Member Info for observer842

Thanks @pgal, that's useful to know that the handymax vessels might travel hundreds of miles, perhaps even a thousand along the coast of Brazil to the capesize vessel.

I'm finding this a very informative read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulk_carrier

I don't know the full story @Frankie. My understanding is that we have $2.5m in escrow which will be released to the project when the first set of conditions are met at which point we'll own 20% of the project. I don't know what will happen if we decide that the first set of conditions will never be met. I presume we will get our $2.5m back and we'll walk away from the project all together.

Absolutely @Bannor. It's completely feasible that the port has been rented out for use by another company which would explain the activity we have seen. They'll likely have to shut up shop soon though if this is the case. :-)

@tomcat:
===[
‘they’ are working under the protection of ‘our’ jrp... ‘our’ cash in the escrow account... waiting for ‘us’ to get the railway licenses and bank creditor arrangements completed...
]===

So you think they are working on the promise of our $2.5m being released? I suppose they could be and this is the reason why it had to be escrowed. If the preconditions are never met and it doesn't get released then I suppose they'll have the revenue and resulting profit from shipping the first batch of iron ore.

Good point @Barksy about the capesize vessel likely being used by others too. In the light of that there might only be 1 or 2 handymax vessels full of iron ore ready to load up the ship when it arrives, the rest being from others further up the Amazon.

@tomcat. Sounds about right re the Handymax vessels. Stop, fill from the several barges, go.

Thanks @Barksy. The images on myshiptracking are from google (where it's easier to zoom in further). I think you are right about them being covered with solid shutters/hatches. I thought you were suggesting tarpaulin which is why I questioned.

Typical size of Capesize: 150-400kt: http://maritime-connector.com/wiki/capesize/
Typical size of Handymax: 35-50kt: http://maritime-connector.com/wiki/handymax/

I don't know the capacity of the barges. I estimated of 5-10kt, but it would be useful to get a better estimate from photos.

Going with the above: About 4-10 barges per handymax, and about 3-10 handymax's per capesize. In the absence of better information I'm going with 7 barges per handymax and 7 handymax's per capesize.

In fact has anyone found a good (ideally a photo from the side) image of these types of barges? Not something similar, the actual barges moving around. There are several of them. Tourist photos?

@Barksy. What evidence do you have that the ore is stored under a cover on the barge?

@Barksy - any chance you can post to the main thread, not this one (as I have). When it fragments it makes it much harder to find earlier supporting information - of course if this is done on purpose (I doubt it!) carry on. :-)

And by "we" I mean "they", we currently own 0%.

On the colour of the barge, assuming it isn't an artefact of the light, they are either different barges, or the same barges in a different state, either way it indicates activity at the port. Whether the activity is related to the iron ore is anybody's guess, but it seems likely if they want to meet the target of first *shipment* by end of this month, not first load of a *barge*, it'll be moving dry or wet ore out to handymax vessels which will then sail down the Amazon to load cape size vessels. @$90/kg (Approximate current January 2020 futures prices for 62% Fe concentrates) and a ship capacity of 150-400kt we might be talking $13m to $36m in revenue sometime this month if the contract completes FOB, i.e. when it sets sail.

I'm not sure why it took me this long to conclude this. Shared research is very useful. Thanks for encouraging it @Frankie :-)

(and yes, there is a possibility we haven't even started to load barges yet, especially since I could have sworn @Kiran indicated this aspect of the operation wouldn't *start* until our $2.5m had been released.)

Ob.

Good spot re the pipe @Masterbaker . Could it be that they are (planning) to load the barges via the wet method? Perhaps they were forced down that route due to the disrepair of the port not wanting to risk another collapse until fully repaired?

Or perhaps more likely - conveyor belts on to trucks, trucks to the barge, tip in. Clearly this isn't ideal but the port is what it is - currently! @Kiran? What's the plan and is it in motion?

Blimey @tomcat - I don't think we'll be running at 16kt/hr for many years! Even when the port has had US$61 million spent on rehabilitation we'll only be looking at an average load rate at "Full production by 2024 of 5.3 million tonnes ("Mt") of iron ore per annum." of:

5300kt/yr = 0.6kt/hr

For the first 2 years we are looking at an *average* load rate of something around an order of magnitude less:

1390kt / 2yr = 80t/hr

which could very well be a buckets and spades job! Lol. (trucks rather than conveyor belts)

@tomcat - if you want to see the bing links you have to use a computer/laptop - not sure why they don't work on mobiles.

When the handymax is making the journey to the capesize vessel it would make sense for the barges to continue to be loaded and is presumably the reason why there are several barges nearby a couple of 100m to the south. e.g.:

2019-11-30
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=-0.05821&lng=-51.19224&zoom=16&time=2019-11-30&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

I wonder if @Kiran is in a position to confirm what we might have just deduced? Question is, why didn't he explain this was the plan in the various interviews, leaving us to draw the dots?

I suppose it is a straight-forward conclusion (in hindsight!) that if:

===[
The sale of approximately of 1.39 million tonnes ("Mt") of stockpiles currently held at the port owned by Amapá. Planned shipment of stockpile commencing in December 2019.
]===

and

===[
Amapá will begin shipping of the iron ore at stockpile as soon as possible. Based Amapá' s current understandings this is targeted to start by the end of 2019 and take between 18 to 24 months to ship.
]===

and a capesize vessel is of the order of 150-400kt then in order to meet the December 2019 shipment date you are going to have to start loading it [18m to 24m] / (1390 / [150 to 400]) = 2 to 7 months before then! :-)

Ob.

So it could be that the reason the barge appears to change colour from white to blue is because there are different coloured barges :-)

https://binged.it/2OY7Ydz

@tomcat - I don't know where you mean. It's easy to share bing images. Just click the share button.

Just so you know @Barksy, the port image from bing is from a different day.