empty barge at the port

2019-09-26
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-09-26&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Loaded barge at the port

2019-10-01 to 2019-10-31
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-10-01&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-10-31&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Empty barge at the port

2019-11-05
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-11-05&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Loaded barge at the port

2019-11-15
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-11-15&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Empty barge at the port

2019-11-30
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-11-30&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Nothing at the port

2019-12-05
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05392&lng=-51.18652&zoom=16&time=2019-12-05&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
Loaded barge at the port

If there are two barges in operation (seems likely), how do we explain the image with nothing at the port?

Ob

Perhaps now it makes sense why we haven't been told "shipment of the stockpiles by the end of December 2019." has begun - because it hasn't! Could be any day we get the announcement that the ship is full and ready to sail. Ideally along with the announcement of us owning 20% of the company. Now that would be a nice Christmas present :-)

Looking back through the images I shared I'm beginning to be persuaded that the evidence is sufficiently compelling that the operation has likely been progressing for several months in anticipation of meeting this deadline: "shipment of the stockpiles by the end of December 2019.". i.e. when the ship sets sail, not when the barges begin. Capesize ships are of the order of 150-400kt which means it would take several months to load @8.75kt every 4 days. @200kt would take 3 months.

Wow :-)

LoL @Barksy. I knew it was good to share research - multiple barges hadn't crossed my mind! :-)

This is what I was thinking of:
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR.pdf
===[
5.1.5

Certain voting rights to be disregarded (except at 5% 10% and
higher thresholds)

(1) The following are to be disregarded for the purposes of determining
whether a person has a notification obligation in accordance with the
thresholds in ¦ DTR 5.1.2 R except at the thresholds of 5% and 10%
and above:
(a) voting rights attaching to shares forming part of property
belonging to another which that person lawfully manages under
an agreement in, or evidenced in, writing;
(b) voting rights attaching to shares which may be exercisable by a
person in his capacity as the operator of:
(i) an authorised unit trust scheme;
(ia) an authorised contractual scheme;
(ii) a recognised scheme; or
(iii) a UCITS scheme;
(c) voting rights attaching to shares which may be exercisable by an
ICVC. (d) [deleted]

(2) For the purposes of ¦ DTR 5.1.5 R (1)(a), a person ("A") may lawfully
manage investments belonging to another if:
(a) A can manage those investments in accordance with a Part 4A
permission;
(b) A is an EEA firm other than one mentioned in sub-paragraphs (c)
or (e) of paragraph 5 of Schedule 3 to the Act and can manage
those investments in accordance with its EEA authorisation;
(c) A can, in accordance with section 327 of the Act, manage those
investments without contravening the prohibition contained in
section 19 of the Act;
(d) A can lawfully manage those investments in another EEA State
and would, if he were to manage those investments in the UK, require a Part 4A permission; or
(e) A can lawfully manage those investments in a non-EEA State and
would, if he were to manage those investments in the UK, require a Part 4A permission.
]===

I'm not sure which of those Hanwa would fall under, if any. @tomcat, you've mentioned shorting a few times. Have you concluded that from any of the above and the fact they haven't declared at the 6,7,8,9 boundaries?

Whilst it's on my mind... My understanding is that you have to declare a relevant % threshold crossing even if it is due to something you personally aren't involved with:

"Notes to TR1 Form"
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/ukla/notes-tr1.pdf
===[
The date on which a threshold is crossed should normally be the date on which the acquisition, disposal or possibility to exercise voting rights takes effect (see DTR 5.1.1R (3)). For passive crossings, the date when the corporate event took effect.

In the case of financial instruments with a similar economic effect to qualifying financial instruments, the date on which a threshold is reached or crossed is the date of entering into the agreement. In the case of reaching or crossing a threshold passively as a result of a change in a delta adjusted holding or due to a change in the total voting rights of the issuer, the date should be that when the delta adjustment occurs or the total voting rights change rather than the date at which the agreement was entered into.
]===

I'm wondering if I remember reading something about certain company's being exempt for the 6,7,8,9 crossings. That might explain it. Do you remember this exemption @tomcat?

Thanks @tomcat. So no notifications when they crossed the 9%, 8%, 7%, 6% thresholds since that announcement. Someone reading this must know why - don't be shy! We won't laugh if we find evidence to the contrary :-)

It's possible they've bought on market to keep themselves above the 9% threshold after every placing. Personally I think it's more likely they still have their 12,333,261 shares which is 5.53% of 222.98m and they simply haven't declared when they should have. Naughty.

I also meant to include evidence that the iron ore, when weathered is bluish. Take a look at figure 16 here:

"Gold, iron and manganese in central Amapá, Brazil" (Oct./Dec. 2017)
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2317-48892017000400703

The text just above that figure starting in section "IRON ORE DEPOSITS, THE MINE OF JINDAL" refers to Amapa and is an interesting read.

