Member Info for npwharf

Pint of Bitter, perhaps?

They run out of cash

Old.. hopefully the chats TG having in Bots are going well, otherwise it's lights out as you say... (hopefully if that happened the good Dr would step in, but not guarenteed) ......

The ability of the Group to continue as a going concern is dependent upon completing a capital raise or securing other forms of financing within the next two months.

Brad,

I like you're positivity but TLOU have not passed the point of possible failure - commercial gas flow has not been confirmed and they don't have funds to get electricity into the grid or drill anymore wells.

Even if funds do arrive, possibility still exists that exisiting LTH will be diluted further still (maybe significantly).

Significant progress has been made, albeit painfully slowly, but still a fair way to go.

TG currently in Bots trying to sort it. We also have the Dr waiting in the wings but his equity stake already very high, so debt from Bots would be better. I'm reasonably comfortable that they'll get the cash they need but far less comfortable about how long it'll take to do so. Happy to be proved wrong though on the timescales.

It's not progressed because they need money, which they currently don't have. Discussions ongoing with BPF to remedy this situation. Hopefullly.

Winni - some people may suggest that Tlou's failure to hand over brown paper bags may be slowing things down a bit

I meant correct, not corrected. Wish there was an edit function of these boards.

I'll never understand Donks what's motivated you for years to post on this board with constant negativity, often disguised as a probing, harmless questions. Thing is, alot of what you've posted over the years has been corrected but mostly been ignored by people given you're so blatently one sided. Ironically, you're as bad as the rampers who you claim to detest.

Almost everone invested here understands the huge risks involved is getting a nascent CBM company off the ground in an African country. Many of us, including me, have been somewhat naive in understanding the complexities and timescales involved, but I'm still invested.

If TLOU can raise the finances they need, and that's still an if, and they can get decent, commercial flow rates then power could be sold to BPC by early Q3. That would be a game changer.

Maybe engaging in healthy, balanced discussion would be beneficial for all, but I won't hold my breath.

Brad - I saw you're earlier messages, hope you're on the mend.

Oil at 10 month high, UOG SP slowly falling off a cliff...... assume market knows something I don't

Given the performance of the company / share price over the last few years hardly unexpected the lukewarm response to the raise. Issue now is the 3.5 million Aus$ the company are short to get power into grid.

Up to 50% covered by the Dr, so they only need to get minimum 50% away - let's see whether they can pull that off.

Understand you're thought pattern but unfortunately buying on the open market doesn't help the company one iota - buying through the open offer drops funds straight into Tlou balance sheet and help them achieve their objectives, which in turn should help the share price.

Nice to see CC take up his full allocation.

No one will be happier than me if I'm being far too conservative with my market cap estimates, but I'd rather remain cautious until they're in the grid selling gas. If drilling is successful then market may fall in firmly behind the story and, combined with any shift in the gas from 2P into 1P, then higher SP are perfectly possible. One massive tail wind though will continue to be the issue of confetti at these low SPs - shares in issue were around 380K I think when I first invested and likely to be closer to the 1.5 billion mark by the time they're finished, so even with much higher market caps estimated that'll have a big impact on SP. Obviously I understand the need to raise significant finance to get into the grid but disappointed it hasn't been more debt based than equity, or at least issued at higher SPs.

BTS - feel your pain re 16/17p highs, wished I'd bailed at that price, but here we are down at 2p. Obvious option is to ask yourself whether tlou are in better shape now than then, and whether you believe in the story - if you do, then averaging down would be the way forward, if you have the cash.

I've always estimated a market cap of 10x revenue. So they've always guided that 10MW of generation could provide annual revenue of approximately US$10m, so that would equate to circa $100 million market cap by 2026 if everything goes to plan. That's about £80 million or circa 7p a share (assuming about 1.1 billion shares in issue).

Not sure the same logic works for 100 MW given the very significant capital required to get enough wells producing, so I think they'll look to sell for a premium after proof of concept / 10 MW reached.

Glad to see Orapa bid has been kicked into the long grass finally, as Appi points out the number of wells and associated funds required made it a pipe dream at this stage in my opinion.

I think the company need to be clearer on estimated total funds required to get power into the grid, and a breakdown of use of those funds including number of wells required. The constant drip feeding of funding is beginning to feel like a death by a thousand cuts with no clear explanation on use of funds.

Agree with the comments on here, this raise leaves a bad taste in the mouth as it's just letting a mate in through the back door at the expense of keeping the SP depressed. This could have been done on the open market.

You're probably right, maybe I was just being naive.

Anyhow, I'm happy with the results. Roll on H2 production guidance.

MSA - the RNS states ASH-8 well commenced production on 16 March at an initial stabilised rate of 656 bopd (net) with a 32/64" choke.

Per the RNS, even with a 64/64" choke (based on a 6.5 hour test), the net to UOG would only double so not sure where the 4892 is coming from.

I worked it out as approx 7.3 million GBP, so the out by a factor of 10 almost.

Still a great result though, but talk of panic buying and 5 baggers are a little amiss.