Member Info for NotBot

BC100 writes: "I have seen mention on this site to a trading update in November so I am hoping that might be when we are given this additional detail."

A quick look at past RNSes shows that MCRO released trading statements on 20th Nov 2019, and 18th Nov 2020 (both Wednesdays). So my money's on MCRO issuing a trading statement on Wednesday 17th or 24th November this time round.

I'm not 100% sure, but I think Ecotricity attempted a hostile takeover of Good Energy in the past with a similar outcome. After that failed it seems like they held onto their Good Energy holding. If they follow that pattern then I'd expect Ecotricity to hold, and maybe try to rock the boat again in a couple of years' time.

PFD won't be alone with those challenges, and I think the general sense that the government doesn't have a good answer to this and other issues the country is facing does mean we'll see inflation rise, which also means that PFD will likely charge their customers more for their products - as will their competitors.
So overall I don't anticipate a significant effect on profits for PFD: Inflation is expected, so PFD charging more for their products shouldn't be a surprise to their customers.
Meanwhile it's reassuring that PFD has been so active in reducing its' debt with the prospect of rising interest rates; that should mean it's well-placed to cope with any such rises.

I suggest googling for "fake news Lieutenant Colonel Theresa Long" where you'll find various results from which you can draw your own conclusions. (tl;dr: It's nonsense, just get yourself jabbed)

Fair point Camboy. In this situation I lean towards taking the proceeds slightly earlier if there's only a small cost involved, particularly if I've spotted an interesting opportunity for the proceeds and if there's a long time to wait for the takeover to play out - so I've taken the opportunity to check the timetable, and it seems that the 'Effective Date' is late October, with the payout no more than 14 days after that, which isn't such a long time. Maybe it's worth waiting after all.

I found an article about the car crash of a systems upgrade for Travis Perkins which it seems is still not over,
https://www.theregister.com/2021/10/06/travis_perkins_opts_for_oracle/
which got me thinking about what IT systems SIG might be using. The best I can find is from the 2018 FY results (8th March 2019) which suggests this is an area that SIG has been working on, but more recent results don't provide anything to flesh this out - so I wonder if anyone on here has experiences or links to share on the subject...?

I was absolutely convinced that there'd be at least one more bidder (not necessarily Amazon), also that even with the 2 bidder auction we'd go above £3, so I got that wrong, so the modest September top-up I made at £2.93 was a mistake.
Having disproved my credentials, I'll now predict that the price will move a bit closer to the £2.87 bid price over the next 2 weeks once the in-a-hurry sellers have left. I guess there's an outside chance of some as-yet unannounced 3rd bidder surfacing, but I think we'd at least have had rumours of this by now if that was a realistic possibility. I expect I'll hold for another week before cashing in my MRW chips.

The article states that "The BT Group share price has dropped by more than 18% below its all-time high" which is false (consider BT's share price a few years back), so if that's the strength of the author's research I don't hold much by his conclusions (that said, I'm very sceptical of "Technical Analysis" as a method of valuing shares so even if he'd got his basic research right I'd still not be that interested in his analysis).

I like to check Ilika's Twitter feed occasionally - from yesterday "Installation of cleanroom & principal equipment now complete",

https://twitter.com/Ilikaplc/status/1433023543680319493?s=20

Interesting to read the linked article, but strange that there's no mention of the tax credits BT will be taking advantage of for that capex. Maybe that explains the price hit, if everyone's forgotten about those.
"For qualifying expenditures incurred from 1 April 2021 up to and including 31 March 2023, companies can claim in the period of investment: a super-deduction providing allowances of 130% on most new plant and machinery investments that ordinarily qualify for 18% main rate writing down allowances, a first year allowance of 50% on most new plant and machinery investments that ordinarily qualify for 6% special rate writing down allowances"
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/new-temporary-tax-reliefs-on-qualifying-capital-asset-investments-from-1-april-2021/new-temporary-tax-reliefs-on-qualifying-capital-asset-investments-from-1-april-2021

I'm not a believer in technical analysis, but I do think there are underlying reasons that support your optimism: Any IPO overhang from underwriters and anyone else making a quick buck by selling shares they bought below the price they can sell them at on the open market is now behind us, and Tremor does look to be making all the right moves - so yes I see no reason Tremor shouldn't head upwards now.

Looks like the SIG cat is very much alive and well: Happy to hold SIG during its turnaround, looking forward to good things from this share.

A poster on here pointed out a Moody's upgrade last year which made for interesting reading; I thought I'd see if anything had changed... and indeed it has,
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-outlook-on-Premier-Foods-ratings-to-positive-assigns--PR_446863?cid=7QFRKQSZE021
(if LSE mangles that link just google for "moodys premier foods" - the relevant article is dated 19th May 2021: "Moody's changes outlook on Premier Foods ratings to positive, assigns B1 to the new notes")

Feels a bit too 'comfortable' for this to go through at 254p (Fortress offer), I wonder if CD+R will come back with a counter-bid: Just because their initial bid was rejected doesn't mean that was their final offer and they may be encouraged by Apollo stepping aside.

Great, thanks @MikeM14. I've been in and out (mostly in) of MRW since pre- Morrisons buying Safeway so I'll have had most of those and more - I don't think my shares quite count as 'free' yet, but they've certainly paid well while I've had them. As for me, I'm holding out for a higher offer, I don't believe it'll go for the current low-ball bid when there are multiple bidders in play.

I'm looking forward to next week when the dust from the IPO will have finally settled: I think the price at the moment is still being held back by the additional shares taken up by the underwriters (@ $19) (see the most recent RNS re. over-allotment option). With Tremor currently at $20.50 there's a quick (small) profit to be had. There have been days recently though where there's been a rocket under the share price, so once that underwriters' overhang is cleared I do expect the share price to go well above it's current level, particularly once we get the interim results (late September).

@mattwsh2904: Remember to include dividends when you're considering what "break even" means for you (but also inflation). I'm guessing adjusting for those your £2.75 entry would be lower so you'll already have achieved "break even". Going from FY2013 onwards (mid-calendar-year 2013 onwards): 13 + 13.65 + 5 + 5.43 + 6.09 + 6.6 + 6.77 + 7.15 (I googled for "morrisons dividend history"). So that's a total of 63.69p; I think that might be ignoring special dividends so perhaps even higher.
Always worth considering any dividends received when weighing up one's profit or loss.

I expect it's more that "The board recommends" - it'll still need a shareholders' vote to approve the deal. The board wasn't recommending the original offer which is the difference with the new offer.
Me, I'm looking forward to a bidding war now, I don't think this current bid is the last one.

Doh, turns out to be my misunderstanding; Tosca have indeed reduced, the number of shares I was quoting was the number of Tremor shares issued, not those owned by Tosca. Correcting my figures (having re-read those RNSes),
RNS 9th June: 15.9% corresponding to 21,712,529 shares
RNS 29th June: 13.7% corresponding to 20,454,226 shares

Thought I'd call out a misunderstanding on this thread:
With the recent US listing there are now more TRMR shares overall, so the % figures given in "Holding(s) in Company" RNSes is confusing. The RNS of 29th June gives the impression that Tosca have reduced their position if you consider just the percentage holding, but considering the number of shares shows up something different. Looking at the previous Tremor/Tosca RNS of 9th June makes this clearer,
RNS 9th June: 15.9% corresponding to 136,190,262 shares
RNS 29th June: 13.7% corresponding to 149,728,168 shares
So Tosca has actually increased their holding!