Member Info for OAPK20

Think ARB Energy llc might be a bit busy just now. Page 45onwards

https://oilgas.ogm.utah.gov/wellfiles/019/4301915048.pdf

I’m used to the abuse so here goes.

HIGH 3.40 / LOW 3.041 / VWAP 3.16 / CLOSE 3.25

5th consecutive close above 3.00p (3.25, +1.6%). Overhang clearance robust. Close +2.85% above VWAP (Strong above) on Neutral base

VWAP +2.85% with a Neutral session close (58.22%) means the

session traded predominantly below VWAP and rebounded into close.

1) BASE CASE (55%): Consolidation 3.00–3.40 pending catalyst.

2) COUNTER-CASE (30%): VWAP MIXED + sell-flagged dominance + close-low intraday tape = exhaustion. Reversion toward 3.00p / 2.90p stack.

3) BULL CASE (15%): RNS imminent. Compression resolves higher.

CONFIRMATION TRIGGERS (base → bull):

• Next close ≥3.30p with VWAP test CONFIRMED (base ≥2 + close above VWAP)

• Spread compresses <6%

• RV >100% with confirmed buy block ≥150k

INVALIDATION TRIGGERS (base → bear):

• Close below 3.00p (overhang Rejected)

• Loss of 3.10p (SCAP bid)

• Sell block ≥200k repeat with no buy-block response

• Next session VWAP FAILED with base ≥2

The close at 3.25 implies post-16:27 auction or late-session lift

not represented in the supplied continuous tape — without an auction flag this cannot be classified as auction-driven, but the gap between last continuous print (3.1015 at 16:27) and close (3.25) is +14.8% worth scrutinising.

Best Intercept

9.7m @ 0.74% Cu and 4.46g/t Ag

including: 2.2m @ 1.05% Cu 3.6m @ 0.98% Cu and 6.22g/t Ag

from only 25.2m depth.

For an open-pit copper project what matters is not ultra-high grades. Instead shallow depth, continuity, mineable width, strip ratio are usually more important. These intercepts remain very shallow and support that.

Comparison vs 29/04 Results - 29 April produced some stronger headline grades:

* 5.0m @ 1.20% Cu

* 3.7m @ 1.76% Cu

* 7.0m @ 1.06% Cu

The 2 June results are slightly lower grade overall. However the Width improved.

The market often values: 10m @ 0.7% more than 2m @ 2% if the project is targeting open pit economics.

The new holes continue to demonstrate scale and continuity rather than isolated high-grade pockets.

Bullish Catalysts:

1. More assays every 3–5 weeks

2. Metallurgical results

3. Resource estimate in Q3

4. Confirmation of tonnage scale

5. Potential economics of initial mine

Risks:

1. Copper grades trend lower in future holes

2. Resource smaller than expected

3. September JORC disappoints on tonnage

4. Funding required before DFS stage

The market is no longer asking: “Is there copper?”

The market is increasingly asking: “How much copper is there?”

Not a “company-making” drill result. But exactly the type of result you want to see two to three months before a maiden resource estimate.

Not because the assays are exceptional. Because each assay batch continues to reduce geological risk ahead of the maiden resource.

PS - Maybe ask the sellers why they are dumping.

Active Accumulation → Passive Base (third single-day reversal). Sell blocks 356,385 vs buy blocks 225,000 = 1.58:1 sell dominance.

Previous day RV 420% with buy block dominance failed to hold one session. Sell blocks dominate at lower prices, close at session low, VWAP Strong below, bid ladder stepping down, third single-day reversal in 4 sessions.

Note recurring pattern: positive trigger (News D15, accumulation spike D17) followed by single-day reversal — pattern suggests pre-event positioning being unwound, not genuine demand. Catalyst Cost component at max remains binding constraint.

Morocco doing the dirty. No wonder there’s hesitation here

30 Mar 2026 07:00

RNS Number : 5509Y

Emmerson PLC

30 March 2026

Emmerson PLC / Ticker: EML / Index: AIM / Sector: Mining

30 March 2026

Emmerson PLC ("Emmerson" or the "Company")

Arbitration Memorial Submission

Emmerson PLC, the Moroccan focused potash development company, is pleased to provide an update on progress relating to its arbitration process against the Kingdom of Morocco.

