Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
HE1 previously mentioned they planned to source a "containerized" drilling rig and were looking at a few possibilities in the USA. It sounds like this trip secure a rig so HE1 have switched to plan B and have found a rig in the general area that will "probably" allow them to drill.
The Q3 timescale is getting tight now - Q3 starts in under 40 days, hence HE1 mentioning Q3/4 now. They cannot afford further problems with securing rigs/contractors to drill before the rainy season.
The oil producers will gradually reduce the amount of crude oil that is converted to petrol and diesel over the next decade or so. The global demand for energy will keep rising and hydrogen could take off as a cleaner way of energy (electricity) generation in the future rather than building coal or gas peaker plants. The hydrogen economy isn't going to take-off overnight - IMO it will take off slowly and if practical will really take off within the next 10 years.
So it looks like BAU with the original buyer having completed their DD etc. IMO the original buyer wants to mine the PGMs. Dmitry is the PGM mining expert and probably tied up in the sale of the PGM area.
Recently EUA mentioned expansion into the hydrogen economy (AKA green energy). The latest RNS says "A parallel business development strategy based on the Hydrogen Economy forms a new development arm of the Company." So could Artem Matyushok be working on a sale of the hydrogen resources to a big player within energy like Shell?
Say some institutional shorters have borrowed 40M shares and want to buy them in the open market tomorrow. On a typical day over the past month there are fewer than 20M shares traded in total.
The MMs may drop the share price, but they need to find enough people who are willing to sell. Most LTHs won't be selling , so the MMs will be hoping to grab any shares where people have put on stop losses. This trick has been done so many times that they won't get many cheap shares. The EUA bashers have been spreading FUD to shake shares from the nervous holders. There aren't going to be that many traders selling at under 7p, as they probably bought anywhere between 6p and 9p recently.
If they cannot get sufficient shares by dropping the price, they may switch to raising the price to tempt traders to sell. Hopefully not enough holders will sell and we could see a short squeeze like what happened with GameStop.
From memory during the last suspension, the SP went to 0.00 with a "!" symbol on LSE to indicate suspension. During suspension the shares cannot be traded on the open market, so have an indicated value of 0.00p. The "!" disappears briefly around the last trading day of the month on LSE probably due to automated LSE "housekeeping" and comes back again if still suspended. Incidently, I think people can privately trade suspended shares at any agreed price between the 2 parties. There was 1 poster offering to buy another poster's holdings during the last suspension although I don't know if they concluded the transaction.
Buys exceeding sells today by over 10:1 (200K sells, over 2M buys). MMs have previously been dropping SP to panic holders and today seem to be letting it rise and buyers are still piling in at above 10p. Will see a flurry of sells at above the psychological 10p barrier for a while.
Builder12, I assume the algo has 95% accuracy rate. If it mis-categorises all of the 5% buys as sells, this throws out the figures by 10%. I know the algo isn't 100% accurate and when my buy shows as a sell this is hopefully flags that I've got in a bit cheaper than average.
At the start of the day (1st 30 mins or so), volume of buys were almost 3x that of sells and SP was rising (12.5p+). A bit later the sells were slightly exceeding buys and SP dropped back to just below 12p. Buys were 1.8x sells when I looked. SP has dropped to around 11.6p and sells 30mins ago were still exceeding buys (bringing buy:sell ratio down to 1.6:1).
What caused this? IMO people overnight realised EUA was on top performing list and decided to buy in at bell so as not to miss the boat. Price spiked and probably the traders are taking some profit. What has surprised me today is even with the price falling back below 12p, the sells still seem to be exceeding buys...
Russia invading Ukraine has caused the current spike in the Nickel price (almost doubled in the past month). Russia currently mines 17% of the World's supply. This percentage will increase once EUA start mining...
