Member Info for nutsy2012

Well we're almost there and I honestly think the 50/50 CoS is more like 70/30 now but the proof will be in the flow rates. I topped up twice this week taking my holding 1.65m. I think the oil will flow, I think it will be commercial and I think we are looking at around the 160-180 bopd mark but only time will tell. Let's hope I've been right to stick with 88E for the last two years without selling any. GLA

So here is my attempt to put a potential share price on 88E based on the Armstrong Deal. That deal as I recall was $400m for a 25% stake in a 500m barrel discovery so 100% would have been $1.6bn. The Oil Price at the time of that deal was around $45 I believe (c65% lower than today). If we assume that 88E have 3bn barrels and we replicate the figures from the Armstrong deal then 88E has a 6 times greater find and therefore $400m x 6 =$2.4bn for a 25% stake which then multiplies up in to a $9.6bn value for 100%. Divide this by the 5bn shares in issue and I get �1.92 as a share price with no adjustment made for the 65% higher Oil price....

Just picked 162,207 at 2.99p on the back of this latest development... Looking good for my 10p target.

Clearly there must be something in the offing otherwise they simply wouldn't start building a team, paid or unpaid....IMHO I expect a spike to 10p on announcement of a deal, particularly as you say with so few shares in issue.

Been watching from the sidelines for a while and finally bought in here today ; only 2.5k worth of shares at 2.75p but I see an excellent potential return here (10p+ on any significant news) with some patience and a risk worth taking. I'd be surprised if they didn't secure an acquisition of some kind before the deadline but we should take nothing for granted. GLA

Just looked on again on this one and I genuinely cannot believe the outcome. ... I know it's not quite over but I can't see them coming back from this. ... Gutted for everybody who lost their hard earned cash. Try and stay positive and cone back stronger and wiser.

Not holding these but considering a 2.5k punt with profits from elsewhere on a 3 year look forward. I do see some value here for the long term but I don't understand why all of their assets are high risk. As a bod they should be building a more balanced portfolio but that said I think the Ghana asset will eventually come good for them which will raise the sp considerably from today's new low. I will look to get in around the 2p mark and hold for 10p in around 3 years.

Strategic reviews are pretty standard for new CEOs to undertake. Can't help thinking this drop is an over reaction and should recover to 550p soon. Good one for the traders unfortunately. ...

Just as I predicted it's tanking on no volume and it's not currently tradeable. My advice of yesterday holds true. Once it gets to sub 1p it MAY be worth a gamble using PROFITS YOU'VE MADE ELSEWHERE (and NOT by selling other stocks you have, taking out a T20 or borrowing money from your gran!!!). This one is just too risky IMHO but DYOR and make your own decision. You may just get lucky but my money is on this going under and vultures picking up the pieces for pennies....

Buys v Sells may look like this heading one way but it's the value of those trades ; they're peanuts.. If this is to climb back over 4p like many believe then there needs to be sustained buying in much larger chunks. A few hundred quid here and there will do nothing to the SP.... Wake up and smell the Starbucks as they say... GLA

Firstly I need to say that I do not hold SHFT but I see this now as an out and out gamble. I am a Banker (boo hiss etc... yep heard it all before!!) but interestingly I used to work in Mergers and Acquisitions and Debt for Equity swaps during the financial crisis and therefore speak from some position of knowledge. My genuine opinion here is that there is only around a 10% chance of SHFT being bailed out on the basis that from a Credit Risk perspective it just isn't worth saving. The Company simply isn't big enough. It's a bit like spending £800 to fix an engine problem on a £1,000 car....Is it actually worth it? Standard Chartered will look at this on a risk v return basis ONLY. There will be NO sentiment on their part WHATSOEVER so don't kid yourself there will be. My best advice here is that IF this stock goes down to sub 1p then I would consider putting 2k of my PROFIT from other shares into it as a pure speculative gamble but otherwise I suggest you leave well alone and certainly don't use the mortgage money or take out a T20... GLA

I will wait until Monday morning before deciding whether to buy in or not as I can see this dropping around 10% if no RNS comes out at 7am.... Good luck to you fundamentalanalysis....fortune favours the brave and I sincerely hope it quadruples for you...

Also FWIW I doubt ARMS will ever see a penny of the $178m from Roeslani....

When first we practice to deceive. I'm surprised the local fire brigade isn't on standby with all the smoke and mirrors going on here...!! Now let's be perfectly blunt - NOBODY on here has the slighest clue how this will pan out so you pays your money and you takes your choice. My personal strategy here is to use the £3k I made on QPP on the way back up to take a gamble here (and it IS an outright gamble) but ultimately I am of the opinion that the vote will go the same way as the Scottish Referendum. The reason I think this is that I'm a Banker who used to work in Mergers & Acquisitions and worked on debt for equity swaps during the financial crisis and therefore I flatter myself that I know how Rothschilds will think. Banks and the markets in general loathe uncertainty with a passion and Rothschilds are no different. Ultimately it comes down to who they would feel more comfortable dealing with and it isn't a bunch of businessmen they don't know and therefore probably cannot reason or negotiate with.... Not long until we find out but not one for the fainthearted and definitely not a T20 play IMHO but DYOR etc. and make your own decision... GLA

So sorry to see this guys and my best wishes go to every one of you who invested here. I lost 11k on Aero Inventory a few years back and so I do speak from bitter experience but life goes on - stay strong and good luck.