Further to the update provided in January 2026, Emmerson advises that its legal representatives, Boies Schiller Flexner LLP, have submitted its Memorial in accordance with the timetable set out by the arbitration panel.

The Memorial outlines the Company's case in full, including legal arguments and supporting evidence. This included a claim for damages amounting to US$1.215bn net of local taxes and including interest.

The Company was at an advanced stage of development at the time of Morocco's breaches of its obligations under the United Kingdom-Morocco Bilateral Investment Treaty and has employed expert quantum consultants to determine the claim value. This rigorous valuation process was based on studies published by the Company, including discounted cash flow analyses, in conjunction with the consultants' own experience and expertise in assessing such matters.

With the Memorial successfully submitted on time, the arbitration now moves to the next phase where Morocco will have an opportunity to respond in several months' time.

The Company will provide further updates as necessary and as far as practicable.

Graham Clarke, CEO of Emmerson PLC commented:

"The submission of the Memorial is a significant step in the arbitration process and I would like to thank the team for all the work that has been put into the submission"

Background

On 30 April 2025, the Company's direct and indirect subsidiaries Khemisset UK Ltd. and Potasse de Khemisset S.A. (the "Claimants") filed a Request for Arbitration ("RFA") with the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes ("ICSID"). The ICSID Secretary-General registered the RFA on 23 May 2025.

The Claimants seek compensation for the loss and damage they sustained as a result of Morocco's breaches of its obligations under the Agreement between the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the Kingdom of Morocco for the Promotion and Protection of Investments (the "BIT"), including (i) Morocco's expropriation of the Project in violation of Article 6(1) of the BIT, and (ii) Morocco's breach of its obligations to accord the Claimants fair and equitable treatment, to provide full protection and security to the Claimants and their investments, and to refrain from impairing the Claimants' investments by discriminatory measures under Article 2(2) of the BIT.

There can be no certainty as to the outcome of the Company's treaty claims.

What we need, Is the founder and chairman of the Moroccan Miners Association with immense acumen and local expertise to make a video explaining and showing exactly what they’ve got on the ground and the CEO to get it out there and prove to investors what CMRS have.

Might be a bit more believable, and attractive to those watching and waiting. How hard is it to do that?

750k sell block at session low + 270k buy block earlier + reach to 2.90 with rapid retreat = controlled supplier offloading. Pattern matches placing- participant exit at par-to-premium pricing. Spike to 2.90 created opportunity for placing announcement at premium discount.

Investinglive

Commodities Adam Button 02/06/2026 | 19:08 GMT+1

Copper prices continue to ratchet higher as the tightness in the market that's been predicted for years begins to bite.

I've been writing for years that copper is the simplest investment thesis anywhere and it continues to play out according to the script. There simply isn't enough to meet the coming demand for AI and energy. Moreover, it takes over a decade to build a mine and the pipeline is increasingly dry. That means that any supply shortages can only be fixed by higher prices and -- eventually -- substitution with aluminum in low-value uses. Front month US copper is trading at $6.65 today, which is within striking distance of last month's record high.

It's worth noting that there is a premium in US copper due to US tariffs policies. In London, three-month copper is at $13,600/tonne so that puts the premium at about 6%. The US will decide on tariffs on copper imports at the end of July and there is some front-running of it.

Citi has flipped bullish on copper and now says that uncertainty over US tariffs and hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by summer will push copper prices higher. They see $15,000/tonne within a year.

“We anticipate further strategic ambiguity from US policymakers rather than a definitive announcement of a tariff and believe that the administration will not impose a refined copper tariff but will avoid stating this definitively to maximize incentives to maintain excess copper inventory in the US,” Citi analysts wrote.

Goldman Sachs on Monday raised their year-end copper price target to $13,735 per metric ton from $12,465 previously.

At the dawn of the Iran war, there were fears that high oil prices and angst would lead to decreased demand for copper but that hasn't happened yet.