These transactions look like shorts closing:
15-Mar-22 12:41:46 0.0956 125,305 Unknown* 119.79 O
15-Mar-22 12:41:46 0.09556 -125,305 Unknown* -119.74 O
15-Mar-22 10:28:18 0.1029 47,392 Unknown* 48.77 O
15-Mar-22 10:28:18 0.10299 -47,392 Unknown* -48.81 O
15-Mar-22 10:19:23 0.1014 141,211 Unknown* 143.19 O
15-Mar-22 10:19:23 0.1015 -141,211 Unknown* -143.33 O
15-Mar-22 10:47:27 0.1009 973,405 Unknown* 982.17 O
15-Mar-22 10:47:27 0.101 -973,405 Unknown* -983.14 O
15-Mar-22 10:43:47 0.1012 626,733 Unknown* 634.25 O
15-Mar-22 10:43:47 0.1013 -626,733 Unknown* -634.88 O
15-Mar-22 10:42:12 0.1013 2,525,564 Unknown* 2,558 O
15-Mar-22 10:42:12 0.1014 -2,525,564 Unknown* -2,561 O
15-Mar-22 10:38:41 0.10 8,000,000 Unknown* 8,000 O
15-Mar-22 10:38:41 0.10001 -8,000,000 Unknown* -8,001 O
15-Mar-22 10:33:00 0.1029 181,660 Unknown* 186.93 O
15-Mar-22 10:33:00 0.103 -181,660 Unknown* -187.11 O
15-Mar-22 10:27:39 0.0985 2,624,993 Unknown* 2,586 O
15-Mar-22 10:27:39 0.09851 -2,624,993 Unknown* -2,586 O
15-Mar-22 10:12:10 0.1016 790,597 Unknown* 803.25 O
15-Mar-22 10:12:10 0.1017 -790,597 Unknown* -804.04 O
15-Mar-22 10:10:26 0.1016 4,916,469 Unknown* 4,995 O
15-Mar-22 10:10:26 0.1017 -4,916,469 Unknown* -5,000 O
15-Mar-22 09:46:27 0.0967 193,295 Unknown* 186.92 O
15-Mar-22 09:46:27 0.0968 -193,295 Unknown* -187.11 O
15-Mar-22 08:28:39 0.0897 2,209,744 Unknown* 1,982 O
15-Mar-22 08:28:39 0.08979 -2,209,744 Unknown* -1,984 O
15-Mar-22 08:24:15 0.0897 805,657 Unknown* 722.67 O
15-Mar-22 08:24:15 0.08979 -805,657 Unknown* -723.40 O
15-Mar-22 08:23:02 0.0897 769,127 Unknown* 689.91 O
15-Mar-22 08:23:02 0.08979 -769,127 Unknown* -690.60 O
15-Mar-22 12:16:49 0.0953 1,531,500 Unknown* 1,460 O
15-Mar-22 12:16:49 0.09531 -1,531,500 Unknown* -1,460 O
Could there be some news on the way shortly?
The 2 most likely BRICS countries are China and South Africa IMO. Both tend to have more socialist/communist policies than the USA and West. Russia has good existing trade relations with China and SA, so there's less chance of tit-for-tat sanctions being imposed between Russia and these BRICS countries. Could be BAU between Russia, China and South Africa. I live in SA and several ANC ministers broadly support Putin. One minister was in hot water with the president for saying that Russia should withdraw from Ukraine.
https://www.businessinsider.co.za/russia-reminds-south-africa-of-apartheid-and-diplomatic-relations-2022-2
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-02-27-pretoria-scrambles-to-repair-relations-with-russia-after-calling-for-invasion-force-to-leave-ukraine/
EUA was previously suspended in February 2020 at around 7p and came out of suspension in July 2020 at around 14p. It is almost unbelievable to see the price back at around the same level as it was 2 years ago!
The share price has kept dropping over this past week and we are down almost 40%, yet the buys exceed the sells each day. IMO the price is being manipulated down to remove shares from nervous PIs at historically low prices during this period of uncertainty and being bought up by big investment firms and braver PIs. The confusing thing is where are the TR1s if that is the case.
I'm continuing to hold and I've bought a few more shares recently, but bought a bit early and paid 9p for them.
Good thread title MrBasse. You start to question your investment decision when dozens of people come on and say EUA won't sell now etc etc after this black swan event. As other posters have said, these people probably don't even have a short against EUA and are probably looking for a cheaper entry price. The BOD has been working diligently for decades to add value to EUA and bring better shareholder value. They announced a liquidity event and IMO it will still happen, but the timescales will probably be pushed back until after the dust settles with the war in Ukraine.
I still have my modest core holding, but have also been trading over the past few years (mainly to increase the amount of shares but I did take out my initial investment when I sold a few at 37p). The price dropping below 10p was a complete shock, but also a buying opportunity (although I had limited funds). I've now increased my core holding in EUA and I'll sell a few when the price recovers again (at around 15p).
The big positive in the recent RNS is EUA are dealing with BRICS countries (probably China and South Africa) and Japan rather than dealing with the USA. Russia already has established trade links with both China and South Africa. They have more cocialist/communist policies and viewsthan the USA and the West.
The buyer was prepared to pay over 5% more than the ask to secure this substantial purchase. There were slightly more sells than buys recorded and today was slightly quiet transaction wise (£122.7K vs £119.1K). If all 3 transactions were from the same buyer they must be pretty confident to buy over £60K of UFO shares today!
IMO the Renergen Helium discovery in South Africa could affect Helium prices if they managed to sink a well and started production. They seem to be slightly behind HE1 with their timescales. They don't have an accurate estimate of the amount of Helium that is underground yet, but it could be a similar size to the Helium at Rukwa.
Conservatively they are estimating around 1 Billion cubic metres (35Bcf), but there could be almost 10x that amount, making the potential Helium resource even larger than Rukwa's 138Bcf resource.
He1 need to start producing ASAP, to take advantage of the current constrained supply to have a good profit margin. If/when Renergen start producing the price of Helium could start dropping as production starts to meet the demand.
I suspected that the EUA plunge was a major over reaction on Thursday and they were a gift at under 10p. I sold my stake in HE1 (the only share in my portfolio other than EUA that was still in profit) and used the funds to buy EUA. Put a limit sell of just under 15p on yesterdays shares I bought and the deal was was executed. Made over 50% profit after dealing costs in a day. I had to pay around 5% extra to buy back into HE1 and used the profit to increase my holdings of OMI (brought my average down).