Member Info for observer842

I guess it depends on if it is a public hearing or not. You may still have to register though. The recovery plan (appears) to be public access. Has some very interesting points. But I warn you now, it might be a pain to read if you don't speak Portuguese and can't squint for the appendix! lol.

yes - go back a few pages and it tells you how. (remove the rogue space)

Did you ever get to read the recovery plan @tomcat?

https://www.jusbrasil.com.br/diarios/293628254/trt-8-judiciario-16-04-2020-pg-497

Not true @mullins: From your article "Shares in a qualifying company listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM)". Not all AIM share qualify.

This article was more informative:

"How to use Aim shares to guard against inheritance tax risk" (February 21, 2019)
https://www.moneyobserver.com/how-to-use-aim-shares-to-guard-against-inheritance-tax-risk

Cheers for the clarification @Dallas.

Unlike our other assets, you can only really get exposure to Amapa on stock markets via us - which sort of makes us a private equity company. i.e. we have equity in a company that is not publicly listed.

"Macarthur Minerals buoyed by share spike for major shareholder Cadence Minerals on iron ore deal" (16 Apr 2020)
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/917352/macarthur-minerals-buoyed-by-share-spike-for-major-shareholder-cadence-minerals-on-iron-ore-deal-917352.html
===[
In a new research note on Cadence, WH Ireland states: “An easy to ship stockpile of 1.4Mt of 62% iron ore would sell for a current SPOT price of $84/t. Taking in re-handling and port costs (WHIe) of $10/t and ocean freight estimate of $30/t leaves an operating margin of nearly $45/t of iron ore shipped.”

This is “a healthy margin which could be used to pay senior bank creditors (once agreement has been reached) and complete a feasibility study into the reopening of the Amapá mine and pay for some of the new infrastructure required”.
]===

Anyone got any ideas where that $30/t comes from? Seems quite high to me. If we are shipping to China, then presumably it's the C14 index which appears to have a round voyage of 80-90 days:

"Baltic Exchange to implement new capesize vessel routes" (29 April 2014)
https://www.seanews.com.tr/baltic-exchange-to-implement-new-capesize-vessel-description--amp-routes/126835/
===[
C14
Delivery Qingdao spot or retroactive up to a maximum 15 days after sailing from Qingdao, round voyage via Brazil, redelivery China-Japan range, duration 80-90 days. Basis the Baltic Capesize 2014 vessel. 5% total commission.
]===

Capesize is 180,000t so WHI appear to be estimating earnings per day at:

180,000t * $30 / 90 days = $60,000

Now I do remember seeing an article in the summer suggesting a spike to that. Lets see if I can find it:

"Bulk Freight Shipping Rates Soar as Vale Resumes Iron Ore Exports" (July 18, 2019)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bulk-freight-shipping-rates-soar-as-vale-resumes-iron-ore-exports-11563466597
===[
A broker in Singapore said capesize vessels, the biggest dry-bulk ships, now go for more than $30,000 a day on the Brazil-to-China voyage, up from less than $10,000 a day in recent months. Depending on the route, some of the biggest vessels can command up to $60,000 a day, he said.
]===

However, I believe using that figure is vastly overcautious at this time. For example:

"BDI plunges to four-year low, capesize vessels hardest hit" (Feb 05, 2020)
https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/dry-cargo/bdi-plunges-four-year-low-capesize-vessels-hardest-hit
===[
The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) indicated average earnings of $3,973 a day on 31 January for capesize vessel. Specifically, rates for C10 Pacific RV were at just $1,471 a day, C14 China-Brazil RV at $2,427 and C8 transatlantic RV at $7,465 a day.
]===

The latest figures I can find are these:

"17 April 2020"
https://thebalticbriefing.com/weekly-dry-report/
===[
The Atlantic C8 stands at $10,075 to the Pacific C10 at $8,500.
]===

I don't know what C14 is - but I doubt very much it's $60,000. Any ideas?

Ob.

@isb1974. I suggest you look back through my posts for detailed analysis of the amapa project. It's not all about the iron ore prices which make it a tremendous prospect, it's also about the BRL : USD exchange rate amongst other things.

Perhaps someone has diligently being arranging for those words to be deleted @Dallas? Oh, what's that? LSE is playing up again? Lol.

Shush. What's wrong with you people. Lol.

LTH's: How about no one mention what was conspicuous by its absence until we have that 20% in the bag eh? If that's not too much to ask? Lol. Might also explain why no director purchases at this time. ;-) Seriously. shussssssh.

Lol @Barksy. You were cut short on the most interesting paragraph:

"Macarthur Minerals buoyed by share spike for major shareholder Cadence Minerals on iron ore deal" (16 Apr 2020)
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/917352/macarthur-minerals-buoyed-by-share-spike-for-major-shareholder-cadence-minerals-on-iron-ore-deal-917352.html
===[
In a new research note on Cadence, WH Ireland states: “An easy to ship stockpile of 1.4Mt of 62% iron ore would sell for a current SPOT price of $84/t. Taking in re-handling and port costs (WHIe) of $10/t and ocean freight estimate of $30/t leaves an operating margin of nearly $45/t of iron ore shipped.”

This is “a healthy margin which could be used to pay senior bank creditors (once agreement has been reached) and complete a feasibility study into the reopening of the Amapá mine and pay for some of the new infrastructure required”.
]===

I suggest those looking in here for the first time take a read of the most recent WHI report. We could be talking a (derisked!) share price of pounds. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow...

" In addition, the Court has requested that the secured bank creditors reach an agreement with the JV Partners and DEV within 60 days or the Court might rule on the annulment of the Bank Liens and consider the banks as unsecured creditors. As unsecured creditors, the bank's credit will be subject to restructuring plan limits and discounts and be paid from free cash flow from DEV, which may be over fifteen years."

I'm getting the impression the court is as fed up as we are with the delays. Is that a hardball I see them brandishing? :-)))

Meanwhile:
Iron ore > $80/t :-))
USD:BRL 5.2 :-)))

Indeed @tomcat! I'm watching. We could be days away from conclusion...

I'm reasonably certain that court case would have been a block to us getting our 20% @tomcat one way or another. So it's great news it's now settled IMHO. RNS worthy? Perhaps, perhaps not. Probably not on balance.

Did you understand why I asked the question I asked yesterday? BCN board has the answer. :-)

Fingers crossed!

Oh it does, just no longer the primary meaning. LoL.

Me @Frankie? Never. Though I'm obfuscating myself as I don't think Tommy Tanks means what I thought it meant! ;-) LoL.

Fortunately we have a few not-so secret weapons which help to obfuscate the signal within the noise :-)