A risk for copper at the moment is sulphur, with a large part of global supplies shipped through Hormuz and currently blocked. It's critical in producing copper and without it, prices are rapidly rising and could eventually slow mine production.

Morgan Stanley also sees $15,000 copper:

"Copper is already trading near all-time highs, and net longs on COMEX are at a record level. However, with supply disruptions rising, US imports expected to stay strong for now and signs that China is restocking on dips, any pullbacks in copper are likely to be short-lived in our view. The US tariff decision remains key, but the current COMEX-LME spread should be attracting metal. A decision to raise tariffs could accelerate the move higher."

Watch the video. GOLD 0.7g p/t at surface from samples collected from drill pads.

FDR are excited for a reason. LSE might delete this again like last time. For what reason who knows.

https://www.itechminerals.com.au/investorarticles/drilling-commenced-at-reynolds-range-gold-antimony-projects/

@TaviCosta

There is nothing more technically bullish than a 40-year resistance level turning into major support.

That is exactly where gold miners sit today.

Act accordingly.

“ with both companies seeking to grow their ​share of ​the ​booming obesity drug ‌market—expected by analysts to reach $150 billion annually in the next decade”

Only a matter of time.

May 22 (Reuters) - The European Medicines Agency recommended approval ‌for Novo Nordisk's weight-loss pill ‌Wegovy, the regulator said on Friday, ​clearing its path to become the first oral weight-loss drug in Europe, ahead of ‌U.S. rival ⁠Eli Lilly.

The recommendation comes as competition between Novo ⁠and Lilly intensifies, with both companies seeking to grow their ​share of ​the ​booming obesity drug ‌market—expected by analysts to reach $150 billion annually in the next decade—by expanding into oral treatments.

Novo launched the pill in the ‌United States earlier ​this year after ​winning ​FDA approval, giving it ‌an early start. ​Lilly's weight-loss ​pill, Foundayo, was launched in April following its U.S. ​approval.

(Reporting ‌by Kunal Das and Puyaan ​Singh in Bengaluru; Editing ​by Tasim Zahid)

Then it’s Eli Lilly’s Foundayo next.

Need a CEO like a Sam Garrett or a Mike Schwarz.

SCAP | 2.50 | 75,000 | 2.80 | 75,000

WINS | 2.50 | 75,000 | 2.80 | 75,000

SING | 2.50 | 75,000 | 3.00 | 75,000

PEEL | 2.50 | 75,000 | 3.00 | 75,000

CANA | 2.50 | 75,000 | 3.00 | 75,000

@zerohedge

Copper is inching closer to its mid-May all-time high of $14,153 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, trading around $13,832 on Tuesday morning, as Goldman raised its year-end price targets and HSBC warned that commodities face a "super-squeeze" with the Hormuz maritime chokepoint still largely shuttered in early June.

Let's begin with HSBC analysts, who wrote in a note to clients that "metal prices are generally in an upswing, driven by supply disruptions for some commodities due to the Middle East conflict and strong structural demand."

They warned that commodities were facing a "super-squeeze" with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.

HSBC's note comes after Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham told clients Monday that the core issue with copper markets right now is supply:

Year-to-date data does suggest that supply recovery from previous disruption events has trailed our expectations. Accordingly, we lower our 2026 global mine supply forecast by 350kt, equivalent to ~1.5% of global mine supply, including ~200kt less from Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC) combined, with neither returning to full capacity until 2028.

At the same time, she said stronger-than-expected US copper imports in the first half of 2026 are tightening the ex-US market:

Furthermore, US copper imports in H1 2026 have exceeded our previous forecast, tightening the ex-US balance. As a result, we now expect US inventory to build by 900kt in 2026 (vs. 550kt previously), even as our base case remains that no copper tariff will be announced this year.

The combination of soft mine supply, US stockpiling, tariff uncertainty, and long-term demand tied to AI buildout and grid-upgrade themes prompted Waltham to upgrade her end-of-year 2026 and 2027 copper price forecasts:

We raise our end-2026/average 2027 LME copper forecasts to $13,735/$13,800 from $12,465/$12,150 previously (vs. forwards at $13,630/$13,610).

