Member Info for npwharf

Event was attended by Joan Yu of Blake Morgan.

She is a Partner specialising in corporate finance, corporate advisory, ECM and mergers and acquisitions (public/private).

Probably not there just for the free pens.

#jointhedots

Because you can write any old rubbish on X, whilst ASX has rules and regulations.

Solar is just a smoke screen to divert attention away from the gas issues - they have no money at all to progress the Solar, its a pipedream at this stage.

They need about 7 to 10 million dollars (aussie) over the next 12 months - combination of operational costs at current quarterly run rate, plus 2 new drills to speed up the dewatering. Given the market cap that would mean 60% plus dilution if all funded by equity. I've hoping therefore that debt forms a bigger chunk - probably convertible loan stock, but who knows.

As for Kala, Tlou's 25% share of 500 KW profit is a rounding error on the balance sheet.

I really don't know how they got into this mess. Pains me to say it, but Donks has been right all along - the decision making by management has been really poor at best . As for the comms / RNSs / posts on twitter - less said the better. For example, in Oct they said Substation and Grid connection was almost there and would be completed by end of 2025 - now it's 2 to 3 months away. How did they not know that in Oct ??

really not looking good in terms of every getting our money back - back of *** packet calculations says they need minimum 7 million aussie dollars for the next 12 months (that would include money for two drills to get l4 and l6 flowing) and market cap only 11 million or so. on top of that they now own ilc 5 million for the loan theyve fully utilised.

unless they raise debt, dilution will be terrible.

kala (if they actually get it to work) unlikely to bring in more than £100k in 2026, so basically 6 months of cc salary, so that wont make a dent on the balance sheet, although obviously commercialising the gas is a great first step.

mentioing solar is a joke, unless kala fully fund it.

not looking great.

From what I can work out, Kala have picked up the tab for the data centre but (so far) have not provided any loan facility - wonder if this is contingent on successful commissioning of the generators ?

Tlou have maxed out their ILC loan of 5 million, so that's now empty unless ILC release more funds.

Based on their cash in bank and the operational spend run rate, I'd guess they have about 1 month left before they run out of cash (technically insolvent). Not exactly ideal but assume either Kala or Dr Cambell will cough up more given what they've invested to date.

"Under the agreement, Kala will provide funding to develop the project, covering costs for Tlou to drill and complete"

This was meant to be an interest free loan, so where are the funds ?

The share price performance and failure to supply commercial gas over the last few years tells me you've been right so far Donks. My only criticism of you has been the failure to try and be objetive about any news, the endless negativity means I frequently skip your comments, which is a shame given that there is sometimes useful info in there. Anyway, hopefully here's to a new start.

I see that Lefoko Moagi, the former Minister of Minerals & Energy, is up on corruption charges, wonder if Tlous failure to slip him a brown envelop has slowed things down.

Nice picture of the generators just released on Twitter / X so just gas tie in and integration to go

Forgot to mention that the Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA) has set February 10 as the date for the public hearing regarding BPC's request for a 46% tariff hike from April

Obviously, if approved (no idea how long that would take), it wouldn't effect the current PPA gas selling price but it would help future negotiations (assuming Tlou ever gets the gas out of the ground commercially)

I'm guessing 4 to 6 weeks to integrate the generator with the gas line and data centre modules. So if the generator arrived 9th December, they've had enough time to sort it - even given the near one month shut down in Botswana for Christmas and New Year. The market just needs to hear that some revenue has been achieved, that way a significant milestone will have been reached - monitisation of the gas reserves for the first time.

Tidd83 - that's a blast from the past ! Not thought about him for years, but remember him being one of Tlou's biggest cheerleaders many moons ago.

Surprised this BB is still activity, thought LSE would delete it once Tlou was delisted.

So what is everyopne expecting from the update at the end of this month ? For me, all I'm focused on is whether they've achieved first revenue, gas flow and the current cash (or rather lack of) / funding.

And the share price went up

Yep, that about sums it up. They've achieved nothing in last 6 months (except substation has gone from 85% to 90% complete) and they don't have enough money to get over the line. Awesome.

Nicely summed up Gohanito. Tlou has been a massive disappointment for years, just wished I'd sold earlier. On the plus side the management have just given up talking to shareholders for over a year now, so at least they can't promise any more deadlines that we all know they'll miss.

Glad I'm not the only one finding the radio silience from management very odd. They're meant to be going into production this year and have not done a single interview for over 12 months. Surely we're massively overdue an update.

Not sure that 3.5% yield is right, closer to 1.5% I think for the quarter.

15% coupon would suggest that there's still a reasonable element of risk though. Good to see they've utilised debt rather than yet more equity at this low share prices level.

Hoping for some interview from the management team, they've been far too quiet recently.

We're all doomed, Captain Mainwaring.

Not sure I agree with you Donks re BPC pricing. Currently BPC are buying from Mozambique at over 40c and TLOU original PPA was around 10c I think, so TG definitely has wiggle room to charge BPC more even if he doesn't have full control.

They're connected but need to finish the substations.

AIM is to get power into the grid by mid year once they've closed on the 6/7 million AUD they still need

Great news, send a great message that BPOPF still support the project. I think TLOU still need about 6 / 7 AUD million to get to first revenue though. Maybe the Dr can stump up now as he's been diluted.