Member Info for nuri123a

Balance sheet of €115 million cash isnt bad for a company serving a fraction of the customers Royal Mail is...

Derek - here, have a look at the first page of their annual report to see how much An Post has failed:
- Sales - €897m
- Profit - €41.2m
Balance Sheet Cash: €115m
99% Funded Pension Scheme
Parcel volume up 40% (Yes, you've read right)
96.4% of customers satisfied

Derek - dogmatic thinking in the face of facts isn't a good basis for investment.

Derek - Royal Mail has and is being priced as a complete basket case. My definition of a basket case is a share price collapse of >50% in less than 12 months.... not many in FTSE meet that definition. You can insult the Irish postal service all you like but they are making the right call in terms of commercialising their offering and loosening the restrictions in terms of pricing etc... Without a severe overhaul of USO and soon, the share price will easily go sub £2.00 in the absence of profit maintainence and/or growth. I'm willing to hold on to see the wonderful capital markets day results and will gladly divest if I am not happy with the strength of their proposition.

Looks like they are short termers in shorting - having looked at how long they shorted other companies.... don't expect them to hang around long with this one.

New shorter joining the band wagon taking short positions above 6%....

Fruitster - if Royal Mail deliver £530 million EBITDA - expect the share price to stay the same. If they deliver £499 million or below, expect the share price to go down at least 10%. If they deliver somewhere in the middle, share price will probably go down 3-4%. If they have EBITDA above £530 million, share price could easily go up 10% on the day. If they do not deliver at least £495 million or above, I am selling up entirely - promise!

Derek - a 400% increase in profits and its a basket case - what does that make Royal Mail with a drop of profits going on over 50%? You have selective definition syndrome to support deflecting away from RMG's fundamental issues. Do you know what you are talking about? I wonder - what with you being a Corbynite and wanting privatisation of Royal Mail as the solution to the problems they face...

My BP must be regulated by algorithms.... yes - these algos are moving it down deliberately when demand for shares are high and supply is low.... that really adds up....

Derek - really... closing local post offices and consolidating and charging a reasonable price for a postage stamp.... Well something has gone terribly bad...

Redceo - really not going to argue that black is white and white is black. The 'buys' and 'sells', if they were truly accurate, would mean the share price goes up. It doesn't take an economist or mathematician to figure that out. As demand rises beyond supply, the natural law of the markets, is that the share price goes up, unless you believe that are innate forces at work to rig the market for shares, which I don't believe there is. In relation to the shorters - I would say 5% or more of stock out on loan is a hell of a lot and that's what we know of. The simply reality is that the share price is on the way down. I'm not going to laud it, when it goes up a few pence from being almost 400 pence down... I will make my decisions on this as the evidence presents itself and as the share price fluctuates. We have a postal regulator that is stuck in medieval times - the USO obligations need to be revisited and quickly - otherwise there won't be a private provider of mail services going forward. All RMG needs is another 10%-20% reduction in letter volumes and they are in loss.

Vol sold - vol bought : impossible to believe this is accurate at all ever.... I don't believe it for a minute..

Don't make me laugh Redceo - both of those are outside my control.... Share price going down in run up to results is very bad - it says to shorters come on ahead join the band wagon - the only way is down....

Well, us Irish are not thick. This is how to run a post office network:
https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/profits-at-an-post-surge-by-400pc-while-it-closes-offices-38067319.html?fbclid=IwAR1k73ODzJVLJ4PYCVU69-rk1mknxdoWYXxzl_AlsLOMDTsIzPTfkdXckhI

Interesting - we all feel its on the turn upwards and it suddenly lurches into the £2.40s... We're in May now - anniversary of the record £6.21 and we're at £2.48 and downtrend firmly continues.... The markets have priced this as a failing company with limited growth prospects...

Zero chance.

Charlie - you didn't read properly... of course, that's not my current portfolio - a lot of them are gone now... current portfolio: RMG (28%); Aviva (22%); Lloyds (15%); AIB (13%); AA (12%); Sainsbury (10%). As you can see, highly weighted to RMG. The last investments were short-term and I bailed from all in good time - making a profit on many. Fastjet my worst investment, but ironically it didn't fall as fast as Royal Mail and its all but bust.

Level headed investor - as always POD - you don't dismiss everything that people say and I do agree with you, people are pricing in future speculative development. People always look at me and think he is so negative. There are reasons - I followed people's innate and irrational positivity in other stocks - Monitise, Fastjet, Carillion, Debenhams, Quindell - and fortunately the only one I got stung badly on was Fastjet (for 40k). All the others I got out well the shit hit the fan. One must maintain a realistic view of a company and unfortunately that will not always be positive. I am not going to be fully swayed by those who only see upside. Whilst I have said in the past that £2.50 is my cut-off point - realistically, £2.00 is the absolute cut off... if it goes that low, it really is being priced for failure. I am happy with the views I have expressed - yes, they vary, but I'd rather be shunned by people than be swayed by people to the point of blind faith. As it happens, on balance, the company has better prospects than even I can see now. Unfortunately, however, how people can think the share price will react any differently to the full years results vs. the last three RNSs - where the results will be broadly the same - is beyond me. The Capital Markets Day is being built as the Messiah - I really think people will be let down. Happy to be proved wrong. Rico's track record so far is poor, the RNSs released juvenile and with no substance on what they will tangibly do other than pay a progressive dividend. A progressive dividend can only realistically be built on solid, growing profits - Royal Mail isn't anywhere near that. On balance, RMG is a mediocre company - a 4-5 out of 10.

I am merely saying the stock market is entirely fickle - and I don't see any rationality in how shareholders respond to different news.... if I was an Apple shareholder with sales dropping nearly a fifth - I don't think I would be adding to my position. With RMG - sales have been increasing year on year and it makes a profit each and every year.... and its down 62% in a year. It just doesnt make sense that people continue selling out.

Apple Iphone sales down 17% (makes letter volume fall look like chicken feed) and Apple share price goes up 5% afterhours.... stupid shareholders.... something severely wrong in the stock market....

£350 million EBITDA is not poor trading - sorry - we operate different definitions. They've invested millions in improving the business and thats bound to cost a lot of money...