The point being, as the stockpiles are removed they may lose their blueish tint as viewed from above. More circumstantial evidence to look out for whilst we wait for official confirmation! Come on @Kiran. I'm wondering if we are close to signing off stage 1 and they want to announce these things together. I'd probably play it that way.

Ob.

I didn't answer the question! LoL. If it's expected to take 18-24 months to shift the stockpiles, and perhaps it started in the last week or two we might be looking at 0.25-0.5/18-24 = 1-3% shifted so far. For me it's not the quantity shifted, it's possible circumstantial evidence they may have started. Heavily caveated! :-)

We know from the August 30th announcement that "Over the next four months our key targets will [be] the start of detailed recommissioning studies and the start [of] shipment of the stockpiles by the end of December 2019."

As pointed out during the week there is circumstantial evidence that this may have started, or is at least preparing to start.

@Ivybush asked: "Any guestimate of percentage so far?"

From the August 30th RNS we know:

"An independent survey of these stockpiles indicates some 1.39 Mt (+/- 10%) of iron ore in three stockpiles with an average Fe grade of 62.12% (+/ 10%), which based a US$80 per tonne of 62% Fe would net Amapá a forecast US$60 million net of costs."

and:

"As mentioned above before the start of mining, the Amapá Project will also ship the iron ore stockpiles held at the dock by the end of December 2019 and continue for between 18 and 24 months."

An estimate of the capacity of the barge at the private port from various images. e.g.

https://www.bing.com/maps?osid=e57ba001-09f1-49f4-bd10-29430f0efd1e&cp=-0.052341~-51.18183&lvl=19&style=h&v=2&sV=2&form=S00027

might suggest it is around 35m by 10m. As for depth, perhaps 5 metres? This gives a volume of 1750 cubic metres. Density of iron ore is around 5t/m3, which implies the barge's capacity might be around 8.75kt, so somewhere in the region 5-10kt.

Shifting 1.39Mt @8.75kt would require 160 trips. @5-10kt would be 139-278 trips. Spread over 18-24 months (555-730 days). 21 months is 640 days.

The central cases of 160 trips over 640 days suggests cycle of 4 days. Perhaps something like: a day to load, a day to travel, a day to unload, a day to travel back. To where I don't know. If somewhere near by it might be 2 days to load, 2 days to unload, with negligible travel time.

For the 1 day load/unload scenario if the image dates and times we have access to were truly random (they are not) we might be expected to see the barge at the port in 1 in every 4 images in various stages of being loaded, from empty to full. For the 2 days to load/unload scenario with negligible travel time we might see the barge at the port in every other image.

Complete back of the envelope calculations. Doesn't take into account shifts, holidays, breaks etc. Just averages.

Got a new computer yet @Frankie? You'll be missing out on all the fun otherwise! I'm already looking forward to the next image - will it be clear or cloudy? Will the barge be there or not? Place your bets! LoL

Last two images:

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05032&lng=-51.18505&zoom=16&time=2019-11-30&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05032&lng=-51.18505&zoom=16&time=2019-12-05&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

Ob.

@r7632. Unless the company does an audit of its shares (which BCN has done in the past as they suspected someone wasn't declaring threshold crossing - which turned out to be the case!), the % they give in presentations is only deduced from that which they were last officially told about via at TR-1 or similar official notification. i.e. Hanwa's 5.53% is deduced from the original number of shares equating to 10% at the time Hanwa declared when they first invested taking into account subsequent increased number of shares in circulation. The fact Hanwa haven't declared less than 9/10% is very odd, and might indicate that in fact they still hold 10%. It's also possible that they are exempt from declaring, but I believe not. I'd be grateful for evidence suggesting the contrary.

For the Amapa mine itself, these are the best two cloud free images I can find:

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=0.81593&lng=-51.86246&zoom=15&time=2019-03-18&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=0.81593&lng=-51.86246&zoom=15&time=2019-11-03&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

Other than noting it's still there, nothing else much is going on, as we would expect! :-)

@Frankie. None of the stages/preconditions we are talking about have been met. The last RNS related to Amapa at the end of August announced that the plan had been signed off (homologated):

===[
Cadence Minerals (AIM/NEX: KDNC) is pleased to announce that the judicial restructuring plan ("JRP") submitted to the commercial court of São Paulo to recover and restart operations at the Amapá iron ore project, was approved by over 90% of the credit value at the JRP meeting held in São Paulo and Macapá, Brazil and was homologated by the courts on the 29 August 2019.
]===

The preconditions for the JRP to be signed off included our $2.5m being put into escrow. This was done and will be released when the preconditions of the first stage of the two stage investment of $6m are met, taking our holding initially to 20%, and then on completion of the second set of preconditions to 27% should we choose/be able to deliver an additional $3.5m.

Ob.

Indeed, it might explain why the share price rallies after every placement (Hanwa buying), only to settle back down in preparation for the next (@25p)? They are certainly keeping outsiders in the dark on this one! Brace for the big re-rate. But when? :-)