Member Info for observer842

Looks like they've set up pre-emption rights. Section 15 of the Memorandum and Articles of Association

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/11349694/filing-history

@tomcat Are you referring to the changing of name from "ordinary shares" to "bacanora shares" and "Ganfeng shares"? I have no theories - for a change! What's yours?

@fpvone: "Something will catch cadence eye". Yes Amapa iron ore project in Brazil. It's no secret if they pull that off (imminently so we are led to believe) it'll be a company defining multi-bagger if iron ore prices are as they are at the moment...

@MBW - I can't speak for everyone, but it helps me to explore the what if's today, so I'm prepared if they happen tomorrow! ;-) You may have seen my post on 07 Mar 2021 17:30 exploring the what if's on Sonora expansion. In summary, my estimate of the NPV8 of the Sonora project (given the assumptions in the BFS) to KDNC is that if they increase total production over the 19 years (it'll be longer in practice) the it could increase from the current estimate of $32.5m into the $100's of millions.

1. $32.5m - 603kt LCE (17.5ktpa 4 years, 35ktpa 15 years)
2. $97.2m - 890kt LCE (20ktpa 2 years, 50ktpa 17 years)
3. $317.7m - 1,590kt LCE (20ktpa 2 years, 50ktpa 3 years, 100 ktpa 14 years)
4. $641.7m - 2,390kt LCE (20ktpa 2 years, 50ktpa 3 years, 100 ktpa 6 years, 200ktpa 8 years)

I encourage this to be challenged - both the assumptions behind it and the calculations. As it stands I'd say the most likely scenario which we should be factoring in today (as the CEO of BCN has said it's currently their plan!) is scenario 2, but I know many are expecting much, much more from Sonora :-)))

Ob.

Indeed @Barksy - but in hindsight we were lucky that BCN and EMH delayed so much. You saw what happened to those a little ahead of us that went to the wall (Nemaska - which we held shares in at one point I think!). Patience was required, though admittedly for BCN, they could probably have got their funding away first time if they hadn't been so damn slow! LoL.

Fingers crossed we get that 20% signed off, round about the time of first shipping as @Kiran eluded to in one of his interviews if I recall correctly. It's imminent ;-)

Ob.

"Start small aiming to become a small cap and maybe more?"

Yes, but you need a vision, and you need visionaries to help spell it out. There will be many on here who are excited about what this company can become if we sign off the Amapa deal, I'm one of them. We've been through the possibilities over the years. It's what encouraged many here to continue to add when the company was on its knees in the 3p's...

Ob.

“I hope the value of your house decreases so that I can buy it”?

My sentiment is that I hope this share price goes up, but I'm OK with it going down as I believe we won't place before news. If it goes up I'll derisk at some point, if it goes down (or stays significantly below whatever I deem fair value) I will add more.

LoL @MBW. I wrote that before seeing your post. I know some can't handle gazing a year or two into the future! AIM is full of short-termists. ;-)

Ob.

Additionally, it might go without saying for some, but I'm talking about the future, the potential future worth of KDNC being well into the pounds if all goes well. As to the present, if the risked contributions of everything we own and owe (now practically zero) is summed together my take is that we should be well into the 20's, though below 20 suits me fine as I'm able to continue to top up :-))))

Ob.

Also, it might be worth reiterating that our holding in EMH, should we choose to sell it, currently covers more than the $24m of project equity, whatever that is (!), mentioned on page 10:

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Corporate-Presentation-KDNC-JAN-2021-PUBLIC-1.pdf

Fancy owning 49% of a potentially billion dollar project, and (potentially - we don't know the full terms!) with minimal dilution... :-))))

Iron ore prices recovering on DCE overnight.

All IMHO, DYOR.

I said:
===[
Although the shipping appears to be currently scheduled to start at the end of this month, and the creditor settlement can happen at ANY time, I think it is quite possible, in fact perhaps quite likely that the two are now related. Although the banks were against shipping, now that it has been judged that shipping can happen, if I were them I wouldn't want to finalise until DEV have conclusively demonstrated their ability to ship the ore.

As I said the deal could land at any time, but I think it's now more likely that it'll finalise sometime between the first shipment starting to be loaded and shortly after it leaving harbour. Just my own humble opinion of course. :-)
]===

and then I said:

===[
Feels like an incredible risk to reward opportunity here. More shares for me today. :-))) News remains imminent in my view ;-)
]===

;-)

Indeed @EyeGuy. Feels like an incredible risk to reward opportunity here. More shares for me today. :-))) News remains imminent in my view ;-)

LoL. What, you mean like KDNC itself!? (funds will be required for the Amapa iron ore project which will be company making if it goes through.) ;-)

Thanks for sharing @Rpks. He seems confident. 8.1% holding. :-)

https://www.europeanmet.com/capital-and-shareholders/

Good point @EyeGuy. The £213.69k@16.375 sell equates to 1.3m shares and if the remaining $250m of CLN has been converted @12p this is 1.5m shares, which would facilitate that. But I'd say it's mostly irrelevant since unless I've missed a holding notification the (ex) CLN holder owns more than 5% of the company so has plenty to sell should they choose to as this equates to more than 7.4m shares (148,349,098 * 5%). But perhaps it was another (ex) CLN holder other than TTF? As you say, we'll have to see! Either way, with rising EMH this has afforded a great buying opportunity - assuming they don't know something we don't! ;-)

Indeed @EyeGuy. For information I believe @Kiran noted at the AGM in January that we only had $250k (£180k) outstanding on the CLN, which is scheduled to be fully repaid by April this year. Also, we are usually notified if the CLN is converted to shares, but we aren't notified if it is redeemed instead. That's not to say that the £213.69k@16.375 wasn't a sell of previously converted shares, but sadly looks more like a distressed sale to me given the price and single trade. But I could be wrong - we might see a TR-1 this week from Trafalgar Trading Fund Inc if they have dropped below 5% from their previously reported 5.99%:

"TR-1: Standard form for notification of major holdings" (02 June 2020)
http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=311428201369258289

Ob.

@EyeGuy: "the shipping is not related to the creditor settlement.". In general yes, but in practice?

Although the shipping appears to be currently scheduled to start at the end of this month, and the creditor settlement can happen at ANY time, I think it is quite possible, in fact perhaps quite likely that the two are now related. Although the banks were against shipping, now that it has been judged that shipping can happen, if I were them I wouldn't want to finalise until DEV have conclusively demonstrated their ability to ship the ore.

As I said the deal could land at any time, but I think it's now more likely that it'll finalise sometime between the first shipment starting to be loaded and shortly after it leaving harbour. Just my own humble opinion of course. :-)

I'd prefer if I were wrong and it actually finalised on Friday with an RNS first thing tomorrow morning! :-))))

A "Conclusions for Dispatch" was issued on Friday, which could be a step in the right direction along the path towards finalisation...

Ob.

Indeed @nookie. It could be that the £213.69k@16.375 is still being offloaded from the other day which could have been initiated before the start of the recent rise in EMH. Unlucky for them, lucky for those taking it off their hands - assuming EMH doesn't crash! It reassures me that AIM can be so crazy, it's how fortunes are made. Crazy on the downside, crazy on the upside too. Crazy in the middle for good measure :-))) We should be WELL into the 20's on pretty much any reasonable measure of risk to reward. ;-)

Indeed @jimb2. The concept of "super power" is very interesting, and a bit mind blowing when you start to realise the consequences...

https://www.rethinkx.com/energy

I wouldn't be so sure about that...