7.89 - 7.93

BASE CASE (50%): Distribution at structural level. Cumulative supply release across Days 12-14 (~12m shares at 2.50-2.70p band) without identifiable buy-block absorption. 2.50p Fail Level under sustained pressure; breach probability elevated within 5 sessions.

COUNTER-CASE (50%): Absorption at structural level. Each session's close above sell-block price indicates passive bid absorbing supply; FC-EWT improvement (22 vs 35) confirms fundamental risk not deteriorating; Artemisa North geological confirmation supports catalyst-driven recovery on assay results.

PROBABILITY SPLIT: 50/50 — balanced pending Day 15 confirmation/ invalidation.

CONFIRMATION TRIGGER (bull): close >2.66p with buy block ≥200k / RNS DTR notification of new holder. (TR1already after hours today from Spreadex)

INVALIDATION TRIGGER (bear): close <2.50p = compound (Fail Level + overhang clearance failure simultaneously).

BASE CASE (45%): Genuine expansion confirmed. Overhang cleared mechanically, Next 3-5 sessions hold close above 2.50p, RV remains 80–120%, signal MPAL-015 validates. Catalyst delivery extends move.

COUNTER-CASE (45%): Range break finds supply at 2.80–2.90p, sells back. Late 552k sell @ 2.535p indicates supply present on weakness. FC-EWT High probability window favours placing announcement above 2.50p; tape strength facilitates placing execution.

SPECULATIVE LAYER (10%): Acquisition / partnership announcement clears FC-EWT risk and triggers genuine expansion. No evidence supports this — excluded from base/counter weighting.

CONFIRMATION TRIGGER (Base): 3 consecutive closes above 2.50p AND no placing announcement within 10 sessions.

CONFIRMATION TRIGGER (Counter): Placing announcement within 10 sessions OR close below 2.50p next session

1) BASE CASE (50%): Overhang clearance holds; consolidation 2.90–3.20 pending catalyst. No further upside without news.

2) COUNTER-CASE (35%): Failed clearance — close below 3.00p in next 1–2 sessions reclassifies to Rejected OIT. Confirmed sell blocks become the binding signal. Reversion toward 2.70 MM bid stack.

3) BULL CASE (15%): Drilling RNS lands. Gap above 3.20. Genuine expansion regime; warrant gravity escape confirmed.

CONFIRMATION TRIGGERS (base → bull):

• Next close ≥3.10p on tape with UNK% <30%

• Confirmed buy block ≥200k appears

• RNS catalyst (drilling commencement / assays)

INVALIDATION TRIGGERS (base → bear):

• Close below 3.00p (Rejected OIT)

• Sell block ≥250k with no buy-block response next session

• Loss of 2.90p MM bid stack

• Loss of 2.20p Fail Level

GSCU-019 logged the two 2.60p unknown blocks on 01/06:

13:04:00 | 6,000,000 @ 2.60

15:06:00 | 3,500,000 @ 2.60

Combined: 9,500,000 shares

Spreadex notification: threshold crossed 01/06/2026.

Position increase: 8,083,487 shares.

The Spreadex increase (8.08m) is consistent in MAGNITUDE and DATE with the 01/06 unknown blocks (9.5m). The shares are held via direct voting rights (1.94%) and CFD financial instruments (1.74%) — the CFD component is likely client positions held synthetically by Spreadex, NOT proprietary inventory. Anchored evidence: threshold- crossing date 01/06 matches unknown block timestamps; size broadly aligns within margin.

GSCU-019 PARTIAL VALIDATION (post-close evidence):

- Original signal predicted: "RNS DTR notification within 5 sessions" as validation trigger.

- RNS DTR notification received 2 sessions after signal logged.

- However: Spreadex is a SPREAD BETTING / CFD provider. The 3.67% holding is largely CLIENT POSITIONS held synthetically, NOT a strategic institutional accumulator. The "voting rights through financial instruments" component (1.74%, ~13.4m shares) represents retail client CFD exposure.

- This re-frames the 01/06 unknown blocks: likely Spreadex hedging inflow against client CFD demand surge — i.e. RETAIL SPREAD BETTING / CFD INTEREST is the driver, not institutional accumulation.